CNN
November 9, 1998
 
Venezuelan elite wary of leftist election victory
Strong showing puts Chavez on presidential track

 
 

                  CARACAS, Venezuela (CNN) -- Venezuela's army and wealthy elite
                  reacted nervously Monday to a major electoral victory by a leftist coalition
                  headed by former coup leader Hugo Chavez.

                  Chavez's Patriotic Pole movement won the largest share of Venezuela's
                  parliament in nationwide balloting for governors and congressmen, sending
                  the stock market sharply lower and stirring worries that the army might start
                  flexing its muscle.

                  But millions of Venezuelans, angered over declining living standards, were
                  elated by Sunday's election results, which gave Chavez a major boost in his
                  bid for the presidency in December 6 elections.

                  'The Venezuelan people have awakened'

                  "The man you see here is the next president," a confident Chavez told a
                  television interviewer. "The Venezuelan people have awakened. We are
                  going to build a new democracy."

                  Best known for leading a bloody attempt to topple the government in 1992,
                  political analysts and diplomats now agree that Chavez is the front-runner for
                  next month's presidential election.

                  Analysts said the army paratrooper-turned-politician's strongest support
                  came from the more populated and poorer areas, where his radical,
                  anti-corruption message strikes a chord.

                  "The impression I get is you have a class vote and also a class struggle," said
                  Nicolas Toledo of the local polling firm Consultores 21.

                  Venezuela controls the largest oil reserves outside the Middle East, but that
                  has clearly not benefited the majority of its 23 million people. The average
                  monthly family income for a family of five is around $400.

                  A setback to traditional parties

                    Sunday's vote was a devastating setback to Democratic Action and
                    Copei, the traditional parties that have ruled Venezuela for decades.

                    Though final results were not available Monday afternoon, the early tally
                    showed Patriotic Pole winning 34 percent of the congressional seats.
                    Democratic Action won about 22 percent, and Copei took 11 percent.

                  Project Venezuela, a new party led by Chavez's main challenger,
                  Yale-educated businessman Henrique Salas, had about 12 percent.

                  Venezuelans swamped polling stations to elect 189 lower house members,
                  48 senators, 23 governors and 391 state assembly members.

                  Chavez tones down populist rhetoric

                  Aware that his candidacy has polarized the country, Chavez has toned down
                  his populist rhetoric in recent months, calling for a version of British Prime
                  Minister Tony Blair's Third Way -- a compromise between unfettered
                  capitalism and socialism.

                  It's not clear, however, if the business community is buying it. The election
                  results were received joyously in the hillside slums ringing Caracas, but
                  ominously in the plush tree-lined neighborhoods of the wealthy.

                  "If he is the Chavez who most people think he is -- the populist, the Peronist,
                  the guy who's going to set the clock back -- then this is not only bad news,
                  it's disastrous news," said economist Roberto Bottome.

                  "If on the other hand, he's the Tony Blair who some people think he is, it's
                  not bad news," Bottome added. "In the meantime, if I were an investor, I'd
                  stay away."

                  Within the first 15 minutes of trading Monday, the Caracas stock exchange
                  fell 2.5 percent on news of Chavez's success, and ended even lower, down
                  3.4 percent for the day.

                  Opposition may regroup

                  While strengthening Chavez's presidential prospects, Sunday's vote also
                  could cause anti-Chavez factions to regroup in a unified alliance, possibly led
                  by Project Venezuela's Salas.

                  Among those most vehemently opposed to Chavez is army chief Gen.
                  Ruben Rojas Perez, who recently implied the armed forces would seek to
                  block his rise to power.

                  "There will surely be problems because of Chavez's conspiratorial past and
                  his lack of moral authority to be the commander in chief of the armed
                  forces," said Gen. Fernando Ochoa Antich, who was defense minister during
                  Chavez's attempted coup.

                  Current President Rafael Caldera has been trying to calm the waters by
                  promising to respect the voters' will. His Convergence Party, which broke
                  away from Copei five years ago, was not a major player in Sunday's
                  balloting.

                  'No reason to live in misery'

                  As expected, Democratic Action and Copei captured most of Venezuela's
                  23 governorships on Sunday. But Chavez's coalition won seven races for
                  governor in states that comprise more than a third of the country's
                  population. And in a surprise showing, Chavez's father, Hugo de los Reyes
                  Chavez, was elected governor of the western state of Barinas.

                  Although the roots of Venezuela's deep economic woes are complex, most
                  people blame the traditional parties for squandering the country's wealth.

                  "If you have gold and diamonds in your garden, there is no reason to live in
                  misery," said Luis Castillo, a 58-year-old house painter who supports
                  Chavez.

                  Carlos Andres Perez, the former president whom Chavez tried to overthrow
                  six years ago, won a senate seat in his home state of Tachira. Promising to
                  oppose a possible Chavez administration, he said Sunday's results "did not
                  help but instead aggravated the circumstances in which Venezuela's social
                  and political life is played out."

                  While running for the senate, Perez had been under house arrest pending
                  charges of illegal enrichment. His victory gives him parliamentary immunity
                  and his freedom.

                       The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.