CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- Political turmoil in Venezuela is threatening
to inflict more pain on an economy that is already suffering its worst
recession in decades.
After the de facto dissolution of Congress this week by an assembly
controlled by President Hugo Chavez, the Caracas stock market fell five
percent. And Venezuelan bonds are fast losing their value.
Chavez says a new Congress will be established in the coming months, but
for now all power in Venezuela appears to be concentrated in the president,
his generals and a constitutional assembly packed with his supporters.
The political upheaval is scaring off investors, economists say, further
dimming Venezuela's economic prospects.
Venezuela's benchmark stock index rose 1.9 percent Wednesday, but
analysts said that was largely due to bargain-hunting after five straight
sessions of losses. Also, trading volume was extremely low.
Investors are nervous "that there is no rule of law, that they're dissolving
Congress against Congress's will," said Pedro Palma, a private economist
in
Caracas. "This is something the government must measure with great care
because the consequences for Venezuela can be tremendously adverse."
Chavez, a former coup leader carrying out what he calls a "peaceful, social
revolution," has gained some economic breathing room with a recent
rebound in oil prices, Venezuela's main export product.
But unlike past years, when a higher oil prices meant automatic recovery,
the
economy is showing few signs of coming back to life.
Economists project the economy will contract as much as 8 percent this
year
after shrinking 9.8 percent in the first quarter from the same period last
year.
Since Chavez came to office in February, 600,000 people have lost their
jobs, sending the unemployment rate to close to 20 percent. And for those
with jobs, monthly income is dropping steadily.
The confrontation between forces for and against Chavez came to a head
last week with violent street clashes. Television cameras transmitted images
worldwide of legislators climbing over a fence around the Congress building
in a futile attempt to retake their chambers from the assembly, which was
elected to write a new constitution.
Finance Minister Jose Rojas told reporters Tuesday that it was "natural"
for
investors to be cautious during times of historic transformations.
There are some positive signs. Higher oil prices, which have doubled since
March after hitting at a 12-year low last year, will enable Venezuela to
reduce its fiscal deficit to around 6 percent of gross domestic product
by
year-end, down from 8 percent now.
Inflation is also falling. The Central Bank also announced Wednesday that
prices rose an average 13.5 percent in the first eight months of the year,
down from 20.6 percent in the same period the previous year. Still,
economists say that's due to the collapse in demand and investment.
Investors are also concerned about what the new constitution will mean
for
business. Chavez, despite his background as a former leftist officer, insists
the new writ will guarantee respect for private property.
Chavez, who tried to overthrow the government seven years ago, has
exercised strict fiscal discipline since taking office, but shown little
willingness
to trim the country's bloated bureaucracy or send confidence-building signals
to corporations.
On Tuesday, Chavez named a new head of the huge state oil monopoly,
PDVSA, a day after the old one resigned. The new chief, Hector Ciavaldini,
is a trained chemical engineer with a doctorate from the University of
London. He is also considered one of Chavez's close allies.
"This is a mistake because Ciavaldini is there for strictly political reasons,
not
because of his capacity as an oil manager," said Palma, the economist.
Copyright 1999 The Associated Press.