Despite bipartisan opposition backed by religious and business leaders, Arizonans look set to carry an anti-immigrant ballot initiative

By MARGOT ROOSEVELT

Proposition 200, an Arizona ballot initiative aimed at illegal immigrants, would seem to have little going for it. Virtually the entire political, business and religious establishment of the state — including Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano, Republican Senator John McCain and the state's three Catholic bishops — is lined up against it. The Arizona Chamber of Commerce is also campaigning for its defeat. But such is the backlash against the flood of undocumented Mexicans pouring over the border that the "Protect Arizona Now" initiative seems almost a sure bet to pass.

The proposition requires voters to show a valid ID at the polls and makes it a crime, punishable by up to four months in jail and a $750 fine, for state and local officials to fail to report any suspected aliens seeking welfare, medical care or other public benefits. Proponents, backed by the Federation for American Immigration Reform, a Washington-based lobby, launched a TV ad campaign this week, claiming that illegal immigrants cost Arizona taxpayers $1.3 billion a year. Prop 200, the ad says, "sends a message that Arizona is sick and tired of illegal immigration."

Opponents argue that the measure will do nothing to stop illegal immigration, that there has never been a problem with alien-voter fraud and that checking for illegals applying for benefits is too cumbersome and costly. Still, a recent poll showed that Arizona voters favor the measure 63% to 23%. Prop 200, says Democratic state chairman Jim Peterson, is "an assault on basic human rights that plays to the fears of Arizonans."

The measure could affect the presidential race in a state where Bush and Kerry are running neck and neck. Some opponents hope it will galvanize Hispanic voters, which could boost Kerry's chances. Yet the Hispanic vote is hardly monolithic. Many of Arizona's Latino families — one-quarter of the state's population — have lived there for generations and are unhappy with undocumented workers who drive down wages. Democratic canvassers in Latino neighborhoods have been told to stress jobs, education and health care — and not to discuss the initiative unless asked.