BY CHRISTINA HOAG
 Special to The Herald

 CARACAS -- After winning control of most of Venezuela's political institutions, President Hugo Chávez will probably fail this week in his attempt to take control of the country's labor unions, among the last bastions of opposition.

 On Thursday, about 1.1 million unionized workers are slated to head to the polls to elect a new president of the Venezuelan Workers' Confederation (CTV).

 `PEACEFUL REVOLUTION'

 It's a vote long advocated by Chávez as a facet of his ``peaceful revolution'' to do away with corruption in the country's institutions and install social justice.

 But despite the president's triumph in last December's referendum -- which asked Venezuelans whether they wanted elections in the CTV -- the final result is not expected to go as Chávez envisioned.

 If the president's handpicked candidate, former Caracas Mayor Aristóbulo Istúriz, loses, as analysts predict, it will mark Chávez's first defeat at the polls in the eight
 elections held in Venezuela since November 1998.

 ``This is a turning point for Chávez,'' says political scientist and author Anibal Romero. ``The defeat is going to be symbolic, marking a descent in the Chávez myth.''

 OLD-GUARD LEADER

 Istúriz is widely expected to be trounced in favor of old-guard oil union leader Carlos Ortega, a longtime stalwart of the once powerful Democratic Action party.

 Candidates on Ortega's slate, the United Workers' Front, have won approximately 70 percent of the individual union elections that have been held across the country over the past two months in which rank-and-file workers have picked their local leaders.

 Thursday's vote is the culmination of the process, with the election of the CTV leadership, which represents workers in labor issues with government and business as the umbrella union organization.

 ``This is going to be an important factor against President Chávez's hegemony,'' Ortega says.

 WORKERS LEERY

 Analysts say Chávez's attempt to take over the unions -- despite his support base in the working class -- is backfiring because of workers' natural suspicion of a candidate backed by the country's largest employer -- the government.

 ``[Istúriz] is the boss' man,'' says Carlos Raúl Hernández, labor expert at the Simón Bolívar University.

 Observers also signal the likely defeat as a symptom of Chávez's declining following among the general populace and the growing perception that his revolution is
 stagnating. Recent polls put Chávez's popularity at 51 to 54 percent, down from around 59 to 65 percent earlier this year.

 SEEKING CHANGE

 ``This was a revolution based on the working class, but the workers have not seen changes,'' says Hernández.

 Chávez appears to have already distanced himself from the embarrassing prospect of losing a workers' election.

 After an initial spurt of campaigning for Istúriz, whose candidacy the president personally launched in a lavish rally last month, Chávez quietly backed off after results from local union elections started showing little support for his Bolivarian Workers Front and Istúriz struggled to demonstrate that he would represent workers' interests, not the government's.

 Chávez then left for a three-week tour of Europe and the Middle East, which he has unexpectedly extended.

 He is not expected to be in Venezuela for the vote. His absence may be tantamount to recognition that his endorsement is no longer sufficient to carry a candidate,
 observers say.

 DIFFERENT PARTY

 ``The president doesn't mind sacrificing [Istúriz] because he's not from the same political party,'' says Robert Bottome, director of VenEconomy consultants. Istúriz, who is black and has been dubbed by supporters as ``the black Chávez,'' is a leader in the Homeland for All party, which is allied with Chávez's Fifth Republic Movement.

 Some see Thursday's vote as a positive development regardless of who wins, as it marks the first time that the rank-and-file will be voting directly for CTV leaders.

 Previously, the leaders were chosen among themselves in backroom deals.

 ``[The change] is very positive and gives transparency and legitimacy to the process,'' says Alberto Quiroz Corradi, an oil industry consultant.

 Nevertheless, international labor organizations have labeled the election as meddling in union affairs.

 ``Such an evident attitude of government interference in union affairs has not existed in the world,'' says Ivan González, coordinator of the Regional International Labor Organization. ``Not even in dictatorships has this type of open intrusion been seen.''

 The election was originally set for Sept. 29, but the Chávez-appointed National Electoral Council postponed it to Thursday in a move that was widely seen as favoring the underdog chavista candidate.

                                    © 2001