By Anthony Faiola
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, March 24, 1999; Page A17
QUITO, Ecuador—Enrique Guerron, a 36-year-old technician for the
state-run oil company, cracked open a warm bottle of beer and clicked
mugs with his union buddies. They raucously toasted their greatest victory
yet over the free-market zealots who "want to sell out our country and
let
us all starve."
As part of a compromise to end nationwide union strikes that last week
paralyzed this country of 12 million, the government backed down from
proposals to prepare state-run companies for sale to private investors
and
to raise gasoline prices sharply.
Though President Jamil Mahuad has promised to revisit the privatization
measures later this year, his deal with liberal parties and union leaders
is
viewed by analysts here as a blow to Ecuador's efforts to liberalize its
economy. The government's retreat also serves as a warning for Latin
America: While the region has largely embraced the free-market model
advocated by Washington and the International Monetary Fund, Ecuador's
example shows that such changes cannot be taken for granted.
"We don't want any part of your [economic] system," said Guerron, who
earns $400 a month. "Before we let [Mahuad] sell our lives to foreigners,
we'll cause total chaos here -- we'll close this country down."
While Chile, Argentina and Peru have moved aggressively to liberalize their
economies, other Latin American nations -- including Ecuador, Venezuela,
Colombia and Paraguay -- have been far more cautious. Their caution
reflects, in part, the growing strength of grass-roots movements opposed
to government efforts to reduce the state's role in the economy.
Opposition spokesmen here and elsewhere in the region contend that
privatization and other free-market reforms have disproportionately
benefited foreign companies and the ruling classes at a price of massive
layoffs for ordinary citizens. The result, in Ecuador and elsewhere, is
increasing and occasionally violent resistance.
For the Clinton administration, the success of these reforms is important
--
not only because American firms are heavily invested in the region but
also
because of the perceived link between free markets and democracy.
Indeed, Washington's concern about the situation in Ecuador -- especially
after the collapse of the Brazilian currency, the real, in January -- became
apparent last week, when President Clinton called on Mahuad to "continue
to work for needed economic reforms and maintain Ecuador's unwavering
commitment to democracy."
Some analysts argue, however, that even if these nations wanted to move
faster, right now they couldn't: The continuing economic crisis in Brazil,
Latin America's largest nation, has turned many foreign companies away
from a region once considered ripe for investment.
"In the short and medium term, I think prospects for more privatizations
are very bad in Ecuador, and also in some other Latin American countries
such as Venezuela and Colombia," said Gustavo Arteta, a prominent
economist in Quito. "It's not just the opposition to privatization. People
are
not investing down here anymore. When you've got strong opposition and
[an] economic crisis . . . what foreign investor is going to say, 'Okay,
I
want to buy a company there.'?"
There is growing resistance to reforms even in Argentina, where the
government has privatized most state industries. While free-market reforms
there have created a new class of cellular phone-toting business people
on
the streets of Buenos Aires, they also have fueled unemployment because
the private sector has been unable to absorb former state workers. That,
in
turn, has given birth to groups such as the "Combative Class," which is
made up of former Argentine state workers and stages high-profile raids
on grocery stores to protest reforms.
This month, Ecuador became the center of attention as it erupted in violent
strikes that threatened to topple Mahuad after his government hiked
gasoline prices and proposed a number of emergency reforms, including
preparations to slash the state work force.
Ecuador's crisis has been fueled in part by low prices for oil, one of
this
nation's largest revenue sources, and El Nino-related floods, which caused
$2.8 billion in crop damage. But some of the country's problems are
self-inflicted.
For one thing, economists and political analysts say, weak and corrupt
political leadership has hindered the implementation of reforms. Of
Ecuador's previous two presidents, one was jailed last week on corruption
charges and the other is in exile after having allegedly dipped into state
coffers.
The few privatizations that have occurred here have not yielded happy
results. Economists cite the example of the national airline, Ecuatoriana,
which has lost prestige, passengers and routes since being sold off in
the
early 1990s.
Ecuador's wealthy business elite has also fueled cynicism about reforms
by
calling for privatizations while demanding government intervention to prop
up failed banks -- owned mostly by Ecuador's powerful families. In a
move to prevent bank failures, the government has frozen -- in whole or
part -- most private bank accounts.
"How can the government tell a state worker who often can't even save
enough money to open a bank account that he should accept privatization
for the good of the nation, when at the same time the government is busy
bailing out the rich and powerful bank owners?" said Alberto Acosta, a
Quito-based political analyst.
Many analysts here say the idea of improving competition and efficiency
by
privatizing key state industries, especially electric utilities and the
telephone
system, remains broadly popular. But even pro-reform politicians such as
Mahuad, a Harvard-educated lawyer and former Quito mayor, have
wavered in their commitment.
"There is no way we are going to let the same [widespread privatizations]
that happened in Chile and Argentina happen here," said Enrique Barros,
46, a quality-control supervisor for Ecuador's state-owned oil company,
who traveled eight hours by bus from a rural northern province to protest
government reforms.
"If they privatize and I get fired, what is a 46-year-old oil technician
going
to do for a living?" he asked. "Find another job? Doing what?"
© Copyright 1999 The Washington Post Company