WASHINGTON--If you want to see how cautious and
                        politically driven American foreign policy has become, there is
                        no better example than the Clinton administration's recent
                        half-step forward on Cuba.
                        Baltimore Orioles owner Peter Angelos will be visiting Havana this
                        weekend, serving in effect as a stalking horse for a slightly new U.S.
                        approach to Cuba. One might wonder whether it is wise to give a
                        role in foreign policy to the meddlesome owner who fired Davey
                        Johnson, the best manager in baseball.
                        Angelos will explore whether President Fidel Castro and his
                        government are willing to approve two exhibition games between the
                        Orioles and a Cuban team this spring, the first in Cuba and the
                        second in Baltimore. In the larger sense, his mission will test the
                        extent to which the Cuban leadership will give a role to
                        nongovernmental organizations outside its control.
                        The inside story of the Orioles and Cuba says a lot about what the
                        Clinton administration is and is not willing to do overseas in its final
                        two years.
                        During President Clinton's first term, his National Security Council
                        carried out a series of back-channel discussions with Cuba. The two
                        sides successfully worked out some practical issues, including an
                        immigration accord. They also explored other possibilities.
                        Meanwhile, Americans seeking to improve U.S. ties to Cuba
                        persuaded Angelos to endorse the idea of exhibition games between
                        the Orioles and Cuba.
                        There things stood in February 1996, when Cuban fighter jets shot
                        down two small planes belonging to the Miami-based Cuban exile
                        group Brothers to the Rescue.
                        The administration reacted with outrage. Madeleine Albright, then the
                        ambassador to the United Nations, accused the Cubans of
                        "cowardice." Congress passed and Clinton signed the Helms-Burton
                        Act, which tightened economic sanctions on Cuba and opened the
                        way for suits against foreign companies that invest in Cuba. The idea
                        of an easing of U.S. policy toward Cuba went into a deep freeze.
                        Last fall, things began to thaw. A bipartisan group of about 20
                        senators united behind a proposal by Sen. John W. Warner (R-Va.)
                        to appoint a presidential commission for a comprehensive review of
                        American policy toward Cuba. Former Secretaries of State Henry
                        A. Kissinger, George P. Shultz and Lawrence S. Eagleburger
                        endorsed the idea.
                        In other words, members of America's foreign policy establishment
                        and some congressional leaders were attempting to give the Clinton
                        administration the political cover and respectability needed for a
                        significant change in Cuba policy.
                        Two months ago, administration officials seemed interested in the
                        idea. They even discussed who might head the new Cuba
                        commission. Should it be Florida Gov. Lawton Chiles--who died last
                        month? Or former Clinton aide Thomas F. "Mack" McLarty?
                        But in late December, the White House got cold feet. Politics
                        intervened. Cuban exile groups voiced alarm that a commission might
                        recommend easing or lifting the 37-year-old trade embargo against
                        Cuba--as, indeed, it might have. Sen. Bob Graham (D-Fla.) and
                        some other members of Congress with Cuban constituencies weighed
                        in with concern about the commission.
                        Most important of all, Vice President Al Gore was unwilling to go
                        along. Gore isn't eager to arouse the ire of the Cuban community in
                        Florida, which could be an important state in his presidential race next
                        year.
                        Administration officials don't deny that politics was a factor. They
                        say it would have taken months to set up a Cuba commission, and
                        the panel might not have made its recommendations until early 2000,
                        in the midst of the presidential primary contests.
                        "While the commission had bipartisan support, the community that
                        really matters was strongly opposed," explained one U.S. official. "In
                        American politics, the people who really care about an issue carry
                        weight."
                        So the Clinton administration switched gears. It decided to announce
                        a series of small steps that will ease the trade embargo against Cuba.
                        Among these are resuming direct mail service to Cuba and loosening
                        the previous rules for sending money to Cuban families.
                        The administration's Cuba package still lacked a centerpiece. At the
                        last minute, Secretary of State Albright added one more component:
                        She said the administration was ready to go along with the old
                        proposal for the Orioles' exhibition games against the Cubans,
                        provided that the proceeds went to charities rather than the Cuban
                        regime.
                        "We decided that high-visibility exchanges were now appropriate,"
                        explained one policy-maker.
                        The organizers of the Orioles exhibition were stunned by Albright's
                        announcement; their plans weren't ready and hadn't been approved
                        by the Cubans. Nevertheless, Angelos will now sojourn to Havana to
                        see if he can work out two games in which the profits will go to
                        charities or other nongovernmental groups.
                        At issue is more than baseball. The underlying question is what kinds
                        of groups in Cuba will be defined as "nongovernmental"--and
                        therefore eligible to receive money from the United States. If the
                        definition is broad, the way would be open to broader financial
                        transactions between America and Cuba.
                        In a column last year, I predicted the Clinton administration might
                        unveil some bold initiatives in foreign policy soon after the 1998
                        elections were safely over. I put Cuba at the top of the list of
                        possibilities.
                        I was wrong. The administration moved on Cuba, all right, but it
                        made at best an incremental change. In the current milieu, even
                        appointing a commission is seen as too daring. Politics is a year-round
                        occupation now, in which there is no safe time for bold initiatives.