Ex-coup leader poised for presidency

             TIM JOHNSON
             Herald Staff Writer

             CARACAS -- What happens when a renegade army officer suddenly becomes
             leader of a military that once drummed him out of its ranks?

             That question is gaining urgency in Venezuela, where polls show that retired army
             Lt. Col. Hugo Chavez is poised to win the presidency in Dec. 6 elections.

             Just six years ago, the top leadership of the 80,000-man military branded Chavez
             as a disgrace for launching a revolt. He was thrown in jail for more than two years.

             Now, with the presidency within his reach, Chavez faces reports of military
             dissension over his candidacy. Coup rumors -- apparently unsubstantiated -- have
             spread, reaching a crescendo last week when former President Carlos Andres
             Perez affirmed that a military plot is brewing to postpone or halt the election.

             ``Although I in no way wish it or support it, I see the threat of a `preventative'
             coup as a possibility,'' Perez told The Herald.

             While such assertions are unsubstantiated, and fiercely denied by the armed forces,
             analysts say Chavez has reason to worry about military stability.

             A question of seniority

             Some senior military officials bristle at the prospect of Chavez coming in to lead
             officers once senior to him, several analysts said.

             Further, military discipline might be tested if Chavez decides to reinstate scores of
             cashiered officers who supported him when he tried to topple then-President Perez
             in an uprising Feb. 4, 1992. Like Chavez, those officers were thrown out of the
             military.

             Many officers remain neutral in the presidential race or respect Chavez as a
             charismatic former officer, several well-placed sources said. But a small,influential
             group is known to feel dismay at a Chavez presidency. Labeled in Venezuela as
             Pentagonistas, or officers close to the Pentagon, they are reported to include
             President Rafael Caldera's son-in-law, Gen. Ruben Rojas Perez, commander of
             the army.

             Rojas Perez was quoted in several Venezuelan newspapers recently as saying,
             ``The army does not support those who rose up with arms against the republic.''
             The remark was interpreted as a signal against Chavez.

             The military denied that Rojas Perez had made such a remark, but Chavez
             supporters have taken it as fact.

             Fearing vengeance

             A former civilian intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said
             anti-Chavez officers feel that they may be in a corner.

             ``Do you know what kind of desire for vengeance this guy has? He wants to throw
             them all out,'' the former official said.

             According to the source, foes of Chavez -- within the military and outside -- are
             waiting for gubernatorial and mayoral elections Nov. 8 as a litmus test for general
             support for Chavez. If candidates sponsored by the former paratrooper's Fifth
             Republic Movement do well, pressure will build to block his election.

             Some say they think anti-Chavez forces believe that they have the tacit support of
             Washington, which on two occasions has denied Chavez a U.S. visa for his role in
             trying to topple an elected government with a military coup.

             But U.S. Ambassador John Maisto rejected any notion that Washington had
             favorites in the election: ``The U.S. government's only interest . . . is that those
             elections be free, fair and transparent. Whomever the Venezuelan people choose
             to govern them for the next five years is a matter for Venezuelans, and
             Venezuelans only, to decide.''