ELVIA DíAZ and ROBBIE SHERWOOD
The Arizona Republic

A new statewide poll shows that Arizonans overwhelmingly back an initiative aimed at preventing illegal immigrants from getting public benefits.
Seventy-four percent of the 387 registered voters interviewed last week said they would support Protect Arizona Now. Sixteen percent opposed it, and 10 percent were undecided.

Of those polled, 17 percent were registered voters in Pima County, but pollster Bruce Merrill told the Tucson Citizen that the subsample is too small to break out statistics for the county.

He suggested the measure would have 5 or 6 percent less support in Pima County because the county has a higher percentage of Democratic voters than the state.

The initiative, likely to make the Nov. 2 ballot, would require proof of citizenship for anyone registering to vote and identification for those who vote in person. When registering to vote, Arizonans currently must fill out forms affirming that they are U.S. citizens and Arizona residents.

The measure also would deny public benefits to illegal immigrants. The initiative does not specify which benefits would be affected, but opponents say they could include health care provided by the state, unemployment benefits and municipal garbage collection.

Debate leading up to the election is expected to focus largely on which benefits might be denied to illegal immigrants and how much money could be saved.

The state Department of Economic Security provides welfare services in Pima County, but agency spokeswoman Liz Barker told the Citizen that because the measure is not yet even on the ballot she can't comment on hypothetical situations.

One Tucsonan who helped gather signatures for the measure told the Citizen it's imperative.

"We just got unbelievable numbers of illegal aliens, and no doubt a lot of them are getting these state perks," said Wes Bramhall, president of Tucson-based Arizonans for Immigration Control. "And also to make sure that they don't vote, that's the big thing."

But Kat Rodriguez, a coordinating organizer for the Tucson-based human rights advocacy group Derechos Humanos, told the Citizen that the proposition is an expensive burden on taxpayers targeting a community that is constantly criminalized.

"It is a mean-spirited initiative. It is an expensive nonsolution," Rodriguez said. "You're forcing state workers to become agents by threatening them."

A key to Protect Arizona Now, which would appear on ballots as Proposition 200, would be its effect on government employees. The measure would make it a crime for state and local government workers to fail to alert immigration authorities of suspected illegal immigrants who ask for public benefits. Workers currently face no such criminal sanctions.

Regardless of the questions facing the initiative, Merrill said support for Protect Arizona Now cuts across all demographic groups.

"The group that was most for it was people who identify themselves as very conservative Republicans," said Merrill, an Arizona State University professor who directed the poll. "But a majority of every demographic group we looked at, including men, women, education level, political party, they all support it."

Phoenix's KAET-TV and the ASU Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication conducted the poll July 15-18. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Opponents of the measure questioned the results of the poll, saying the number of Hispanics interviewed is statistically insignificant and that the question skewed the results. The question indicated, in part, that Protect Arizona Now would deny state and local social and welfare services to illegal immigrants, but the term "illegal immigrants" is not in the ballot language.

"He (Merrill) was asking the wrong question," said Alfredo Gutierrez, co-chair of the Statue of Liberty Coalition, formed to defeat Protect Arizona Now. He said a broader question about the potential effects of the bill on Arizonans would be more appropriate.

Merrill said rephrasing the question would likely change the results by a few percentage points, but the overall support would not dramatically fluctuate.

Merrill agreed with Gutierrez that a larger number of Hispanic voters would have to be polled to better reflect their views on the proposed initiative. Among the 387 voters interviewed for the poll, roughly 50 were Hispanic, and their support for the measure was almost evenly split, he said.

Ultimately, Merrill said the measure likely would split the Latino vote, much as what happened in California with the anti-immigration campaign of Proposition 187.

Gov. Janet Napolitano said the recent poll can be misleading.

"People hear the words 'Protect Arizona Now.' They hear how it's being described, and they say, 'Yeah, I'm for that,' " Napolitano said. "I think it's an expression of 'do something.' The problem is that this proposition doesn't solve much."

Organizers have filed 190,887 signatures with the secretary of state on behalf of Protect Arizona Now, and they are confident they have the needed 122,612 valid signatures. This week, state election officials threw out roughly 6,000 signatures during a preliminary review.

Officials will decide in early August whether there are enough signatures to send the issue to voters in November.

Tucson Citizen Staff Writer Luke Turf contributed to this article.

PROTECT ARIZONA NOW:
 

All Arizonans would have to show proof of citizenship when registering to vote. Among acceptable IDs are Arizona drivers licenses issued after 1996, copy of birth certificate, U.S. passport, Bureau of Indian Affairs card or tribal treaty card number.

Everyone voting at the polling place would have to show identification. Any form that shows the person's name, address and photo would be acceptable, as would two different forms of IDs that have the name and address of the voter.

State and local governments would have to verify the immigration status of anyone applying for public benefits.

State and government workers would have to alert federal immigration officials in writing of suspected illegal immigrants seeking public benefits. Those who fail to do so would face a class 2 misdemeanor punishable by up to four months in jail and a $750 fine.

The measure would give residents the right to sue the state or local government to remedy violation of federal immigration law.