MEXICO CITY, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Mexico's conservative National Action
party (PAN) has a unique chance of winning the presidency in 2000 but it
may prove a hollow victory unless a cycle of economic meltdowns is ended
once and for all.
Felipe Calderon, 36-year-old president of the PAN, said in an interview
his
party was determined to play its part in preventing a fresh economic crisis
when President Ernesto Zedillo hands over power in two years.
"We are interested in avoiding a crisis because, among other things, we
seriously aspire to govern in 2000 and we don't want to be left with the
ashes of what was the Mexican economy," said Calderon, a former member
of parliament.
For more than two decades, the handover of presidential office at six-year
intervals has been accompanied by traumatic economic dislocation.
Zedillo's first weeks in office were marred by a collapse in the value
of the
peso, plunging the economy into one of the deepest recessions in living
memory. Many analysts believe his administration has never fully regained
its
stride.
With economic storm clouds gathering again on the horizon, Calderon
believes the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party's (PRI) chances of
retaining its 69-year-old grip on power are definitely on the wane.
"The deterioration in the economic situation ... the political responsibility
for
the management of the economy will have a significant impact on the PRI
in
2000," he said.
The presidential election is expected to be a three-horse race between
candidates from the PRI, the PAN and the left-wing Democratic Revolution
Party (PRD). Political analysts believe any of the main parties could win.
Calderon says he believes the odds are stacking up against a victory in
2000
by the PRD, whose charismatic leader Cuauhtemoc Cardenas faces an uphill
struggle as Mexico City's mayor in trying to turn the tide against a crime
wave.
"The bad experience which the Cardenas administration is having in Mexico
City will harm the PRD," he said
"The year 2000 will be the political moment for the PAN, if the PAN does
things well ... If it manages to put itself at the centre of national consensus,
if
it knows how to be a leading party in building the Mexico of the future,"
he
added.
The party will not chose its presidential candidate until late next year
but
Vicente Fox, governor of the state of Guanajuato, has made no secret of
his
intention to be the PAN's contender.
In a pitch for the moral high ground, Calderon has appealed to party political
rivals, including the PRI and the PRD, to forge a "good government" pact
to
ensure a smooth handover in two years time.
He said economic turbulence, which has struck with unfailing regularity
with
every leadership succession, has been brought on because presidents tend
to
concentrate on securing victory for the PRI's candidate in their last year
in
office.
"In Mexico each six-year crisis is evidently linked to the political cycle,"
he
said. "In the last year of a presidency with the elections in sight, the
economic decisions of the government ... are subordinated to the electoral
cycle."
"What we propose is a good government agreement which establishes
economic and political rules which minimise the probability or the risk
of a
six-year crisis," he added.
Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.