Chavez poised for easy win in Venezuelan vote Sunday
BY TIM JOHNSON
CARACAS -- Jobs have grown more scarce, crime is on the rise and
the benefits
of soaring world oil prices have largely eluded this oil-rich
nation. But for a
majority of Venezuelans, President Hugo Chavez can do little
wrong.
Voters are sure to give Chavez a landslide victory Sunday in an
election that will
keep him in office until 2006, two polls show.
Chavez, 45, says there is not an iota of doubt that he'll win.
``Even rocks know that,'' he said cockily.
The former army paratrooper's brash manner has earned him numerous
enemies
but he retains massive popular support. His supporters have redrawn
Venezuela's
political system in the nearly 16 months since Chavez came to
office, but the
time and energy put into that effort has come at the expense
of economic and
social planning.
Most Venezuelans don't hold it against him.
``People say, `President Chavez hasn't had enough time,' or `I
started out with
Chavez and I want to see how he turns out.' That's what people
in our focus
groups tell us,'' said Luis Vicente Leon of the Datanalisis polling
firm.
Scrapping a political system they considered graft-ridden, Venezuelans
approved
a new national constitution in December that abolished the Senate,
banned the
sale of the huge state oil company, allowed presidents to serve
two consecutive
six-year terms and consolidated power in the presidency. Chavez
is seen as the
spearhead of the changes.
``He's been like a bulldozer that has passed over . . . the political
system,'' said
Saul Cabrera, head of the Consultores 21 market research firm.
Many Venezuelans hunger for more reforms.
``People still affirm that Venezuela needs radical change. Seventy-three
percent
think this,'' Cabrera said.
At stake in Sunday's nationwide vote are about 6,000 elected posts,
from the
presidency, through all legislative and municipal posts and 23
governorships,
down to the lowliest council member of the nation's 330 or so
townships.
Technical problems have marred preparations, and National Electoral
Council
President Estanislao Gonzalez said Tuesday that the vote is ``in
jeopardy.''
He blamed an Omaha, Neb., contractor, Election Systems & Software,
for
delaying delivery of vote-tabulating software and contended the
firm is part of a
``destabilizing campaign . . . directed so that the May 28 electoral
process
doesn't occur.''
Chavez appeared unconcerned about the problems, however. In a
speech
Tuesday night, Chavez feigned not to know when his own inauguration
would be,
and said it would wait until his return from a tour of the Middle
East in mid-June.
ECONOMIC PROMISES
Chavez brushed off criticism that he has devoted too little time
to the economy,
which shrank 7.2 percent last year and elevated the number of
jobless workers by
400,000 to 1.8 million people despite rising oil prices.
``It was impossible -- absolutely impossible! -- to launch the
productive sector last
year,'' Chavez said, complaining that he had been given the controls
of a ``plane
with the engines burned out.'' But he promised to revive economic
growth and
usher in a ``Venezuelan golden age.''
Chavez's principal opponent, Francisco Arias Cardenas, 49, a fellow
army
lieutenant colonel and ``blood brother'' of Chavez in a failed
coup attempt in 1992,
has portrayed himself as a more able administrator. Arias Cardenas
served two
terms as governor of oil-rich Zulia state.
Chavez has voiced contempt for what he sees as betrayal by Arias
Cardenas,
who broke with the president in March. Chavez has refused to
debate him.
In response, Arias Cardenas aired television ads this month that
show him in a
debate with a hen.
A nationwide survey by the Consultores 21 polling firm conducted
last week gave
Chavez a 23.6 percent lead over Arias Cardenas, while a Datanalisis
poll offered
Chavez a 17 percent advantage.
DISREGARD SHOWN
In the run-up to the vote, Chavez has shown disregard for other
onetime political
allies, announcing that his Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) would
not accept the
support of the leftist Homeland For All party, embittering its
members.
``President Chavez has a hegemonic vision that his party, the
MVR, can carry out
this process of change by itself, but this is impossible,'' said
Xiomara Lucena, a
Homeland For All leader.
Even trusted aides to Chavez say he must now show an ability to
negotiate with
opponents and master the give-and-take of democracy.
``A new challenge lies before President Chavez, and that is the
challenge of
dialogue,'' Foreign Minister Jose Vicente Rangel said. `` . .
. Implementing serious
policies is the product of dialogue.''
Whether Chavez can -- or wants to -- bridge the deepening divisions
among
economic and social classes is unclear.
``What we are seeing are very strong, very marked social divisions,
perhaps more
notable than at any time in Venezuela since [the return of democracy
in] 1958,''
Leon said.
But Leon said he expects Chavez to offer ``a totally moderate
speech'' after his
Sunday election victory, in an effort to calm financial markets.