CNN
January 8, 2002

Colombian peace talks on brink of total collapse

                 BOGOTA, Colombia (AP) -- Three years ago, President Andres Pastrana
                 opened peace talks with Colombia's main rebel group, hoping to end Latin
                 America's longest-running insurgency. Today, the talks have produced little
                 but disappointment.

                 The peace process is now on the brink of total collapse. Many Colombians feel it is
                 heading nowhere, and some want Washington to do more to help end this country's
                 civil war, now entering its 38th year.

                 Fully 95 percent of Colombians surveyed believe the next round of peace talks -- if
                 they occur at all -- will produce nothing, according to an opinion poll released
                 Monday by the Caracol broadcasting network. Only 5 percent think the talks will
                 have any positive results.

                 Government peace envoy Camilo Gomez spent Monday in a rebel safe haven,
                 hoping to coax the insurgents back to the negotiating table. The rebels abandoned
                 formal talks last October, complaining about increased army patrols around the
                 Switzerland-sized safe haven.

                 Pastrana created the safe haven three years ago to lure rebels to negotiate, but the
                 talks began on an unpromising note on January 7, 1999, when supreme rebel
                 commander Manuel Marulanda snubbed the opening ceremony. An embarrassed
                 Pastrana was left sitting next to an empty chair.

                 Support for Marulanda's Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, meanwhile, is
                 at an all-time low.

                 Reflecting a widely held opinion, a teacher in Bogota called them "nothing but a but
                 a bunch of gangsters." The teacher didn't want his name used out of fear of
                 reprisals from the rebels, who finance themselves by carrying out kidnappings for
                 ransom and by p roducing cocaine for export.

                 Rejection of the FARC, as the rebel group is known, was underscored in recent
                 weeks when unarmed residents of a half-dozen villages tried to peacefully force the
                 rebels to leave their towns. But there has been no repeat performance since a law
                 student was shot dead as he led villagers trying to ward off a rebel attack on New
                 Year's Eve.

                 The FARC has also lost support in Europe amid anger about rebel kidnappings of
                 Europeans, and changing attitudes worldwide following the September 11 terrorist
                 attacks in New York and Washington.

                 Last month, the European Union stopped issuing visas to Colombian rebels. A
                 European ambassador in Bogota recently wondered privately why the Colombian
                 army doesn't wage a full-scale assault against the FARC's estimated 16,000
                 combatants.

                 But the army's 130,000 soldiers are hard-pressed to maintain control over a
                 mountainous country the size of France, Spain and Portugal combined. Despite
                 $1.3 billion in mostly military aid from Washington, the war shows no signs of
                 slowing.

                 The aid, aimed at destroying cocaine- and heroin-producing crops, does not extend
                 to counterinsurgency warfare.

                 But a retired Colombian businessman, who also didn't want his name used for
                 security reasons, said Colombia's stability is important to the United States, pointing
                 out that Washington is closer to Bogota than it is to Los Angeles.

                 Ana Eiras, an analyst for the conservative Heritage Foundation in Washington,
                 echoed that sentiment.

                 "The illegal drug industry and guerrilla groups have created a lawless environment
                 that threatens both the Andean region and the United States," Eiras wrote in an
                 opinion piece Thursday for The Miami Herald.

                 "The Bush administration must act to stop the terrorist threat posed by the
                 Colombian guerrillas," Eiras said.

                 However, Washington is preoccupied with the war against those behind the
                 September 11 attacks. Plus, there are concerns that the Colombian military hasn't
                 completely severed its links with the outlawed paramilitary group, which has been
                 massacring suspected rebel supporters.

                 Gomez, the peace envoy, insists that a negotiated solution is the only way out of
                 Colombia's war, which neither side seems capable of winning militarily. But in
                 comments to reporters, he cast doubt that the rebels feel the same way.

                 "The government and the Colombian people are ready and available to advance the
                 negotiations," Gomez told journalists in the safe haven. "But naturally, you need two
                 to negotiate."

                  Copyright 2002 The Associated Press.