CNN
Friday, April 30, 2004

Polls: Ex-dictator's son set for win in Panama vote

PANAMA CITY, Panama (Reuters) -- The son of a former dictator is expected to win an easy victory in Panama's presidential election on Sunday, bolstered by a market-friendly platform and the legacy of his late father.

Martin Torrijos, a pro-U.S. centrist, holds a commanding lead of nearly 20 percentage points over his closest rival in opinion polls leading up to the first election since the U.S. government handed over control of the Panama Canal in 1999.

Torrijos, 40, has appealed frequently to the memory of his father during the campaign. Omar Torrijos won wide acclaim at home for persuading Washington in the late 1970s to cede the canal to tiny Panama.

Posters are plastered all over Panama of a grinning Omar Torrijos wearing military fatigues and chomping on a cigar, with a modern-day image of Martin in the background.

"He is my hero," Torrijos said of his father in a recent magazine interview. "I feel he is still with me everywhere."

Torrijos' main rival is former president Guillermo Endara, who during his 1989-94 term rebuilt an economy shattered by a U.S. invasion and ensuing riots.

The pair have a broadly similar platforms but most voters seem to feel the 67-year-old's time has past.

"Martin is young and he comes from a family that knows how to rule well," said Florencia Varga, a flight attendant, at a Torrijos campaign rally this week.

The largest cheer from the flag-waving crowd came when Torrijos mentioned his father, whose rule ended in 1981 when he died in a mysterious plane crash.

Observers expected a clean election in a democracy that has matured significantly since U.S. troops forced former strongman Manuel Noriega from power in December 1989.

Noriega is now in jail in Florida serving a 30-year sentence on drug-trafficking charges.

Favorable to business
The next president will likely preside over a multibillion-dollar expansion of the Panama Canal, details of which are expected to be finalized later this year.

Negotiations are also underway for a bilateral free-trade agreement with the United States.

A Torrijos victory "should mean a considerable improvement in the outlook for policy in Panama, and a generally more pro-business stance by the government," Wall Street brokerage Morgan Stanley said in a recent report.

Panama's economy is seen growing at a brisk rate of about 6 percent in 2004 thanks mostly to growing U.S. demand for its exports, plus a boom in construction fueled by tax breaks that Torrijos plans on extending beyond this year.

The most recent major poll, published on April 22 by Cid/Gallup, showed Torrijos with 45 percent of the vote. Endara had 27 percent, while two other candidates had 10 percent or less.

"Unless the polls are totally wrong, it's difficult to think the margin in this election will be very small," said Moises Benamor, head of a mission from the Organization of American States, which is monitoring the vote.

In a twist common in Panamanian politics, where a small group of families controls most of the power, Torrijos is set to replace current President Mireya Moscoso -- whose late husband was overthrown by Torrijos' father in a coup in 1968.

Copyright 2004 Reuters.