DEMOCRATS TO CAPITALIZE ON SENTIMENT

Rafael Lorente Washington Bureau

Thanks to tough measures announced in May, President Bush has mollified conservative Cuban-American critics who until recently were complaining the White House had not done enough to end Fidel Castro's island rule.

But the tough new regulations restricting travel and gift parcels to the island that take effect Wednesday also have galvanized more moderate Cuban-Americans in South Florida who say they are being isolated from family members in Cuba. Democrats are trying to take advantage of that split in hopes of cutting into Bush's support in a community that arguably delivered the White House in Florida's contested 2000 election.

"There's a tremendous rejection from the Cuban-American community," said Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez, a Cuban-American Democrat active in this year's election. "The president was ill advised in my opinion. They were probably telling him that he was weak on Cuba. What he's done is alienate many Cuban-Americans."

Martinez, who supports the presumptive Democratic nominee, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, said Bush's new regulations have lit a fire under Cuban-Americans who oppose tightening restrictions on travel to Cuba. They are mobilizing and registering to vote, he said.

The regulations also have sparked opposition on Capitol Hill, where a majority of members oppose many of the sanctions on Cuba. Last week, Rep. Jim Davis, D-Tampa, introduced legislation that would undo the new regulations, saying they are contrary to American values because they keep families from helping each other.

"I'm going to do anything I can to block these rules and convince the administration they've made a mistake," Davis said.

But the president's supporters see the new regulations another way.

"What this has done is to rekindle the strength of the support of the president that's always been there," said Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, R-Miami. "The passion will be there."

A poll this year by the South Florida Sun-Sentinel showed that more recent Cuban-American immigrants, those who left Cuba since 1985, are much less likely to support toughening restrictions and much more likely to have family they want to visit on the island. But while they tend to oppose Bush, they are not as established in the community as older Cuban-American immigrants, and therefore less likely to vote. The older immigrants overwhelmingly support Bush and are more likely to vote.

In 2000, Bush won Florida by a disputed 537 votes. Cuban-Americans are estimated to have given Bush more than 80 percent of their approximately 450,000 votes. And even without the emotional boost of the Elian Gonzalez case, which angered many Cuban-Americans and mobilized them to vote against then-Vice President Al Gore, Bush's allies think the numbers are on their side again.

"Those in the community who place the cause of freedom and democracy in Cuba foremost in their minds are very supportive of the President's initiatives," said State Rep. David Rivera, R-Miami. Rivera was one of 13 Republican members of the Florida House of Representatives who signed a letter last year telling the White House the administration needed to be tougher on Castro.

Rivera said that while no policy is enough as long as Castro is in power, he does not expect to make any statements or write any letters criticizing the president this year.

"Our foremost goal right now is to make sure the president gets re-elected," he said.

Rivera said the new regulations should help that cause.

"The people that vote are the historic exiles, the hardcore political exiles," Rivera said. "And the more of them we get out to vote the more support we'll have for President Bush."

But not everybody is happy. In private, some conservatives in the exile community wonder whether the administration will be as tough next year if Bush wins re-election. Some also wonder whether Bush overplayed his hand with the most recent regulations and riled up the opposition in South Florida, which is what Democrats argue.

Martinez, the Kerry supporter, did not know what U.S. policy toward Cuba would look like in a Kerry administration, except to say that it would include more people-to-people contacts, which former President Clinton favored. Martinez did say he would recommend undoing the new regulations promulgated by Bush.

And he said Kerry has told him he would set up a commission of Cuban-Americans to "look for other ways to break this impasse."

Kerry spokesman Mark Kornblau said the senator would encourage principled travel, including family visits and trips that fostered educational and cultural exchanges. He also re-iterated that the senator opposes lifting the embargo or recognizing the Castro government.

He said that because Kerry will work to improve relations with American allies he will be better equipped to generate support for civil society on the island and international pressure on Cuba to release political prisoners.

"John Kerry is committed to seeing the end of the Castro regime," Kornblau said.

Rafael Lorente can be reached at rlorente@sun-sentinel.com or 202-824-8225 in Washington.

REGULATIONS

The new Cuba regulations taking effect Wednesday will alter almost everything from how often Cuban-Americans can travel to the island to the goods they can send their relatives:

Travel

Cuban-Americans will be allowed to visit Cuba only once every three years instead of once every 12 months. The rule is retroactive to the last visit taken.

Travelers also are allowed to visit only spouses, children, parents, siblings, grandparents or grandchildren, as well as any spouse, widow or widower of someone in one of those categories.

Visits will be limited to no longer than 14 days and, unlike before, require a license.

Recent arrivals from the island must wait three years to return to visit family.

Travelers no longer will be allowed to return with $100 worth of merchandise purchased on the island. The only purchases allowed are informational materials.

The amount of money travelers visiting Cuba may spend is reduced by more than two-thirds to $50 per day, plus an additional $50 per trip to pay for transportation-related costs on the island. These amounts do not include the cost of airfare from the United States to Cuba.

Only 44 pounds of baggage per traveler will be allowed.

Fully hosted travel, where a third-country national pays for all expenses for a group, or the Cuban government waived the expenses, no longer will be allowed.

Educational licenses will be restricted to undergraduate and graduate institutions and will last for one year, not two. Students must be enrolled in a degree program at the institution. And certain educational activities must be no shorter than 10 weeks.

Remittances

The quarterly $300 in cash that may be sent to the island may now be sent to only immediate family members as defined in the travel restrictions above.

Those traveling to Cuba may carry only $300 in cash for remittances for one family instead of the previous $3,000 limit for 10 families.

Packages

Gift parcels to Cuba may include only food, medicine, vitamins, medical supplies and equipment, receive-only radios and batteries. They may not include seeds, clothing, personal hygiene items such as soap or fishing equipment and supplies.

Parcels containing items other than food may be sent only once per month per household. And the packages may be sent only to the same immediate family members defined in the travel and remittance rules above.