By TIM JOHNSON
Herald Staff Writer
CARACAS -- Since his triumph in early December, President-elect Hugo Chavez
has been on a whirlwind campaign. He has visited 11 countries, dropped
by the
White House, put together a Cabinet team and met with key international
lenders.
Now, it's time to get busy.
Chavez takes office today, and the former military coup leader faces a
daunting
array of challenges. Poor Venezuelans who swept Chavez to power want to
see
prosperity quickly, yet oil prices keep dropping, leaving state coffers
empty.
Moreover, if Chavez does not act prudently, his nation risks falling into
the world
financial maelstrom that is battering neighboring Brazil.
``What Chavez has to do is make decisions very, very fast,'' said Erik
Eckvall, a
political analyst and longtime resident of Venezuela.
If the transition period is any indication, the 44-year-old Chavez is able
to move
rapidly, far more quickly than Rafael Caldera, the 83-year-old president
he will
replace.
His vigor is without dispute. On Friday, a beaming Chavez threw the first
pitch in a
game between Venezuela's two leading baseball teams.
What remains deeply in question is where Chavez will take his presidency.
Wildly
popular with the poor, Chavez has turned political ambiguity into an art
form,
issuing contradictory statements to different audiences. Even acquaintances
still
wonder how he will govern.
In an article titled ``The Enigma of the Two Chavezes'' published Sunday
in the El
Universal newspaper, Colombian Nobel literature laureate Gabriel Garcia
Marquez described how he departed from hours of conversation with Chavez
pondering whether he would become the savior of his nation or ``just another
despot.''
While most Venezuelans await Chavez with enthusiasm, some remain uneasy.
Their angst grew recently when the designated foreign minister, Jose Vicente
Rangel, suggested that the Chavez administration may become a ``civilian-military''
regime.
Role of military
Indeed, Chavez has named to key positions a number of former military officers
who supported his unsuccessful military uprising on Feb. 4, 1992, against
then-President Carlos Andres Perez, who now serves as an opposition senator.
Chavez tapped retired military colleagues to head the DISIP political police,
the
transport and communications ministry and the national sports institute.
He
nominated cashiered navy Adm. Hernan Gruber Odreman, who led a second
military uprising on Nov. 27, 1992, as governor of the federal district
of Caracas.
On Monday, Chavez named two former colonels to head the tax collection
agency, which he said would become ``a combat unit'' against corruption.
One of
the colonels, Rafael Dominguez Sequeda, led air support for the second
1992
rebellion.
Furthermore, the president of the Senate, Luis Alfonso Davila, is a former
army
colonel. He is next in the line of presidential succession.
``The Venezuelan armed forces are playing a new role in politics,'' said
Felipe
Mujica, head of the Movement Toward Socialism party, which supports Chavez.
``The fact that we have one retired army officer, Hugo Chavez, as president
and
another retired officer, Luis Davila, as head of Congress . . . indicates
that
something has happened.''
The big losers, Mujica said, are the traditional parties -- the center-left
Democratic
Action and the center-right COPEI -- and party-controlled labor unions,
all of
which Chavez promises to investigate for corruption.
Respect for investments
Chavez showed signs of political savvy immediately after his sweeping electoral
triumph Dec. 6, when he calmed foreign investors with promises to respect
investments and impose ``drastic'' reductions in the bloated public sector.
Bankers and foreign investors had feared the worst, so the reassurances
brought
euphoria. The battered stock market soared.
``He's struck a conciliatory tone,'' former development minister Moises
Naim told
Conexion magazine, ``and the reaction has been positive.''
Moreover, Chavez asked outgoing Finance Minister Maritza Izaguirre to remain
in
her post, knowing that she carries weight with foreign bankers. Others
say he is
still at a loss over what kind of economic policy to impose.
Chavez then hurried off on trips to Europe, the United States and around
Latin
America, putting himself on the world stage. After meeting with Clinton
on Jan. 27,
a White House aide noted ``good chemistry'' between the two leaders and
said
Chavez ``is not the person he was in 1992'' -- the year of his attempted
coup.
Efforts abroad praised
Chavez won plaudits for his role as a statesman, including his offer to
help serve as
a mediator for peace talks with rebels in neighboring Colombia.
``He's got a considerably sophisticated understanding of the complexity
of the
players he's dealing with here and abroad,'' said Eckvall, the political
analyst.
Eckvall noted that, while Chavez has been ``very cautious, very savvy''
in naming a
government team that blends longtime friends, some doctrinaire leftists
and capable
professionals, he has also sent some mixed signals, most recently when
he
suspended part of a U.S. trip in late January, claiming digestive troubles.
``His canceling the trip to New York and leaving 600 Council of Foreign
Relations
and Wall Street people hanging is noted with a great deal of nervousness,''
Eckvall
said.
Those haven't been the only contradictory messages.
In early January, Chavez issued an apology for the ``pain'' caused to the
families of
victims of his bloody 1992 insurrection, his first such public statement.
Yet he has ordered the normal military parade held on his inauguration
day to be
postponed until Thursday, the anniversary of the uprising.
Presidential longevity
While pledging to respect democratic principles, Chavez hinted recently
that he
may seek a constitutional change to allow two consecutive terms. His supporters
have responded with enthusiasm.
Upon his inauguration, Chavez and Congress will be pitted in a race against
time.
Chavez has given Congress until Feb. 15 to approve his plans for a referendum
on
whether to convoke a Constituent Assembly to rewrite the 1961 constitution.
If Congress does not approve the referendum, Chavez says, he may shut down
Congress and issue a decree that sets the referendum anyway.
Some experts are wary of the plans to plunge Venezuela into a constitutional
debate as it walks an economic tightrope.
``A Constituent Assembly could serve as an escape valve for political tensions,''
ex-minister Naim wrote. ``Poorly handled, it also could become a storm
that
thrashes the nation and, instead of leading to progress, leads to backwardness.''
Copyright © 1999 The Miami Herald