El Salvador's next president will be the ruling party's candidate or a former journalist who could increase ties to Venezuela's Hugo Chávez.

By BLAKE SCHMIDT
Special to The Miami Herald

SAN SALVADOR -- In a raucous presidential election that for the first time in two decades could oust the right-wing ruling party, critics here say a win by the candidate of the left-wing former guerrilla movement threatens the Central American nation's economy and its relationship with the United States.

If voters opt for the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front [FMLN] in Sunday's election, El Salvador also will expand Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez's sphere of regional influence, say loyalists to the ruling Nationalist Republican Alliance, known by the Spanish acronym ARENA.

''The FMLN has ties to the FARC [Colombia guerrilla movement], Venezuela and Iran. They're not friends with the United States,'' said ARENA candidate Rodrigo Avila, who's trailing FMLN's Mauricio Funes in most polls.

`DIRTY CAMPAIGN'

Fans of the former TV journalist say Funes represents a fresh face in politics while Funes argues that ARENA loyalists are stuck in the past and don't realize the FMLN has ''evolved'' from the Marxist guerrilla movement that spun into a political party 17 years ago.

Funes has said ARENA's ''dirty campaign'' is a "sign of desperation.''

He recently told a gathering of supporters: ''When the beast is down and wounded, it puts all its effort into delivering that last bite.'' In a country of seven million that remains polarized along the lines of the 1980-1992 civil war, Funes is trying to distance himself from old-school leftists by associating himself with U.S. President Barack Obama in campaign advertisements, while ARENA ads align him with Chávez, Cuba's Fidel Castro and Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega.

''It would be very arrogant of me to compare myself with a statesman of President Obama's stature,'' Funes told The Miami Herald. ``But people make that comparison because my candidacy represents hope.''

Despite Funes' slogan promising ''safe change,'' critics say his party's hard-liners will continue to polarize the country, scare investors, and dismantle reforms put in place by the ruling ARENA with U.S. backing.

ARENA leaders say the FMLN is trying to provoke violence by alleging the ruling party is planning to rig the election.

Experts say the election may be a harbinger for how Latin American countries will deal with frustrations over the global economic crisis.

''The election is not only fundamental for the future of democracy in El Salvador. It will also be viewed as a sign of the political fallout that might be expected elsewhere,'' said Michael Shifter of Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank.

Since the civil war, during which the Reagan administration backed ARENA, the ruling party has struggled to stomp out a festering gang problem.

Though Avila took a bite out of this violent nation's problem with his ''iron fist'' and ''super iron fist'' crackdowns during two stints as the National Police director, the country's murder rate is still among the world's highest.

But crime is taking a back seat to the faltering economy. According to a February survey by El Salvador's Universidad Centroamericana (UCA), 75 percent of those polled said the economy is the country's primary problem.

Under ARENA, the economy opened to trade and investment, the colón was replaced with the U.S. dollar and key industries were privatized. El Salvador saw the highest long-term export growth in Latin America, boasts one of the region's most competitive economies, and the poverty rate has dropped by nearly half since 1991 to about 35 percent.

But the growth has concentrated about half the wealth into the richest 20 percent of Salvadorans, according to UCA economist Melissa Salgado. A confluence of laissez-faire policies, insecurity and wealth disparities have shaped a landscape in the capital where shopping malls and fast-food joints under heavy private guard are tucked between sprawling slums.

'YOU HAVE TO EARN IT'

An English-speaking graduate of North Carolina State University, Avila's biggest challenge may be convincing Salvadorans that keeping ARENA in power for more than two decades doesn't threaten El Salvador's fledgling democracy with single party monopoly in the manner of Mexico's once-hegemonic PRI party.

''Everyone deserves a chance. But you have to earn it. That's what I'm trying to do here,'' he said, as a swarm of photo-snapping supporters surrounded him in front of a Kentucky Fried Chicken.

In a barrage of fearsome TV ads, the right has been warning Salvadorans that FMLN members have links to Colombia's FARC guerrillas, and will undo close U.S. relations and cozy up to Chávez and Cuba's Castro brothers.

Chávez is already courting FMLN. He pumped 30 million gallons of discounted oil since 2007 to 20 FMLN mayors, who say the support is strengthening democracy by empowering the poor.

''The more revolution, the more democracy,'' said Carlos Ruíz, an ex-guerrilla mayor and vice president of ALBA Petroleos de El Salvador, a joint oil venture with Venezuela.

The right, meanwhile, has used photos of Ruíz snuggled in Chávez's embrace to illustrate the country's sovereignty in demise.

Washington analyst Juan Carlos Hidalgo, of the Cato Institute, said taking El Salvador down the path of Chávez's socialist model will leave the country's economic achievements in peril. FMLN leaders have been open about their intentions to dismantle ARENA's economic reforms.

'CRITICAL'

''As long as the FMLN doesn't leave behind its radical left agenda, every election in El Salvador will be critical for that country's democracy,'' Hidalgo said.

Chávez's oil diplomacy in the region will be put to the test as his pockets are hit by the plunge in oil prices.

Funes said he will tolerate Chávez's program as long as it does not interfere with U.S. relations. The U.S. is El Salvador's biggest trade partner and supplier of remittances, which represent 18 percent of GDP and are showing signs of slowed growth.

''My response to confront the crisis is national unity and building policies to take the country beyond polarization and uncertainty,'' he said.