By JAMES F. SMITH, Times Staff Writer
 

                      MEXICO CITY--A team of electoral experts Thursday
                      declared that it is technically feasible to grant as many as 7
                      million Mexicans living in the United States the right to vote in
                      this country's next presidential election, a step likely to have broad
                      repercussions on both sides of the border.
                            The experts' report, commissioned by the Federal Electoral
                      Institute, lays the foundation for an emotion-charged debate in
                      Mexico's Congress on whether absentee voting by Mexicans abroad
                      is not only possible but politically wise.
                            Armed with the experts' findings, the electoral institute will report
                      to Congress next week on how to move forward.
                            Proponents see an absenteeballot system as an inevitable
                      extension of Mexico's evolving democracy, enfranchising millions of
                      economic exiles who until now have been denied a vote in their home
                      country as well as their adopted land. But critics warn that given the
                      huge numbers, an absentee vote could have unpredictable
                      consequences in Mexico--and could even cause a backlash in the
                      U.S. by raising issues of divided loyalties.
                            What's beyond doubt is that adding a voting bloc of millions of
                      Mexicans residing--both legally and illegally--in the United States
                      could dramatically affect the outcome of the 2000 election. That vote
                      is already regarded as a milestone for Mexico; opposition parties
                      believe that they have a chance to end seven decades of unbroken
                      rule by the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI.
                            "Before, it didn't matter much whether we voted or not, but
                      [now] the people themselves are reforming Mexico, and that has
                      made it matter," said Alejandro Garza, a 51-year-old Sacramento
                      resident who moved to the U.S. when he was 3. Garza joined other
                      green card-holding Mexican citizens who came to Mexico City this
                      week to lobby for the right to vote abroad.
                            "I can't vote either in the U.S. or in Mexico," he said. "I can't go
                      to my consulate and vote like Argentines or Nicaraguans or South
                      Africans do"--a reference to the absentee voting rights enjoyed by
                      citizens of 43 other countries, including U.S. citizens living abroad.
                      "And yet we Mexicans in the U.S. send $5 billion every year back
                      home to our families. We want a say."
                            Straw votes and polls suggest that a large majority of expatriate
                      Mexicans would support opposition parties rather than the PRI. Given
                      that 35 million Mexicans voted in the 1994 presidential election, the
                      absentee vote could be 15% of the 2000 tally--although some doubt
                      that there would be such high interest.
                            Emilio Zebadua, an electoral institute member and coordinator of
                      the initiative, said: "Nobody has proven that it's an anti-PRI vote, but,
                      in any case, you can't exclude constitutionally entitled and valid voters
                      because of how you think they might vote."
                            Congress may decide the matter as soon as mid-December, but
                      the contentious issue could take a few months to resolve. By then it
                      could be too late to change electoral laws, organize ballot boxes, and
                      take care of voters' lists and other logistics in time for the 2000
                      election, delaying the absentee vote until 2006.
                            The mechanics are indeed daunting. The expert team estimated
                      in a preliminary report that about 8.6 million Mexican citizens will be
                      living in the United States at the time of the vote in June 2000. About
                      7.1 million Mexicans would be 18 or older and thus old enough to
                      vote, the panel said.
                            California is by far the most important magnet for migrants,
                      attracting 50% of all northbound settlers, and Los Angeles draws the
                      greatest number of Mexicans of all U.S. cities.
                            The proposal would not extend the absentee vote to Mexicans
                      who have become U.S. citizens.
                            The experts put forward six possible methods, ranging from
                      voting by mail or even by phone to setting up ballot boxes at Mexican
                      consulates. The proposals would cost between $76 million and $350
                      million. Some methods would be more restrictive, allowing only those
                      with official voting credentials issued in Mexico to vote; other
                      proposals would make it easier for more people to vote.
                            Under the most restrictive plan, about 1 million people could be
                      eligible. The broadest plan would potentially embrace all 7 million.
                            The prospect of hundreds of thousands of Mexicans lining up at
                      the Mexican Consulate in Los Angeles and other cities on election
                      day prompted political scientist Sergio Aguayo to comment recently:
                      "One of the strongest worries [in the U.S.] is that this could feed the
                      ‘specter of the reconquest.' In some frontier states and in many
                      conservative circles in the United States, there has been a concern
                      for decades about the unceasing Mexican migration . . . and that at
                      this rate Mexico could reconquer territories lost 150 years ago."
                            But Luis Pelayo, a Mexican-born immigrants rights activist living
                      in Chicago, said few Americans are bothered about foreign residents
                      exercising rights in their home countries.
                            Earlier this year, Mexico changed its rules to allow Mexican-born
                      U.S. citizens to regain their Mexican nationality--but not their
                      citizenship rights, including the right to vote. Fewer than 10,000
                      Mexican Americans have reclaimed their Mexican nationality so far.
                            Prominent political scientist Luis Rubio also cautioned against a
                      precipitous embrace of the absentee ballot. Many Mexicans living in
                      the United States, he said, "are totally disconnected from this
                      country."
                            "The majority of the voters in the United States--the majority of
                      whom no longer have close personal links with Mexico--would not
                      have to pay the price of the consequences of their decision," Rubio
                      added.
                            That view rings hollow for Caetano Gonzalez, born in Michoacan
                      but a U.S. resident since 1974.
                            "Like all Mexicans from the countryside, we sought a better
                      horizon for our families. But I never forgot my origin," said Gonzalez,
                      now a landscaper in Costa Mesa. "I had opportunities to become a
                      U.S. citizen, but I preferred to wait for the chance to vote back
                      home.
                            "We want our political voice so we can contribute and make
                      Mexico stronger, and make the economy stronger so young people
                      won't have to leave like we did."

                      Copyright Los Angeles Times