The Miami Herald
February 2, 1999
 
 
Venezuela's course unclear as Chavez takes office today

             By TIM JOHNSON
             Herald Staff Writer

             CARACAS -- Since his triumph in early December, President-elect Hugo Chavez
             has been on a whirlwind campaign. He has visited 11 countries, dropped by the
             White House, put together a Cabinet team and met with key international lenders.

             Now, it's time to get busy.

             Chavez takes office today, and the former military coup leader faces a daunting
             array of challenges. Poor Venezuelans who swept Chavez to power want to see
             prosperity quickly, yet oil prices keep dropping, leaving state coffers empty.
             Moreover, if Chavez does not act prudently, his nation risks falling into the world
             financial maelstrom that is battering neighboring Brazil.

             ``What Chavez has to do is make decisions very, very fast,'' said Erik Eckvall, a
             political analyst and longtime resident of Venezuela.

             If the transition period is any indication, the 44-year-old Chavez is able to move
             rapidly, far more quickly than Rafael Caldera, the 83-year-old president he will
             replace.

             His vigor is without dispute. On Friday, a beaming Chavez threw the first pitch in a
             game between Venezuela's two leading baseball teams.

             What remains deeply in question is where Chavez will take his presidency. Wildly
             popular with the poor, Chavez has turned political ambiguity into an art form,
             issuing contradictory statements to different audiences. Even acquaintances still
             wonder how he will govern.

             In an article titled ``The Enigma of the Two Chavezes'' published Sunday in the El
             Universal newspaper, Colombian Nobel literature laureate Gabriel Garcia
             Marquez described how he departed from hours of conversation with Chavez
             pondering whether he would become the savior of his nation or ``just another
             despot.''

             While most Venezuelans await Chavez with enthusiasm, some remain uneasy.
             Their angst grew recently when the designated foreign minister, Jose Vicente
             Rangel, suggested that the Chavez administration may become a ``civilian-military''
             regime.

             Role of military

             Indeed, Chavez has named to key positions a number of former military officers
             who supported his unsuccessful military uprising on Feb. 4, 1992, against
             then-President Carlos Andres Perez, who now serves as an opposition senator.

             Chavez tapped retired military colleagues to head the DISIP political police, the
             transport and communications ministry and the national sports institute. He
             nominated cashiered navy Adm. Hernan Gruber Odreman, who led a second
             military uprising on Nov. 27, 1992, as governor of the federal district of Caracas.

             On Monday, Chavez named two former colonels to head the tax collection
             agency, which he said would become ``a combat unit'' against corruption. One of
             the colonels, Rafael Dominguez Sequeda, led air support for the second 1992
             rebellion.

             Furthermore, the president of the Senate, Luis Alfonso Davila, is a former army
             colonel. He is next in the line of presidential succession.

             ``The Venezuelan armed forces are playing a new role in politics,'' said Felipe
             Mujica, head of the Movement Toward Socialism party, which supports Chavez.
             ``The fact that we have one retired army officer, Hugo Chavez, as president and
             another retired officer, Luis Davila, as head of Congress . . . indicates that
             something has happened.''

             The big losers, Mujica said, are the traditional parties -- the center-left Democratic
             Action and the center-right COPEI -- and party-controlled labor unions, all of
             which Chavez promises to investigate for corruption.

             Respect for investments

             Chavez showed signs of political savvy immediately after his sweeping electoral
             triumph Dec. 6, when he calmed foreign investors with promises to respect
             investments and impose ``drastic'' reductions in the bloated public sector.

             Bankers and foreign investors had feared the worst, so the reassurances brought
             euphoria. The battered stock market soared.

             ``He's struck a conciliatory tone,'' former development minister Moises Naim told
             Conexion magazine, ``and the reaction has been positive.''

             Moreover, Chavez asked outgoing Finance Minister Maritza Izaguirre to remain in
             her post, knowing that she carries weight with foreign bankers. Others say he is
             still at a loss over what kind of economic policy to impose.

             Chavez then hurried off on trips to Europe, the United States and around Latin
             America, putting himself on the world stage. After meeting with Clinton on Jan. 27,
             a White House aide noted ``good chemistry'' between the two leaders and said
             Chavez ``is not the person he was in 1992'' -- the year of his attempted coup.

             Efforts abroad praised

             Chavez won plaudits for his role as a statesman, including his offer to help serve as
             a mediator for peace talks with rebels in neighboring Colombia.

             ``He's got a considerably sophisticated understanding of the complexity of the
             players he's dealing with here and abroad,'' said Eckvall, the political analyst.

             Eckvall noted that, while Chavez has been ``very cautious, very savvy'' in naming a
             government team that blends longtime friends, some doctrinaire leftists and capable
             professionals, he has also sent some mixed signals, most recently when he
             suspended part of a U.S. trip in late January, claiming digestive troubles.

             ``His canceling the trip to New York and leaving 600 Council of Foreign Relations
             and Wall Street people hanging is noted with a great deal of nervousness,'' Eckvall
             said.

             Those haven't been the only contradictory messages.

             In early January, Chavez issued an apology for the ``pain'' caused to the families of
             victims of his bloody 1992 insurrection, his first such public statement.

             Yet he has ordered the normal military parade held on his inauguration day to be
             postponed until Thursday, the anniversary of the uprising.

             Presidential longevity

             While pledging to respect democratic principles, Chavez hinted recently that he
             may seek a constitutional change to allow two consecutive terms. His supporters
             have responded with enthusiasm.

             Upon his inauguration, Chavez and Congress will be pitted in a race against time.
             Chavez has given Congress until Feb. 15 to approve his plans for a referendum on
             whether to convoke a Constituent Assembly to rewrite the 1961 constitution.

             If Congress does not approve the referendum, Chavez says, he may shut down
             Congress and issue a decree that sets the referendum anyway.

             Some experts are wary of the plans to plunge Venezuela into a constitutional
             debate as it walks an economic tightrope.

             ``A Constituent Assembly could serve as an escape valve for political tensions,''
             ex-minister Naim wrote. ``Poorly handled, it also could become a storm that
             thrashes the nation and, instead of leading to progress, leads to backwardness.''
 

 

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