BY JANE BUSSEY
Launching a controversial experiment that will be closely watched
across Latin
America, Ecuador's President Gustavo Noboa signed a bill into
law Thursday
making the U.S. dollar his nation's currency.
The move triggered immediate support from the powerful International
Monetary
Fund and other international agencies, which announced $2 billion
in loans, a
financial lifeline to help the South American country foot the
bill for switching to
dollars and for rebuilding its shattered economy.
Under the dollarization plan, the country's currency, the sucre,
will be phased out
and replaced by dollars over a six-month period, starting April
1. The central bank
will no longer print sucres, although it will mint sucre coins.
Loans, deposits,
government bonds and all other financial instruments will be
converted to dollars,
a massive undertaking.
The move to the dollar has already cost Jamil Mahuad the presidency
and has the
support of less than one Ecuadorean in four, according to local
opinion polls.
Labor unions and indigenous groups announced a series of strikes
and protests,
including a nationwide shutdown scheduled for March 21. Protests
in January
triggered a short-lived military coup that forced Mahuad from
office and left the
presidency in the hands of Noboa.
Ecuador's poor have seen their living standard slip drastically
because of inflation
and devaluation and expect a further deterioration under this
dollarization
package, which also includes a series of austerity measures and
plans for
privatization of state-run companies.
Despite the opposition, Ecuadorean officials see dollarization
as the only way to
tame runaway inflation, reverse the economy's downward spiral
and restore
confidence to the nation. Inflation could hit 90 percent this
year and the economy
shrank by 7.5 percent last year, the worst economic performance
in the
hemisphere.
``Dollarization is like trying to lose weight by wiring your jaw
shut,'' conceded
Ramiro Crespo, president of Analytica Securities, a Quito broker-dealer.
``It is a
desperate measure. But there is a greater sense of tranquillity
now because
before, under Mahuad, with the constant devaluations, there was
too much
uncertainty.''
Although the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury have repeatedly
warned
countries that they dollarize at their own risk, a series of
American officials,
including Peter Romero, the acting assistant secretary of state
for Western
Hemispheric Affairs, have traveled to Quito in recent weeks,
visits that
Ecuadoreans interpreted as a show of support from Washington.
The Treasury Department had no comment on the dollarization law,
but issued a
statement saying it ``welcomed'' the IMF announcement that it
would be lending
Ecuador $300 million over the next three years, in part to implement
the
dollarization progrma. The World Bank will lend Ecuador $425
million, the
Inter-American Development Bank will extend $620 million in credits
and $700
million will come from the Andean Development Corporation.
Not everyone is mourning the passing of the sucre, whose value
has plunged in
about 18 months from 6,000 to $1 to the current rate of 25,000
to $1.
Dollarization has generated a group of outspoken supporters in
capitals around
the hemisphere and the appeal of the stable dollar in troubled
Latin American
countries is not disputed.
Supporters of dollarization insist that it stops reckless spending
and economic
mismanagement because countries can no longer print money to
finance deficit
spending. Argentina, Mexico and El Salvador have also talked
of dollarization, and
the experience in Ecuador is being closely watched.
But the measure remains highly controversial because it makes
it impossible for
countries to control their own domestic economic policies, such
as setting
interest rates -- one of the most powerful tools to speed up
or slow down
economies. In the future, Ecuador will have to follow interest
rates set by the U.S.
Federal Reserve, even if Ecuador's economy is moving in the opposite
direction of
the U.S. economy.
``This is a bad idea whose time has come,'' said Walter Molano,
director of
research at BCP Securities in Greenwich, Conn.
The news of the huge lending by international agencies underscored
that bailing
out Ecuador's ailing economy will be an expensive proposition.
The loan
announcement comes one day after a panel recommended that the
IMF halt its
huge loans to bail out countries. This loan will be Ecuador's
ninth IMF rescue
package in 17 years.
``Is this the final answer?'' asked Martin Schubert, president
of European
Inter-American Finance Corp. in Miami. ``I doubt it.''
Copyright 2000 Miami Herald