BY PHIL GUNSON
Special to The Herald

CARACAS - A month after suffering a crushing defeat in a vote to recall President Hugo Chávez, Venezuela's opposition coalition is facing a crisis of leadership, and even of identity.

The government is refusing contacts with the umbrella Democratic Coordinator, and even within its own ranks, many in the coalition are calling for a complete reconsideration of its strategy and a new leadership.

The continued existence of the Coordinator as such is far from guaranteed, and its chances in next month's state and mayoral elections are poor, analysts say.

''Holding them together wasn't such a problem so long as their main objective was the removal of Chávez,'' said Eleazar Díaz Rangel, editor of the Ultimas Noticias newspaper. ``But now that's been put off until 2006 [the next presidential election], they have to act more like normal opposition parties.''

''The regional elections,'' Díaz added, ``will stimulate the breakup of the Coordinator.''

On Oct. 31, the country is due to go to the polls to elect mayors and state governors. But with the opposition continuing to insist that there was a ''gigantic fraud'' in the Aug. 15 recall vote -- which Chávez won by a 60 percent to 40 percent margin -- their supporters have every reason to stay home, rather than voting.

Representatives of some smaller members of the coalition already have indicated that they may not take part in the balloting. But factions that stand to lose power at state and municipal levels if they abstain are attempting the difficult feat of claiming fraud while planning an election campaign.

AN `UNBURIED CORPSE'

The Coordinator is made up of 25 political parties and almost as many civic action groups.

Vice President José Vicente Rangel has taken a belligerent line against the Coordinator in his public statements, calling it an ''unburied corpse'' and arguing that there is no point talking to its leaders because the coalition ``does not exist.''

But even on the opposition side there have been calls for a change. At a news conference at his home in the city of Valencia recently, former presidential candidate Henrique Salas Rmer was blunt.

''The Coordinator's time has passed,'' Salas said. ``The time has come for new leaders to emerge.''

A former governor of the state of Carabobo and father of the current governor, Salas is head of the right-wing Project Venezuela party. He lost to Chávez in 1998.

Leonardo Carvajal, a member of the Coordinator's political committee, resigned in protest after the coalition refused to accept the resignation of its leader, Enrique Mendoza, on Aug. 17

''This is our third failure'' to remove Chávez, Carvajal told The Herald. ``And the failure to engage in healthy criticism on the first two occasions hindered our recovery.''

He attributed the failure to win the referendum in part to ``pettiness and self-interest prevailing over principles.''

The opposition's problem, some observers argue, is not circumstantial but systemic. It is the product of a long-term decline of the country's political parties, which predates the Chávez government -- and which greatly contributed to his rise to power.

''The parties lost their genuine, deep connection to Venezuelan society,'' said Gerver Torres, who was a government minister in the early 1990s and now heads an organization called Leadership and Vision.

''Today they are fundamentally media parties,'' Torres argues, ``created in TV studios and interviews. They are happy convening marches and rallies, but they forgot about organization.''

In the short-to-medium term, the opposition's prospects look bleak despite the four million votes against Chávez in the recall vote. With the price of oil -- Venezuela's mainstay and a government monopoly -- expected to remain high, the president is in the driver's seat.

WANTED: FRESH FACES

Inevitably, however, a new opposition leadership will have to emerge. And much may depend on which political figures survive the regional elections.

Newspaper editor Rangel said one such new leader might be Manuel Rosales, the governor of western Zulia state, the country's most populous and a stronghold of anti-Chávez sentiment. Rosales has kept his distance from the Coordinator.

But Gerver Torres believes the new leaders will emerge from grass-roots organizations.

''One of the things we see as we travel around the country is the gradual emergence of many small movements -- groups that are very isolated but very widespread,'' he said.

Torres also points out that the current strength of the Chávez regime may conceal some fundamental weaknesses, as shown by recent disputes over candidacies and unrest even within the presidential palace.

''There are two particularly dangerous moments for a player or a politician,'' Torres argued. ``Right after a big defeat -- or right after a big victory.''