By Madeline Baró Diaz
Miami Bureau

If thousands of Cubans again took to the seas as they did in the summer of 1994, they probably would not come straight to the United States.

Today, the U.S. Coast Guard repatriates any Cubans caught at sea who immigration authorities determine do not have a credible fear of persecution if returned to Cuba. Those who show they have a credible fear are sent to the U.S. Naval Base at Guantanamo Bay, where they undergo further interviews. Most pass those interviews and then wait for another country to accept them.

The United States will not take them in, however. That would send the wrong signal, said a State Department official who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

"It would be incoherent for us to then bring these people to the United States because, again, the message here is safe, orderly, legal migration," he said.

The policy also serves as a deterrent to mass migration, the official said.

"I think it sends a signal to the Cuban people that the United States and Cuba, despite their many disagreements on many things, agree this is the only type of migration that should take place," he said.

Another reason Cubans would receive a chilly reception from the United States is that after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, waves of immigrants arriving by sea could be viewed as security threats.

"If it happened today, given the war on terrorism, the United States might be likely to interpret mass migration as an act of war," said Damian Fernandez, director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University. "I think it is a very dangerous proposition for both governments."

But if a mass migration were to occur, the U.S. Coast Guard, the Border Patrol and other agencies under the Department of Homeland Security would follow a plan similar to one they used earlier this year during unrest in Haiti, said Coast Guard spokesman Lt. Tony Russell. In that operation, which repatriated almost 900 Haitians, the agencies came together under a single command and control structure. "We're very well prepared to handle migration surges right now," Russell said.

For now, U.S. authorities don't seem concerned about any immediate threat of a mass migration from Cuba. Russell said the Coast Guard's biggest migration challenge in recent months has been intercepting the stream of Dominicans fleeing toward Puerto Rico.

James Cason, chief of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana, announced last month that the United States had reached its annual quota of 20,000 immigration visas for Cubans. The visa lottery system was put in place during migration accords between the United States and Cuba as an alternative for people who are desperate enough to leave Cuba by raft.

"I don't think there will be a mass migration," Cason said. "There's no reason for one. The accords offer the opportunity for people that want to go."

Havana Bureau Chief Vanessa Bauzá contributed to this report.

Madeline Baró Diaz can be reached at mbaro@sun-sentinel.com or 305-810-5007.

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