BY ANDRES OPPENHEIMER

 MEXICO CITY -- Less than five months before Mexico's presidential election, polls
 show that the race is the closest in recent history, and that the opposition is
 within reach of toppling the world's longest-ruling political party.

 Despite a rejuvenated image and a national economic recovery that should help it
 in the July 2 election, the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), in power
 since 1929, is suffering from pent-up resentment against its history of corruption,
 vote rigging and authoritarian rule.

 Government-backed candidate Francisco Labastida is leading in the polls with 40
 percent of the intended vote, followed by former Guanajuato state Gov. Vicente
 Fox of the center-right National Action Party (PAN) with 32 percent, and former
 Mexico City Mayor Cuauhtemoc Cardenas with 10 percent, according to a recent
 survey by the daily Reforma.

 ``The difference is minuscule,'' Fox told The Herald. ``Never before has an
 opposition candidate come this close of the PRI candidate at this point in the
 race.''

 At this stage of the 1994 presidential elections, the PRI candidate was leading in
 the polls with a massive 60 percent of the intended vote, while his nearest rival
 was far behind with 20 percent.

 Unlike in previous elections, there is little ideological warfare in the current
 campaign. Both of the leading candidates are eager to upgrade Mexico's
 free-trade agreement with the United States.

 In separate interviews, both Labastida and Fox said they want Mexico to be an
 enthusiastic player in the global economy, and will seek to change the country's
 sovereignty-obsessed foreign policy to join the United States and Europe in efforts
 to defend democracy and human rights.

 Instead, the race between the top contenders is centering on character issues.

 Labastida, 57, a former interior minister who is often compared with former
 President Miguel de la Madrid for his combination of solid command of the issues
 and shortage of charisma, is attacking Fox as unreliable. His campaign strategy,
 said by aides to be designed by U.S. campaign strategist James Carville, centers
 on painting Fox as somebody who talks before he thinks and flip-flops on the
 issues.

 Among other things, Fox is criticized for having praised Cuban President Fidel
 Castro during a 1999 trip to Cuba, and then attacking Castro during a trip to
 Washington a few months later.

 ``He flip-flops constantly, he lacks consistency, he suffers from verbal
 incontinence,'' Labastida said.

 Fox, a charismatic speaker whose trademarks are boots and blue jeans, is
 attacking Labastida as a candidate of ``more of the same,'' who is surrounded by
 corrupt members of the elite that has ruled Mexico for seven decades.

 ``The idea that there can be saviors within the PRI who can change things around
 is false,'' Fox said. ``Labastida has been part of the system for 36 years. To
 become the PRI candidate, he had to make deals with the party hard-liners, with
 the technocrats, with everybody.''

 Government officials say they are confident Labastida will win, because the
 economy is expected to grow by a healthy 4.5 percent this year, President
 Ernesto Zedillo enjoys record popularity, Labastida conveys a feeling of security
 and -- most important -- the PRI maintains one of the world's best-oiled political
 machines.

 While recent electoral changes will make it much more difficult for the PRI to rig
 the vote, the party still has considerable influence over television and radio
 networks.

 Fox complains that while evening news television programs show Labastida
 looking great and speaking in front of huge crowds, the cameras often look for
 scenes where the opposition candidate is uncombed, or look for empty seats in
 the audience. Still, few dispute that television is more even-handed than six years
 ago.

 The Zedillo government is also believed to be putting more money into social
 programs in areas where the PRI risks losing most votes, thus tacitly helping the
 pro-government Labastida camp.

 Most political analysts say the outcome of the race will depend on the televised
 debates -- the candidates have agreed on at least two -- and on the fate of
 Cardenas' campaign.

 If left-of-center Cardenas fails to move up from his current 10 percent in the polls,
 the expectation is that a sizable part of his voters will shift over to the
 right-of-center Fox. This is because Cardenas' supporters are, above all, anti-PRI,
 and may thus vote for the opposition candidate with the best chances of toppling
 the ruling party.

                     Copyright 2000 Miami Herald