BY JANE BUSSEY
QUITO, Ecuador -- As Ecuador becomes the economic guinea pig of
Latin
America with its radical dollarization proposal, many are asking
how authorities
can impose austerity on a country already buckling under years
of belt-tightening.
Ecuador's economy shrank by 7 percent last year, while inflation
rose 60 percent,
the highest in the hemisphere. The rapid devaluation of the Ecuadorean
sucre --
20 percent alone since the start of this year -- and the proposal
to dollarize the
country has placed the worsening poverty in Ecuador in a dramatic
light. While
inflation and devaluation have pushed the cost of living for
basic foodstuffs for a
family to $200 a month, the monthly minimum wage ranges from
$45 to $50.
President Jamil Mahuad's proposal to dollarize the economy --
substitute the
weak sucre with the stable dollar -- has garnered support among
Ecuador's
business groups and middle class, anxious for a return to economic
stability.
Representatives of the International Monetary Fund, the Inter-American
Development Bank and private financial experts assembled in Ecuador
on Sunday
to try to help the government draw up a detailed proposal on
how to dollarize.
Economists have talked about dollarization in the region for more
than a year, but
Ecuador was never the first choice for the experiment because
it does not have
plentiful dollar reserves.
OPPOSITION STIRRED
Mahuad's dollar proposal has sparked opposition from the Confederation
of
Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador, the Conaie, and other social
movements,
which liken the move to putting a thin person on a diet.
``I have told my children that now we will eat once a day and
it won't be much,''
Lastenia Mora, a resident of the coastal city of Guayaquil, told
Ecuador's
TeleAmazonas.
Three months ago, 40-year-old Luis Ortega was credit and billing
manager at a
Quito importing firm, where he had worked for 18 years. But since
the company
went out of business and Ortega lost his job, he drives a taxi
cab.
``Super difficult,'' Ortega said of the economic situation.
``When my wife goes to the market, before she could buy a chicken,
now she can
buy half a chicken. She used to buy four pounds of meat, now
she buys only
three,'' Ortega said.
To make matters worse, one of the government's proposals is that
Ecuadoreans,
whose bank deposits were frozen in March 1999 in an attempt to
ward off bank
failures, would have their funds returned in seven to 10 years.
This measure would
hit low-income Ecuadoreans and particularly retirees the hardest
since they were
the most likely to keep their money in domestic banks instead
of banks in Miami
or the Caribbean.
RETIREES' STORIES
The media is full of stories of retirees who note that they could
be dead before
their own savings are returned a decade from now.
Most of the private sector agrees that something must be done
about the
worsening economic situation of the average Ecuadorean.
``It is inconceivable that a family can live on $50 a month,''
said Patricio Baus, the
manager of BankWatchRatings, S.A., Ecuador. ``Before the country
can enter a
dollarization [plan], there must be a wage increase.''
Indigenous groups and students have staged scattered protests
and road blocks
in isolated regions for more than a week.
But Conaie's threat to shut down Quito with a massive indigenous
march has yet
to materialize, even though new protests are slated for today.
But, in a dial-in poll carried out by the Quito newspaper Hoy,
79 percent of those
who called the newspaper said they supported Conaie's protests.
The term ``dollarize'' has captured most of the public attention.
But dollarization is just the catchall word for an economic restructuring,
known as
``shock'' treatment in Latin America, which Mahuad wants to implement.
ONE STEP FURTHER
The program, backed by Washington and the IMF, fixes the currency's
parity
against the dollar as an anchor to hold down inflation, privatizes
state-run
companies and eventually raises prices for gasoline, telephones,
electricity and
other utilities closer to international levels. Mahuad's proposal
goes one step
further, calling for the elimination of the sucre in all but
minor transactions.
Whether the plan can be implemented is still in question, although
many
economists think Ecuador has little choice but to go ahead.
But even analysts who are not enthusiastic about IMF programs
agree that
Ecuador needs to re-order its economy.
Political analyst Simon Pachano said that economic and political
uncertainty and
the lack of economic direction have been especially damaging
to the country's
anti-poverty programs and the poor.
Social spending on areas such as health and education has fallen
from 12
percent of the country's gross national product in 1980 to 7
percent in 1990 to just
3.3 percent last year.
``If there has been no economic policy, there has been even less
of a social
policy and there also was no serious war on poverty,'' Pachano
said.
Copyright 2000 Miami Herald