Washington, March 26, 1958 - 4:34 p.m.

526. Department has carefully studied question arms shipments to Cuba in light Embtels 543 and 544[1] and continues feel decision Deptel 4923 necessary in view recent GOC suspension constitutional it guarantees, announced strengthening armed forces and indications of strong measures to come such as another mass movement Oriente population (Embtel 5364). As result, elections even though postponed appear impossible realize unless GOC takes effective measures soon convince people they will be fair.

Department has considered possibility its action could have adverse psychological effect GOC and could unintentionally contribute to or accelerate eventual Batista downfall. On other hand, shipment US combat arms at this time would probably invite increased resentment against US and associate it with Batista strong arm methods, especially following so closely on heels of following developments:

1) Government publicly desisted from peace efforts.

2) Government suspended guarantees again.

3) Batista expressed confidence Government will win elections with his candidate and insists they will be held despite suspension guarantees but has made no real effort satisfy public opinion on their

fairness and effectiveness as possible means achieve fair and accept

able solution.

4) Batista announced would increase size army and informed you he would again undertake mass population Oriente, and otherwise acted in manner to discourage those who supported or could be brought to support peaceful settlement by constructive negotiations.

Moreover, shipment of combat arms at this time might jeopardize our entire Latin American MAP program, already under fire by press and in Congress, and might invite rebel retaliation against US citizens and property.

Department agrees Embassy should continue efforts with its usual discretion to attain fair elections though possibility now seems remote. Mere statements by GOC that elections will be fair have proved ineffective, although public opinion in US and elsewhere was being favorably influenced by US and Cuban press comment on Batista's restoration guarantees in January until again disillusioned by GOC's latest decision abandon peaceful means an resort to increased repressive measures.

Department believes postponement elections plus steps (A, B and amnesty para 6 Embtel 536) that Batista told you confidentially he had in mind, if he carries them out, should help toward constructive solution of impasse which if continues or worsens threatens cause his

downfall. Also, concurs that your suggestions (A) and (B) to him

(Embtel 536), if he adopts them, should go far in right direction. Other

constructive steps which Batista might take following in order those he

has proposed and those you suggested could be:

(1) Investigation Milanes Dantin case and appropriate prosecution Captain Sosa and others implicated (Embtel 536) and public announcement he will not tolerate such acts by his officials.

(2) Restoration of guarantees and, if possible, an amnesty,

(3) Gradual replacement officials responsible for brutality.

Embassy will recall that January 17 memorandum to Secretary[5] recommended approval requests purchase arms as means to encourage acceptable elections in Cuba, but decision on actual shipments would be made on basis conditions in Cuba at time shipments ready. If satisfactory headway made toward realization points enumerated

above, resultant improved situation there would put Department in position to reconsider suspension on arms shipments. [6]

Dulles

NOTES:

1.Source: Department of State, Central Files, 737.00/3-2658. Secret; Priority. Drafted by Leonhardy and Wieland and approved by Snow who signed for Dunes.

2. Documents 37 & 38

3. Document 36

4. Document 34

5. Document 5.

6. In telegram 606 from Havana, March 28, Smith reported that he met with Guell and informed him of the developments mentioned in the second paragraph of telegram 526 as well as the three constructive steps proposed in the telegram. Guell requested that the Ambassador submit these points in writing and that he repeat the following statement to the Department: "GOC is fighting against armed aggression, armed rebellion, and armed insurrection under active support of Communists. GCIC is attempting to preserve law and order, which includes protection American life and property. We are gravely concerned over change of policy by US." (Department of State, Central Files, 737.00/3-2858)