By Gary Marx Tribune foreign correspondent

A decade ago, Alexis Gonzalez watched scores of desperate Cubans take off in flimsy rafts from this coastal town for new lives in the United States.

Today, it is Gonzalez who is setting his sights on America. In the last year, the 39-year-old electrician says, he twice tried and failed to flee Cuba in a makeshift vessel of metal, plastic foam and inner tubes.

"Three things can happen to you when you take to the ocean," said Gonzalez, a father of three who lives in a concrete-block home about five miles east of Havana. "You can die. You can make it there, or you can get caught and returned.

"The way we live, it's worth the risk. I work so hard just to eat," he said.

Ten years after more than 30,000 Cubans took to the sea in what became known as the "rafters crisis," Gonzalez and many other of his compatriots still see the 90-mile voyage as the only path for reaching the U.S.

But experts say the number of Cubans attempting the voyage has dropped sharply from its peak a decade ago, and they also say it's less likely there could be a repeat of the 1994 crisis that allowed many Cubans to settle in the U.S. but left countless dead in the Straits of Florida.

One reason is Cuba's economy. While still weak, it has rebounded from the 1990s, after the Soviet Union's collapse ended huge subsidies and led to widespread food shortages and other problems. Many Cubans fled the island as a result.

The crisis also sparked the landmark U.S.-Cuba migratory accords in the mid-1990s that widened the path to legal immigration by allowing 20,000 Cubans annually to migrate to the United States.

At the same time, the United States has made it more difficult for Cubans to enter the country illegally by changing a policy that for decades granted permanent U.S. residency to almost any Cuban immigrant.

In response to the rafters crisis, U.S. officials adopted the "wet-foot, dry-foot" policy that allows Cubans who reach American shores to stay, while those picked up at sea are sent back.

Cuba and the United States also have intensified security along their coasts, though American officials acknowledge the difficulty of detecting small vessels in the 25,000 square miles of open water between the nations.

Enforcement problems are exacerbated by the fact that many Cubans no longer flee the island only in flimsy rafts. Now, there are speedboats operated by professional smugglers who charge $5,000 to $8,000 per person.

Smuggling on rise

"Since the mid-1990s, we have seen an increase in smuggling activities," said Lt. Tony Russell, a spokesman for the Coast Guard in Miami. "They overload the boats, use no life jackets and run at high speeds. It's a very dangerous proposition."

Russell said 85 Cuban immigrants are known to have died at sea since 2001, though the actual number is likely much higher.

More than 950 Cubans have been intercepted by the Coast Guard this year, about the same number as this time last year but far below 1994's 37,000.

"I want to go to the United States, but legally," said Tania Espinosa, a 35-year-old Cojimar resident whose brother was smuggled into Florida on a speedboat several years ago. "I am afraid of the sea."

The risk of crossing by boat has led some Cubans to seek other routes into the U.S., such as the 21-year-old woman who late last month airmailed herself from the Bahamas to Miami in a wooden crate.

Yet, while the migratory accords have reduced the flow of illegal migrants, they have not ended the acrimony between the U.S. and Cuba over immigration.

In a July speech, Cuban President Fidel Castro (news - web sites) charged that U.S. immigration policy "has caused the loss of countless Cuban lives by rewarding and encouraging illegal immigration." Castro also said the U.S. wants to provoke a new migratory crisis as a pretext for invading the island.

James Cason, the top U.S. diplomat in Havana, on Friday called such claims "patently ridiculous" and said America is committed to "safe, legal and orderly migration."

Mark Falcoff, a Latin America scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank, said it is in neither country's interest to spark a new immigration crisis.

Falcoff said such an event could abrogate the migratory accords, which help Castro maintain political stability by allowing "a constant outflow of people who are unhappy."

U.S. policymakers also don't want a wave of Cubans arriving unannounced on U.S. shores because it would put enormous strain on housing, health-care and other services.

"Even the Cuban-American community doesn't favor opening the doors," Falcoff said.

That's what happened in the summer of 1994, when rising discontent sparked rioting, a series of boat hijackings and a mass exodus of Cubans after Castro opened the ports to anyone who wanted to leave.

Shortest distance to Florida

Thousands of Cubans swarmed the rocky coast in Cojimar, a fishing town of 20,000 that has become a popular launch spot because it is the closest point to the Florida Keys.

One of the people who fled in a makeshift raft was Gustavo O'Farrill, a 53-year-old fisherman from Cojimar. But O'Farrill got scared and turned around after 24 hours at sea because he saw so many Cubans dead in the water. He regrets the decision.

"It was a mistake to come back," said O'Farrill, explaining that he hasn't tried again because he must care for his aged mother. "Many of those who left are living well."

A quick trip around Cojimar shows many homes that have been renovated with cash sent back by balseros, as the 1994 rafters are known, and other Cubans living in the U.S. The homes are a reminder of the potential prosperity across the straits.

Gonzalez, the electrician, said there have been two failed attempts on the beach behind his home in recent months, including one raft that was powered by a Mercedes-Benz automobile engine and broke apart shortly after being launched.

Speedboats also arrive on Cojimar's shores to pick up people trying to flee the island.

Alfredo Sanchez, a 38-year-old construction worker, said he hitched a ride on a speedboat in 2001 with his infant daughter, but they were caught by the Coast Guard and sent back to Cojimar.

But Sanchez said his 34-year-old brother made it to the U.S. in a speedboat and now works in a Las Vegas casino.

"He's doing fine," Sanchez said. "He doesn't want to return here."

An employee of Cuba's telephone company who earns a base salary of about $10 a month, Gonzalez said he applied in 1998 to emigrate legally to the U.S. but has not received a response.

Tired of waiting, Gonzalez and eight others rode a homemade raft in August 2003 close enough to see the glow of lights on the Florida coast. But they abandoned the effort and sought refuge on a passing oil tanker after their engine failed.

Gonzalez said the Coast Guard repatriated the group.

2nd attempt thwarted

In March, Gonzalez and his younger brother, Armando, built a second raft. This time, Cuban police discovered their plan and detained them 20 minutes before they were going to launch the craft.

The brothers are waiting impatiently to try again.

"I don't support this [political] system, but I am not against it either," said Armando Gonzalez, 37. "What I want is a better life."