BY FRANCES ROBLES

 TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras -- A Stanford-educated businessman whose son was murdered in a botched kidnapping is expected to win today's presidential elections in Honduras, a country where more than 2,000 people are murdered each year.

 Ahead in the race is the National Party's Ricardo Maduro, 54, a former Central Bank president with the dashing looks of a TV anchorman. Maduro is running on a platform of "zero tolerance'' for crime, saying the criminal justice system needs to be revamped and better funded.

 As if to emphasize his point, a congressional candidate from Maduro's own party was shot to death Friday night in a crime that had no apparent political motivations.

 Maduro's opponent is Rafael Pineda Ponce, a 71-year-old former school teacher who now leads congress for the ruling Liberal Party. Polls show Maduro leading by 10 points or more in a race where few ideological sparks are being struck.

 ``It looks like Maduro is going to win,'' said Mauricio Díaz, an analyst with an umbrella group of nonprofit organizations. ``But not by as much as he thinks.''

 The winner will have a daunting task: The United Nations estimates that 65 percent of Honduras' six million people live in poverty. A full quarter are illiterate, and only 15 percent went to high school.

 Many people live in substandard housing and are still reeling from Hurricane Mitch, a 1998 storm that dumped seven months of rain in seven days and tore the nation apart in the process. Honduras' foreign debt is $5.5 billion, and it spends nearly a quarter of its budget paying off the interest.

 ``Make no mistake,'' candidate Maduro said in a recent speech, ``it's a tough job we face.''

 Maduro's anti-crime platform rings with voters: 2,155 people were murdered here last year, and 2,250 were killed violently by Oct. 31 this year. Voters are impressed by Maduro's sincerity on the topic. His son Ricardo, a 24-year-old manager of the family's supermarkets, was killed in an attempted kidnapping in 1997.

 But the campaign was far from an easy ride for Maduro: He first had to prove he was even Honduran. Born in Panama, he moved to Honduras when he was 6 and did not become a citizen until 30 years later. He is considered Honduran because his maternal grandmother was born here in 1888.

 Acting on a legal challenge filed by the opposing party, the courts suspended his campaign last year until they determined whether he was eligible to run.

 Pineda Ponce, who calls himself ``an authentic Honduran,'' at 71 has faced some criticism over his age. Some analysts believe voters simply may be ready for a change after eight years of Liberal Party governments. But supporters are hoping he can ride on the approval ratings of popular outgoing president Carlos Flores, who recently endorsed Pineda Ponce after avoiding the topic all year.

                                    © 2001