More influence by Miami exiles predicted

 BY CAROL ROSENBERG

 Cuba watchers are predicting fewer cultural exchanges, a hardening of U.S. policy
 and increased direct support for dissidents on the island as part of a Bush
 administration foreign policy toward Fidel Castro's government.

 ``Nobody's saying that if we have a Republican administration in Washington, the
 Marines are going to be storming the ports of Cuba tomorrow,'' said Republican
 Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, buoyant about the possibility of a toughening in
 U.S.-Cuba policy.

 But she did forecast tougher talk, tougher restrictions on American business
 travel and fewer contacts between Americans and nondissident Cubans to turn
 back the tide of what she called ``a trickling, weakening of the U.S. embargo
 day-by-day during the Clinton administration.''

 Both supporters and opponents predict that Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, the South
 Florida Republican, will have some influence on the administration Cuba policy.

 In April, he met for more than an hour in his congressional office with
 Condoleezza Rice, Bush's nominee to become national security advisor.

 According to Republican sources, he later submitted a memo to the Bush
 campaign that articulated the three Cuba pillars of a future Bush administration:
 no ties without free elections, freedom for political prisoners and the free
 expression of ideas.

 Clinton policy had tentatively promoted an increased opening toward Cuba --
 mostly in the form of people-to-people contacts -- as a strategy for toppling Castro
 communism.

 Now some Cuba experts are predicting a reexamination of those portions of the
 Helms-Burton Law that presidents can waive, while others anticipate a greater
 belligerence because of the influence of the Miami exile community within the
 GOP.

 A first Helms-Burton test could come as soon as April when the White House
 must decide whether to lift a moratorium on Title III of the legislation, which allows
 exiles to sue in U.S. courts any business now operating in Cuba on
 state-confiscated property.

 President Clinton signed the bill after the February 1996 ambush by Cuban MiGs
 of two Brothers to the Rescue planes that killed four South Floridians.

 The Democratic administration, however, always considered the provisions of Title
 III a potential trap that would create problems with U.S. trade partners because
 they are in direct conflict with the free-trade provisions of the World Trade
 Organization, the body that governs international commerce.

 As a result, Clinton repeatedly waived the lawsuit portion and avoided full
 implementation of another section, Title IV, that penalizes foreign firms that do
 business with Cuba by denying U.S. visas to their executives.

 Cuban American National Foundation Executive Vice President Dennis Hays said
 he expects a Bush administration to highlight the presence of dissident groups,
 independent journalists and political prisoners on the island.

 ``I do think there is going to be movement to try to foster democracy more, and
 change,'' said Hays, who ran the State Department's Cuba desk in the mid '90s.

 An example: The U.S. spent $10 million promoting democracy in Serbia this year,
 he said, compared to $2 million to U.S.-based groups that forge ties with
 dissidents and Castro opponents on the island.

 Watch that sum rise, Hays predicts, and watch for an interpretation of
 Helms-Burton that allows for direct assistance to lawyers, independent journalists
 and other anti-regime resources.

 ``There is a chance for a new administration to make a mark,'' he said.
 Expressing an opinion held by many Republicans, he said that policies of the
 Reagan and Bush administrations helped bring about the collapse of the Soviet
 Union. ``Here is its outpost,'' he added, ``and a chance for it to go away too.''

 Former U.S. Interests Section chief in Havana, Wayne Smith, put it this way: ``I
 would imagine that U.S. policy toward Cuba across-the-board will become more
 severe.''

 An advocate of strategic engagement to create change in the Castro system, he
 characterized coming Cuba policy as a payoff to Cuban Americans in South
 Florida for Bush's November election. ``I think momentum toward engagement and
 easing the embargo is gone for a time, despite the majority wishes,'' Smith said,
 citing farm interests and big businesses as well as some religious groups that
 seek more active engagement with Castro's Cuba.

 John Kavulich of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council likewise predicted
 an early administration slowdown in the Treasury Department's issuing of licenses
 and permits for travel and business deals in Cuba, while the State Department
 and Treasury await signals from the White House.

 ``Bureaucrats want to cover themselves,'' he said, adding that there was a similar
 licensing backlog between the last Bush and Clinton administrations.