CNN
February 12, 2002

Venezuelans consider coup unlikely

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) --Despite continued street protests supporting two
dissident military officers, many demonstrators doubt a military uprising against
President Hugo Chavez is imminent -- or that most Venezuelans want one.

On Monday, hundreds of pot-banging protesters accompanied Air Force Col. Pedro
Soto and National Guard Capt. Pedro Flores as they reported to their commanding
officers to answer for their dissent. The two men were allowed to go home while
authorities decide whether to charge them.

Soto and Flores stunned the nation last week by demanding that Chavez resign and
new elections be held. Their dissent prompted thousands to protest both for and
against Chavez.

The protests led the United States and the Organization of American States to
express concern for Venezuelan democracy.

Yet polls show almost 80 percent of Venezuelans would reject a military coup
against Chavez, even though his popularity has plunged to below 30 percent because
of frustration with a stagnant economy and rising crime.

"I voted for that man, and I'm disappointed. But I'd rather he finish his term or be
voted out in a referendum," said Virgilio Suarez, a civil servant. "Some people are
hoping for a coup and I don't think they realize what they are saying."

The dissident officers claimed most soldiers and officers share their view.

But National Guard Chief Gen. Belisario Landis on Monday again insisted that the
100,000-strong military backs the government. After five days, no other military
officers have come forward to support Soto and Flores.

The government dismisses Soto as a frustrated officer who holds a grudge because
he was not promoted to general.

"This event doesn't mean that there is danger of a military rebellion against Chavez,"
said Luis Vicente Leon, an analyst with local polling firm Datanalisis. "It's just
another ingredient in a tense situation. It only shows that the opposition is seeking
any excuse to take to the streets."

Opposition leaders, though, were cautious in supporting the two officers. They insist
on an institutional way out for Chavez -- either by voting him out in the 2006
presidential elections or by organizing a referendum to force him to resign. The
constitution allows for such a referendum in two years.

"Venezuelan society is not seeking a military leader, just a leader," Greater Caracas
Mayor Alfredo Pena told El Universal newspaper. Soto "expressed views we share
... but he also said he did not want to govern."

Polls taken in December suggest Chavez -- who led a failed 1992 coup attempt
against then-President Carlos Andres Perez -- still could win an election against a
splintered opposition. Many Venezuelans reject the prospect of having the country
run by a disorganized and discredited opposition should Chavez be ousted abruptly.

"I sincerely doubt any political leader wants to substitute Chavez right now," said
Maria Sol Perez, a sociologist with the Central University of Venezuela. There are no
leaders "that can guarantee stability should Chavez leave."

Copyright 2002 The Associated Press.