Political Crisis in Venezuela Worries White House
Declining Popularity of Country's President Threatens Stability of a Key U.S. Oil Supplier
By Peter Slevin
Washington Post Staff Writer
As protests grow against Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, the Bush
administration is increasingly worried that Chavez is facing a political
crisis that could
destabilize one of the top three suppliers of oil to the United States
and spill into neighboring countries, most notably Colombia.
"Venezuela is in a really precarious and dangerous position right now,"
said a State Department official. "If Chavez doesn't fix things soon, he's
not going to finish his
term."
U.S. officials and Latin American diplomats say their primary goal is
to avoid political stalemate in Venezuela and, if Chavez teeters and falls,
any backsliding from
democracy. Three military officers recently demanded Chavez's resignation,
although their appeals triggered no immediate support within the armed
forces.
The White House long tolerated Chavez's maverick populism and his tendency
to tweak the United States -- he embraced Cuban President Fidel Castro
and
opposed U.S. anti-narcotics aid to Colombia, for example. But his criticism
of the U.S. war against terrorism and his sharp-tongued response to domestic
political
opponents changed the dynamic.
Underscoring the administration's concern, President Bush declined to
invite Chavez to join him at a meeting next month with Andean presidents
in Lima, Peru. When
Chavez learned that he would not be included, he personally asked at
least two of the heads of state that they intercede with Bush on his behalf,
according to
diplomatic sources.
Earlier this month, two prominent Bush administration officials publicly criticized Chavez on Capitol Hill.
CIA Director George J. Tenet told the Senate intelligence committee
that he was "particularly concerned" about events in Venezuela and predicted
the "crisis
atmosphere is likely to worsen" at a time when Latin America is becoming
"increasingly volatile." Secretary of State Colin L. Powell cited a series
of disturbing
decisions.
"We've had our ambassador go in on a couple of occasions, and he becomes
quite defensive," Powell said. He added that U.S. diplomats have asked
Latin
American allies to press Chavez to aid the anti-terror war and take
stronger economic steps.
Governments of the countries surrounding Venezuela suspect Chavez has
gone beyond incendiary rhetoric and now backs opposition groups in their
countries,
according to one Latin American diplomat. He pointed to a rise in Venezuelan
nationalism and disputes with Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru, Guyana, Trinidad
and Colombia,
where Chavez is suspected of supporting anti-government rebels.
Chavez promised a leftist revolution when he was elected in 1998. He
crafted an anti-American image while retaining the United States as Venezuela's
biggest oil
customer. U.S. annoyance turned to anger in October when Chavez displayed
a photograph of dead Afghan children, said the Americans were "fighting
terror with
terror" and called on the Bush administration to stop "the slaughter
of innocents."
The State Department recalled ambassador Donna Hrinak for "consultations."
When she returned, she had what one U.S. official called a "very difficult
meeting" with
Chavez, in which she told him "to keep his mouth shut on these important
issues."
Chavez also dented relations during a tour of fellow OPEC countries
when he visited Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi, despite a pledge that Tripoli
would not be on
the itinerary. Chavez also has visited Cuba and OPEC members Iran and
Iraq. The United States considers all four countries to be state sponsors
of terrorism.
"He drops in in some of the strangest countries to visit," Powell said.
"I'm not sure what inspiration he thinks he gets or what benefit he gives
to the Venezuelan people
from dropping in and visiting some of these despotic regimes."
Chavez has done his rhetorical best to demonize much of the media, the
trade unions, the wealthy elite and the business community. By issuing
decrees and becoming
what Rep. Cass Ballenger (R-N.C.) called "basically a one-man government,"
Chavez has solidified his power while drawing criticism on human rights
grounds.
The Venezuelan economy has been declining along with oil prices. Chavez's
once tremendous popularity has ebbed. A one-day general strike on Dec.
10 was
followed by mass protest on Jan. 23.
Opponents are energized, but they have no coherent plan to overcome
an elected president whose term does not expire until 2005. A senior politician
in another
Andean country said the domestic turmoil is "going so fast. It has
its own rhythm." He cautioned that the appearance of a U.S. determination
to replace Chavez could
build domestic support for him.
The Bush administration is telling Chavez supporters and opponents that
it is worried about a potential constitutional crisis, but intends to avoid
being drawn into
Venezuelan domestic politics. Said a State Department official: "We're
not going to provide the solution."
When Air Force Col. Pedro Soto called on Feb. 7 for Chavez to resign,
triggering further street protests, Organization of American States Secretary-General
Cesar
Gaviria demanded that Soto obey orders, calling his statement "unacceptable."
Gaviria cited the need to preserve "the democracies which have been built
with so
much effort in this hemisphere."
Rep. William D. Delahunt (D-Mass.), said the Bush administration must
send a message to the Venezuelan opposition that "those who attempt in
any way to
undermine a legitimately elected government will receive no help, no
embrace, from Washington."
That, indeed, remains administration policy, State Department spokesman
Richard Boucher told reporters this week. "Our view remains the same, whichever
side is
threatening democracy," he said. "And that is that democratic institutions
in Venezuela and elsewhere need to be respected, and that any changes that
occur need to
be democratic and constitutional."
Staff writer Karen DeYoung contributed to this report.
© 2002