By CLIFFORD KRAUSS
CARACAS, Venezuela
-- Since his election seven weeks ago, "Hurricane Hugo," as
President-elect
Hugo Chavez is popularly called, has barnstormed Europe, Latin America
and
the United States
sending mixed signals about how he will govern Venezuela.
On Tuesday he
will put on the presidential sash at an inauguration that will launch what
promises to
be a presidency
of surprises.
The 44-year-old
former lieutenant colonel has promised a revolution to clean up the government's
chronic corruption.
He also pledges to break the stranglehold of the two traditional political
parties
by holding a
referendum that would lead to the drafting of a new constitution.
But on other
matters, like how he will manage the ailing economy, deal with the United
States and
Cuba and recalibrate
the flow of oil exports, analysts say he remains a question mark.
Chavez has been
an international curiosity since he tried unsuccessfully to overthrow an
elected
civilian government
with a military coup in 1992. Afterward he was cashiered from the Venezuelan
Army and spent
two years in jail.
Despite his checkered
relations with some in the military, he made the red beret worn by many
army
units the symbol
of his election campaign and proclaimed his admiration for Fidel Castro
and the
Cuban Revolution.
Since his election
he has been wearing well-tailored suits, but Chavez has basked in his bad-boy
image. "I am
being compared to Mussolini, Hitler or even the devil," he told reporters
in Paris last
month with a
characteristic guffaw. "But I am a social fighter and a democrat."
Chavez's globe-trotting
was aimed at polishing his image and calming foreign investors who steadily
withdrew money
from Venezuela's stock market last year in anticipation of his election.
Here and abroad,
he told investors that he would not impose exchange controls or default
on the
national debt.
He said he would defend the Venezuelan currency, the bolivar, even though
analysts
say it is at
least 25 percent overvalued. He also promised to slash the government's
bureaucracy,
strengthen central
bank automony, raise the sales tax and encourage foreign investment.
With oil prices
at a 12-year low and the government's interest payments on its debt expected
to rise
to 40 percent
of the budget this year, analysts say Chavez will probably have little
room to maneuver
if he wishes
to avert the kind of currency turbulence now unsettling the Brazilian economy.
On oil policy,
Chavez's aides have said they would support efforts by the Organization
of Petroleum
Exporting Countries
to raise the price of crude. But they would not commit themselves to a
production cut.
While campaigning
Chavez promised to reverse Venezuela's practice of pumping more than its
OPEC quota.
Venezuela is the leading source of foreign oil to the United States and
is the
second-biggest
petroleum exporter in the world.
"The cliche is
that there are two Chavezes and we don't know which one will be inaugurated,"
said
Roberto Bottome,
editor of a Venezuelan business journal. "He has moderated his message
in tone if
not in content."
Still, Chavez's
oratory has remained hard to decipher in recent weeks as he has painted
himself as
both an economic
realist and a left-leaning populist.
Two weeks ago
Chavez told a group of businessmen that he wanted to install a system "where
market forces
truly work, where the state will be the engine of progress." In Washington
last week,
Chavez met with
President Clinton for 20 minutes and pledged his commitment to democracy.
But on a visit
to Cuba last month, Chavez embraced President Castro anew.
Copyright 1999 The New York Times Company