By Justin Webb
     BBC Washington correspondent

     There is an old saying that all politics is local. On the subject of America and
     Cuba the saying is spot on.

     Does President George W Bush walk the anti-Castro walk and talk the
     anti-Castro talk because he genuinely cares two hoots about the dictator in
     Havana? Probably not.

     It is true that the two leaders do not see eye to eye on a broad range of
     issues but that does not explain the Bush obsession with "freedom" in Cuba
     (as opposed to "freedom" in, say Saudi Arabia, or Egypt).

     The Bush view of Fidel Castro is shaped in Miami, Florida, where anti-Castro
     Cuban Americans continue to batter away at their old enemy and continue to
     vote (so the conventional wisdom goes) for anyone who joins their struggle.

     Bush sanctions plea

     Florida - you will remember - was a rather important state in the last
     presidential election.

     It took the Supreme Court to decide who had won the state and thus the right
     to govern the US.

     Next time the Bush people are keen that the court should not have to get
     involved. Florida must be sewn up.

     So any suggestion of reducing sanctions is anathema to the White House -
     indeed the president recently announced that he wanted to see them
     tightened.

     The president is particularly keen to see American tourists - with their wallets
     stuffed with dollars - kept away from Cuba.

     'Anachronistic battle'

     In theory violators of the travel ban to Cuba can face criminal penalties of up to
     $250,000 and 10 years in prison.

     Plenty of congressmen think that is crazy. Particularly since the end of the Cold
     War and the end - in most of the world - of communism.

     In a world where there are new battles to be fought with much more
     frightening enemies the fight against Fidel Castro looks more and more
     anachronistic.

     There are more important things for the law enforcement authorities to be
     doing with their time than, as one congressman put it, than "chasing
     grandmothers who use a travel agent in Canada to go and ride bicycles in
     Cuba".

     Market potential

     But all politics is local. And plenty of the anti-sanctions folk have their own local
     agendas as well.

     Chief among them are Republicans who represent farm states and see the juicy
     prospect of the American food industry getting the chance to trade with
     Havana.

     They and their supporters are no friends of Castro but they believe in making
     bucks rather that points.

     Who will win? The president has the power to veto the congressional doubters
     and keep the sanctions in place.

     If he wins next year's presidential election and Florida is an important part of
     that victory then he will be vindicated.

     If he loses or Florida does not play a key role - look for Fidel Castro to be
     swamped, finished off - by a tidal wave of American tourists.