BY JUAN O. TAMAYO
Fidel Castro's peculiar behavior in recent months has led the
U.S. State
Department to ask the CIA to update its psychological profile
of the 73-year-old
Cuban president for any hints of instability.
``We have asked the appropriate agencies to take a look at the
impact of aging
on Mr. Castro, a State Department official said Friday.
CIA analysts regularly write lengthy psychological profiles on
foreign leaders,
using both secret and public information to help Washington interpret
their actions
and predict future decisions. The reports are updated when the
behavior is
perceived to change or pose a risk to U.S. interests.
Word of the requested update on Castro came after Brian Latell,
the CIA's former
top Cuba analyst, told a Miami audience last month that he was
concerned that,
instead of mellowing, Castro might pursue riskier policies as
he ages.
Other communist rulers have taken impulsive and adventurous actions
in their late
years -- ``seeking a sentimental rediscovery of their revolutionary
roots, said
Latell, now a Georgetown University professor.
``It's been called `geriatric overexertion,' Latell said,
noting that China's Mao
Zedong was 73 when he launched the Cultural Revolution, Soviet
leader Nikita
Khrushchev was 68 when he deployed nuclear missiles to Cuba and
his
successor, Leonid Brezhnev, was 72 when he ordered troops into
Afghanistan.
``There are some who say that at age 73 Castro is mellowing, Latell
told a
University of Miami seminar on Cuba's post-Castro future. ``But
I am concerned
that we use too much the `rational actor' model.
BIZARRE ACTIONS
U.S. officials say Castro has been acting especially bizarre in
the case of Jose
Imperatori, the Cuban diplomat and alleged spy who resisted expulsion
orders
from the United States and Canada.
As evidence, they cite three rambling letters he wrote to Canadian
Prime Minister
Jean Chretien explaining Imperatori's unprecedented refusal to
leave Canada when
ordered. He repeatedly phoned Cuban diplomats in Washington to
micromanage
the case, knowledgeable officials said.
Castro is also credited with personally writing several exceptionally
long articles
in the Cuban Communist Party newspaper Granma defending Imperatori
and
Mariano Faget, a Cuban-born official of the Immigration and Naturalization
Service
arrested in Miami on spying charges last month.
One article went so far as to intimate that Cuban exiles had poisoned
U.S.
District Judge William Hoeveler, who was replaced on the Elian
Gonzalez case
after he suffered a stroke last month.
PHYSICALLY FIT
Castro seems physically fit these days, perhaps more so than most
men his age.
Though he walks with a slight limp, he has been pronounced healthy
by a number
of recent foreign visitors, including Illinois Gov. George Ryan.
But U.S. officials said the decision to ask the CIA to update
his profile dates back
to a series of incidents beginning in November that seemed to
indicate Castro
was showing the first signs of aging.
His speeches have become more rambling than usual, his digressions
longer and
less germane to the main topic, his attacks on enemies more bitter
and personal
than ever before, journalists in Cuba said.
Despite the impressive bladder control he has displayed through
scores of five-
and six-hour speeches since 1959, Castro abruptly interrupted
a news conference
on live television Oct. 30, apparently to relieve himself. ``Play
a little music or
something until I come back, he told the surprised TV producers
as he left his
seat in the middle of his speech.
Four days later, Castro used the respectful term compañero
for Gen. Jose
Abrantes, apparently forgetting that he had sent the former interior
minister to jail
on drug corruption charges. Abrantes died in prison in 1991.
BEWILDERING LETTER
On Nov. 29 he wrote a four-page, single-spaced letter to Rep.
Jim McDermott,
D-Wash., offering an almost unintelligible explanation for his
decision not to
attend an international trade conference in Seattle. He later
said the Seattle
police crackdown on street riots during the World Trade Organization
summit was
``worse than that unleashed by [Gen. Augusto] Pinochet after
his coup in Chile.''
More than 3,000 Chileans died as a result of political violence
following the coup.
By early December Castro was turning Elian Gonzalez into a national
icon,
ordering massive street protests that drained his poor country
of millions dollars in
transportation costs and by forcing the closing of dozens of
factories and schools.
Wayne Smith, former head of the U.S. diplomatic mission in Havana
and a
frequent visitor to Cuba, acknowledged that Castro's behavior
has become a topic
of discreet conversation in Havana.
``There are all these things that don't necessarily mean Castro
is going over the
hill, but certainly people are wondering . . .,'' Smith said.
Copyright 2000 Miami Herald