The Washington Post
Thursday, November 9, 2006

Democrats' win spurs hope of immigration revamp

By Tim Gaynor
Reuters

PHOENIX (Reuters) - Sweeping wins for Democrats in U.S. midterm elections have rekindled hopes among Latino activists of achieving a comprehensive overhaul of immigration policy that was blocked by Republicans in Congress.

Democrats swept Republicans from power in the U.S. House of Representatives in Tuesday's elections, and appeared to have taken control of the Senate, in a clear repudiation of President George W. Bush's handling of Iraq.

Pro-immigrant think tanks said the shift in power created an opening to achieve a comprehensive overhaul of immigration policy, broadly supported by Bush and the Senate in recent months, although blocked by the Republican-dominated House.

"I would say our chances in the next Congress are better than they have ever been," said Frank Sharry, the executive director of the Washington-based National Immigration Forum.

"The Senate, even if it stays in Republican hands, has demonstrated their support for it. The public is still frustrated and upset about the issue, and wants its leaders to lead," he added in a telephone interview.

Public opinion is divided in the United States over what to do with an estimated 10 million to 12 million illegal immigrants living and working on the margins of U.S. society.

Bush and the Senate favored measures that increased security on the porous Mexican border and created a guest-worker program, while the House voted to build 700 miles

of wall along stretches of the southwest border.

Immigrant-rights advocates in Phoenix said they believe Democratic gains had likely tipped the balance on Capitol Hill in favor of pushing through comprehensive legislation on immigration.

"It's early days, but there are real grounds for optimism," said Elias Bermudez, the founder and executive director of Phoenix-based advocacy group Immigrants Without Borders.

SECURITY UPPERMOST

Arizona voters overwhelmingly backed four anti-illegal immigrant ballot measures at the polls on Tuesday, calling for tighter border security and making English the state's official language.

Analysts caution that many of the newly elected Democrats in Congress also campaigned on get-tough enforcement measures, which could temper their support for a comprehensive immigration overhaul when they reach Capitol Hill in January.

"A lot of the new Democratic intake got elected in marginal Republican districts where support for enforcement is strong," said Steven Camarota of the conservative Center for Immigration Studies think tank in Washington.

"It seems unlikely that the first thing they will do (in Washington) is vote for amnesty for 10 million illegal immigrants," he added.

However, a comprehensive overhaul is supported by the expected new House speaker, California Democratic Rep. Nancy Pelosi, who analysts say will likely continue to focus lawmakers on the issue next year.

They say immigration may also gain renewed attention from Bush, who faces a tough ride from Congress on his handling of the Iraq war, and will be looking to his legacy after he leaves office in 2009.

"If President Bush is smart and is interested in getting something accomplished in his final two years as president, this is a natural issue for him," said Michael Shifter, vice president for policy at the Inter-American Dialogue.

Shifter said attention to immigration may also help Bush repair relations with Latin American neighbors, which have become strained in recent months over backing for the border wall, and by the election of former Marxist revolutionary Daniel Ortega as Nicaragua's president earlier this week.

Bush will get an opportunity to patch U.S.-Mexico relations when he meets with President-elect Felipe Calderon in Washington on Thursday. Calderon last month criticized the U.S. decision to build a border fence and said it would complicate his White House visit.

"A more humane immigration measure might begin to repair the damage in U.S.-Latin American relations," Shifter said.

(With additional reporting by Adriana Garcia in Washington)

© 2006 Reuters