By TIM JOHNSON
Herald Staff Writer

CARACAS -- Since the arrest in 1994 of the alleged international terrorist
known as ``Carlos the Jackal,'' his family has sought help from officials in his
native Venezuela to act on his behalf in France, where he is imprisoned.

Traditionally, the family has been rebuffed. But today, the father and brother of
Carlos are scheduled to meet President Hugo Chavez's foreign minister.

Carlos, whose real name is Ilich Ramirez, is linked to the 1972 massacre of
Israeli Olympic athletes and the 1976 hijacking of an Air France flight to
Entebbe, Uganda. He was snatched out of Sudan in 1994 and jailed in Paris,
where he admitted to 83 terrorist killings.

It is an odd saga, one that has Venezuelans chattering. Ten days ago, a letter
from Chavez to Carlos was leaked to the press.

In the letter, Chavez shared his thoughts on proper timing for revolutions and
signed off acknowledging ``profound faith in the cause.''

Some Venezuelans are aghast.

``Who is he going to write to next? To Noriega? To Pinochet?'' House of
Representatives Speaker Henrique Capriles asked in an interview.

Venezuelans like Capriles say the Carlos episode underscores the
unpredictability of Chavez. Three months after assuming the presidency,
Chavez still bedazzles the majority of the poor with his energy and demands
for dramatic change. But others remain unsettled by signs of radicalism. Some
ask if Chavez will stick to the rules of democracy.

``We don't really know,'' said Edmond J. Saade of the Datos market research
firm. ``This is a big question mark.''

Even as Chavez launches Venezuela on a dramatic quest to recreate itself, he
has yet to dispel doubts about his willingness to tolerate opposition. Earlier this
month, Chavez bullied Congress and the Supreme Court, threatening to
dissolve both bodies. Aides defended the combative style, saying it brought
results. Others say Chavez improvises and remains enigmatic.

``Did you ever see that movie Big about a boy in a big person's body? Chavez
is sort of like that,'' said Janet Kelly, director of the Center for Public Policy at
the Institute for Advanced Studies in Administration. ``He's a sponge. He's
learning every day. He's got a mix of inconsistent and contradictory lines in his
mind.''

Questions about Chavez promise to loom larger. Last week, Congress gave
him unprecedented economic powers. And soon his political power will also
grow.

On Sunday, voters wiped the slate clean. Obeying Chavez's call for a
``peaceful revolution,'' they agreed to elect a 131-seat assembly to write a
new constitution and virtually found a new country. Until the charter is
implemented, Chavez will have largely free rein.

How the next months will unfold is unclear. A leading newspaper, El Universal,
printed a full page this week with four vastly different scenarios. A probable
one, it said, is a rocky period in which Congress and the Supreme Court
function until a new charter is implemented. Under the worst scenario, Chavez
abolishes all institutions and governs by decree. It termed this scenario
improbable.

Most Venezuelans support Chavez, and many even adore him. Opinion polls
routinely give the former army coup plotter more than 80 percent backing.

``The people feel he is some kind of political messiah who is going to help out
in every aspect of society,'' said Saade, whose firm does opinion polling.

``He's so popular. And there's a propensity to give him time to deliver.''

In his casual but forceful style, Chavez appears on television frequently to
explain his position; this week, he's been on twice.

``He says things in a way that reflects the feeling among Venezuelans of . . .
unconformity with the status quo,'' said Ramon Guillermo Aveledo, a legislator
from the opposition center-right COPEI party.

Some observers give Chavez the benefit of the doubt.

``If you just go by what Chavez says, you'd get very worried. I have days
when I think, `Is this guy fooling everybody?' '' Kelly said. ``But if you
absolutely, just coldly look at what he does, his actions, he seems to be an
able politician who cajoles, threatens and gets what he wants. Up to now, he
hasn't done anything that would seem out of line.''

Kelly noted that enthusiasm is growing for the Constituent Assembly, which
promises ``a total realignment of political groups'' and may revitalize
Venezuela's faltering democracy. ``When you open up a system, you can't
predict where it's going to go,'' she said.

Others are less optimistic, fearing that Chavez wants to tailor a new
constitution to his stated intention to stay in office for several terms.

``He has a plan for obtaining ever greater power,'' Aveledo said. He wants to
do so ``without violence or abusing human rights'' but he'll use ``very
aggressive'' tactics when he finds opposition.

One tactic is to deploy protesters. Last week, protesters blocked Congress,
demanding that legislators approve a sweeping Enabling Law to free Chavez's
hand on economic matters.

``These people were under orders,'' said Capriles, the House speaker. ``The
order was to protest . . . and create a climate of tension.''

It worked. Congress gave Chavez what he sought. But Capriles said he was
left with the feeling that Chavez may act similarly against the upcoming
Constituent Assembly.

``If he can't control it, he'll sabotage it,'' Capriles said. ``He wants no
resistance whatsoever.''

Whether justified or not, nervousness over Chavez is palpable in the
newsrooms of newspapers and television newscasts, where critical words are
few -- and off the record.

``There is not a single news outlet that has dared challenge Chavez,'' said one
senior editor, who requested anonymity. The editor said media owners ``fear
Chavez could become a dictator and do anything, like throw them in jail.''

That has softened coverage of issues like the Carlos letter, which marked the
second time Chavez acknowledged kinship with a radical leftist. He is also
friends with a shady Argentine, Norberto Ceresole, who once advised Marxist
rebels in his homeland and later helped rebellious soldiers calling themselves
the carapintadas.

Ceresole was expelled from Venezuela in 1995 but reappeared at the time of
the Chavez inauguration. Chavez described him as a colleague but said he had
no role in his government.

e-mail: tim.johnson@newscom.com
 
 

                     Copyright 1999 Miami Herald