U.S. finds it increasingly difficult to punish the regime without hurting Cuban Americans.

By Paul Richter
Times Staff Writer

WASHINGTON — Fidel Castro's jailing of dissidents has driven U.S.-Cuban relations to their lowest point in years and sent Washington
scrambling to find ways to punish the dictator's regime.

But the White House's deliberations have been made amid pleas from newly arrived Cuban Americans: If you're going after Castro, don't hurt
our relatives on the island in the process.

Though some Cuban Americans have been urging President Bush to crack down on U.S. travel and remittances to the island, many recent
arrivals oppose it. And American farm interests are arguing against proposals to cut off commercial food sales to Cuba, which totaled nearly
$150 million last year.

The president has heard them. And when he unveils a new policy toward Cuba on Tuesday, he is likely to stick to milder measures, such as
efforts to aid Cuban dissidents and build an international coalition to exert pressure on the regime, according to some people close to the
process.

Ramifications for Bush

The White House knows that tough penalties would further divide the already fractured Cuban American community and could even cost Bush
reelection votes in the key state of Florida.

The administration's predicament reflects a growing dilemma for U.S. officials: As the two countries grow closer through steady Cuban
immigration to the U.S., it is becoming harder and harder to punish the Castro government without hurting Cuban American families as well.

In trying to bring democracy to Cuba, the United States "has to distinguish between the regime and the 11 million people who suffer under it,"
said Dennis K. Hays of the Cuban American National Foundation, a group that supports the long-standing U.S. embargo on Cuba but opposes a crackdown on
Cuban American travel and remittances.

The administration has been looking to step up pressure on Cuba since March, when Castro, fearing that he was losing control over pro-democracy groups,
rounded up 75 dissidents and jailed them for terms of up to 28 years. The crackdown, the toughest political repression in decades, was followed by the firing-squad
executions of three Cubans who hijacked a ferry in an attempt to flee to Florida.

Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said last month that the U.S. government was "reviewing all of our policies and our approach to Cuba." On Tuesday, the State
Department said 14 Cuban diplomats posted in the United States were being expelled for spying, one of the largest such expulsions since Castro assumed control in
1959.

Some longtime Cuban American activists have been urging the Bush administration to halt charter flights and remittances to the island because the cash they bring
helps sustain the impoverished regime.

Cuban Americans are permitted to send $1,200 apiece to family members each year. Remittances are Cuba's largest source of foreign exchange, estimated to total
between $800 million and $1 billion a year.

Cuban Americans also are allowed one flight home from the U.S. each year, and there are about three dozen weekly charter flights to the island. But the rule is not
carefully enforced, and experts say many Cuban Americans travel to Cuba several times a year.

One of the strongest voices in favor of halting the flights and the remittances has been the Cuban Liberty Council, a staunch pro-embargo group whose members
include many Cuban Americans whose families left the island at the time of the 1959 revolution.

Council representatives have met on the issue with key administration officials, including Otto J. Reich, the Cuban-born diplomat who is now White House special
envoy for Latin America.

But, significantly, the council's view is not shared by the Cuban American National Foundation, a longtime pro-embargo group from which the council split in 2001.

Hays, a former U.S. diplomat, said the U.S. should not stifle these family contacts because they build pressure for democracy and change within Cuba.

"It's my belief that Castro wants us to cut off remittances and family travel," he said. "That's what fuels the growth of the independence movement inside Cuba."

The idea of interrupting such contacts has become more politically problematic as the number of recent arrivals from Cuba has grown. About half of the foreign-born
Cuban Americans living in the Miami area, for example, began arriving in 1980.

The new arrivals are likely to be younger and poorer than those who came earlier, many of whom were from wealthy families in Cuba. The later arrivals are more
likely to be sending money to family members in Cuba and more inclined to want to ease up on the 4-decade-old ban on travel and trade, experts say.

Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), one of the leading congressional advocates of lifting the embargo, said that if the administration clamped down on travel and trade "it
would expose the widening divisions in South Florida" on the embargo issue.

"Most people there are on our side," said Flake, who is part of a congressional group that is pushing a bill to lift the embargo.

Steps May Be Ineffective

Daniel P. Erikson, head of Caribbean programs at the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington think tank, said a crackdown probably would prove ineffective in the
long run.

If the government sought to bar wire transfers, he said, many families would probably find other ways to send money to their relatives.

And if the U.S. halted direct charter flights from its cities, many Cuban Americans would go to Cuba via Canada, Mexico or other third countries — and most would
generate cash for Castro by flying Cubana, the national airline, he said.

Erikson said it would also be politically tricky for the Bush administration to cut off sales of U.S. agricultural products to the Castro government. Under a law signed
by President Clinton in 2000, Castro is allowed to purchase U.S. food as long as he pays with Cuba's limited supplies of cash.

The practice can be defended because it sends the regime's cash out of the country — and, in addition, benefits farm industries that are a prime Republican
constituency, Erikson noted.

"The problem is, the administration is in a bind," Erikson said. "There aren't a whole lot of good policy options left for them to take."

There is support in Congress and among activists for further increasing aid to dissidents in Cuba, for improving the U.S.-sponsored Radio Marti and TV Marti
broadcasts to the island, and for trying to draw other countries into multilateral efforts to pressure the Castro regime toward reform.

"A lot of members are behind all of these," said Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), a Cuban American lawmaker from the Miami area.

Tourist trade with Canada and Europe is Castro's most flourishing business with the outside world. Many European countries have condemned Castro for the
crackdown yet have been strongly opposed to the embargo. After the frictions over the Iraq war they might not be inclined to follow the U.S. lead on Cuba, some
experts say.

Risk of Exodus

There are also concerns that if the U.S. imposed tough measures, Castro might retaliate by allowing thousands of discontented Cubans to try to cross the Florida
Straits to the United States. That happened in 1980, when 125,000 Cubans floated the 90 miles to Florida, and in 1994, when about 30,000 made the journey.

Castro has repeatedly declared that the United States is trying to set off an exodus by slowing down the number of Cubans immigrants it accepts for resettlement
under immigration agreements reached in 1994 and 1995. U.S. officials usually accept a minimum of 20,000 Cubans a year, but they maintain that security steps
since the Sept. 11 attacks have sharply slowed the process.

U.S. officials have warned Cuba not to attempt a huge boat lift. Yet they remain concerned that Castro could try to relieve tensions on the island by allowing
thousands to flee.

Some observers see last week's ejection of Cuban diplomats as a move to relieve pressure from conservatives on the administration to take tough measures against
Castro.

The dramatic gestures provided "enough fireworks now that [the administration] can avoid any measures that are going to cause a lot of controversy, and, instead,
leave the focus on what Castro's done," said one congressional aide.