The Miami Herald
May 24, 2000

Chavez poised for easy win in Venezuelan vote Sunday

BY TIM JOHNSON

 CARACAS -- Jobs have grown more scarce, crime is on the rise and the benefits
 of soaring world oil prices have largely eluded this oil-rich nation. But for a
 majority of Venezuelans, President Hugo Chavez can do little wrong.

 Voters are sure to give Chavez a landslide victory Sunday in an election that will
 keep him in office until 2006, two polls show.

 Chavez, 45, says there is not an iota of doubt that he'll win.

 ``Even rocks know that,'' he said cockily.

 The former army paratrooper's brash manner has earned him numerous enemies
 but he retains massive popular support. His supporters have redrawn Venezuela's
 political system in the nearly 16 months since Chavez came to office, but the
 time and energy put into that effort has come at the expense of economic and
 social planning.

 Most Venezuelans don't hold it against him.

 ``People say, `President Chavez hasn't had enough time,' or `I started out with
 Chavez and I want to see how he turns out.' That's what people in our focus
 groups tell us,'' said Luis Vicente Leon of the Datanalisis polling firm.

 Scrapping a political system they considered graft-ridden, Venezuelans approved
 a new national constitution in December that abolished the Senate, banned the
 sale of the huge state oil company, allowed presidents to serve two consecutive
 six-year terms and consolidated power in the presidency. Chavez is seen as the
 spearhead of the changes.

 ``He's been like a bulldozer that has passed over . . . the political system,'' said
 Saul Cabrera, head of the Consultores 21 market research firm.

 Many Venezuelans hunger for more reforms.

 ``People still affirm that Venezuela needs radical change. Seventy-three percent
 think this,'' Cabrera said.

 At stake in Sunday's nationwide vote are about 6,000 elected posts, from the
 presidency, through all legislative and municipal posts and 23 governorships,
 down to the lowliest council member of the nation's 330 or so townships.

 Technical problems have marred preparations, and National Electoral Council
 President Estanislao Gonzalez said Tuesday that the vote is ``in jeopardy.''

 He blamed an Omaha, Neb., contractor, Election Systems & Software, for
 delaying delivery of vote-tabulating software and contended the firm is part of a
 ``destabilizing campaign . . . directed so that the May 28 electoral process
 doesn't occur.''

 Chavez appeared unconcerned about the problems, however. In a speech
 Tuesday night, Chavez feigned not to know when his own inauguration would be,
 and said it would wait until his return from a tour of the Middle East in mid-June.

 ECONOMIC PROMISES

 Chavez brushed off criticism that he has devoted too little time to the economy,
 which shrank 7.2 percent last year and elevated the number of jobless workers by
 400,000 to 1.8 million people despite rising oil prices.

 ``It was impossible -- absolutely impossible! -- to launch the productive sector last
 year,'' Chavez said, complaining that he had been given the controls of a ``plane
 with the engines burned out.'' But he promised to revive economic growth and
 usher in a ``Venezuelan golden age.''

 Chavez's principal opponent, Francisco Arias Cardenas, 49, a fellow army
 lieutenant colonel and ``blood brother'' of Chavez in a failed coup attempt in 1992,
 has portrayed himself as a more able administrator. Arias Cardenas served two
 terms as governor of oil-rich Zulia state.

 Chavez has voiced contempt for what he sees as betrayal by Arias Cardenas,
 who broke with the president in March. Chavez has refused to debate him.

 In response, Arias Cardenas aired television ads this month that show him in a
 debate with a hen.

 A nationwide survey by the Consultores 21 polling firm conducted last week gave
 Chavez a 23.6 percent lead over Arias Cardenas, while a Datanalisis poll offered
 Chavez a 17 percent advantage.

 DISREGARD SHOWN

 In the run-up to the vote, Chavez has shown disregard for other onetime political
 allies, announcing that his Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) would not accept the
 support of the leftist Homeland For All party, embittering its members.

 ``President Chavez has a hegemonic vision that his party, the MVR, can carry out
 this process of change by itself, but this is impossible,'' said Xiomara Lucena, a
 Homeland For All leader.

 Even trusted aides to Chavez say he must now show an ability to negotiate with
 opponents and master the give-and-take of democracy.

 ``A new challenge lies before President Chavez, and that is the challenge of
 dialogue,'' Foreign Minister Jose Vicente Rangel said. `` . . . Implementing serious
 policies is the product of dialogue.''

 Whether Chavez can -- or wants to -- bridge the deepening divisions among
 economic and social classes is unclear.

 ``What we are seeing are very strong, very marked social divisions, perhaps more
 notable than at any time in Venezuela since [the return of democracy in] 1958,''
 Leon said.

 But Leon said he expects Chavez to offer ``a totally moderate speech'' after his
 Sunday election victory, in an effort to calm financial markets.