The Miami Herald
Tue, Feb. 17, 2004
 
Chávez's rivals need one thing: a viable leader

The opposition forces trying to unseat Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez have yet to come up with a viable candidate to run against him in an election, threatening their recall drive.

BY FRANCES ROBLES

CARACAS - As a campaign to unseat Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez through a recall referendum heats up, the wide-ranging opposition is under attack for lacking the one crucial element for winning any new election: a candidate.

''The opposition is pathetic,'' said Miguel Diaz, a Washington, D.C., analyst.

An alliance of right- and left-wing political parties and former oil workers is feverishly at work demanding the chance for Venezuelans to vote Chávez out halfway through his term. But in their maneuvering around the complicated legal obstacles on the road to a recall, experts say Chávez foes have lost sight of their goal, forgetting that if they want to oust the president, they need somebody to take his place.

Whether by design or default, the lack of a clear front-runner to beat Chávez underscores the challenges faced by a diverse coalition that lacks not just cohesion and an alternative to the enemy they seek to depose, but a political platform.

A few politicians have surfaced as possibilities to replace Chávez, but experts say all lack the media savvy and populist zeal needed to go up against a fiery orator with a devoted following among the poor.

The result: the opposition could force an election -- only to lose it.

''They are making all the right noises, but you have terribly unattractive political leaders with an at-best incoherent platform,'' said Diaz, South America project director for the Center for Strategic International Studies. "They are losing out on the campaign, because they are not campaigning.''

STRATEGIC MOVE

Venezuelan opposition forces say the leftist former army officer rose to the presidential palace precisely by being messianic, and they refuse to fall into the same trap. What some call incompetence they consider a strategic decision.

''For now,'' said congressman Julio Borges, ``it's Chávez against himself.''

An alliance of business, labor, media and oil sectors banded together to overthrow Chávez two years ago, when he started passing laws taking on the middle class. Afraid Chávez was controlling too much of the government's powers and getting too friendly with Cuban President Fidel Castro, unlikely partnerships formed to drive him out.

A military uprising in April 2002 nearly worked, but the president came back to power two days later. A two-month strike last year failed miserably, giving Chávez renewed control of the armed forces and the state oil company.

With unorthodox options exhausted, the opposition is now trying a legal route: a recall.

The government-controlled elections board has yet to announce if the opposition collected enough signatures to force the recall. From there, the opposition would still need to win the referendum, and then face off for an election. The law is unclear whether Chávez would be allowed to run again, but everyone is acting on the assumption that he will.

CHAVEZ AT WORK

While the opposition organizes rallies and runs media ads demanding its signature drive be recognized, Chávez is on the campaign trail. The government has launched an unprecedented social spending spree on projects to teach people to read, get them to graduate from high school and receive free medical care from Cuban doctors.

''Chávez is pouring money on the streets,'' pollster Luis Vicente León said. 'Meanwhile, the opposition has three million people in its pocket -- but it needs one million more. They need not just the message, ``Out with Chávez! Chávez is a bad guy!' They need leaders.

``It's the only way to win.''

Polls show Chávez enjoys about 40 percent support, León said. The other 60 percent is deeply divided, meaning the opposition must put forward a single candidate if it wants to win.

Miranda state Gov. Enrique Mendoza is a favorite, but he has suggested that he is not interested in being an interim president. Other leading figures who have been dubbed ''presidentiables'' are former Carabobo Gov. Henrique Salas Rmer, who lost to Chávez in 1998, and Borges, a lawyer-turned-congressman. Many experts viewed labor union leader Manuel Cova's recent trip to Washington, D.C., as a campaign stop.

Salas Rmer has publicly proposed a primary to decide which of them should run.

''Does the U.S. Democratic Party have a leader? No opposition has a leader until election time,'' he said in a recent interview. ``Everybody is looking for a champion. We need a David, not a Goliath.''

Salas Rmer is one of five members of what was dubbed the G-5, the Group of Five, considered the nation's top opposition leaders. But even Juan Fernández, another G-5 member, has single-digit support in the polls, León said.

''They want an opposition that takes the reins,'' said Fernández, who does not plan to run. ``That's not leadership. That's a confrontation.''

Asked about a recent trip to Washington, opposition activist Timoteo Zambrano said that even U.S. officials were concerned about the lack of contenders. The Chávez administration was only too eager to agree.

''There are no leaders in the opposition,'' Vice President José Vicente Rangel said. ``Precisely they, Timoteo Zambrano and Manuel Cova, who went to Washington with a shameful attitude, as lackeys asking for help . . . are the best demonstration of that.''