Vanessa Bauza

HAVANA · Wearing a flowing white dress and colorful beads, fortune teller Juana "la Cubana" Rios shuffles her cards and spreads them like a fan across the table when asked the question on many Cubans' minds: Will President Bush or Sen. John Kerry prevail in Tuesday's election?

"No doubt," she says with a wide grin after consulting the deck. "The cards tell me Bush will not win."

From Havana to Helsinki, the race for the White House has ignited unusually intense interest around the world with some leaders abandoning diplomatic protocol to express their preferences and offer endorsements for one candidate or another.

You don't need a crystal ball or Ouija board to know where Cuba stands.

"I want anyone except Bush," Rios, 62, says from her permanent spot on the edge of Old Havana's cathedral square. So do most Cubans.

Rarely a day passes when Cuba's state-run media doesn't pound Bush. Cuban leader Fidel Castro has called him everything from an incompetent dimwit to a paranoid fundamentalist.

But anti-Bush sentiment goes beyond mere propaganda. Many Cubans feel personally wronged by Bush's tough new measures that aim to stem the flow of dollars to Cuba by limiting Cuban-Americans' trips and other contacts -- from what items they can send in care packages to which relatives are entitled to receive them.

Cuba's Tourism Ministry expects trips by Americans and Cuban-Americans to drop by 30 percent this year, putting a dent in the island's top money making industry.

And Castro has blamed Bush's "economic aggression" for such unpopular moves as recent price hikes on consumer goods and the elimination of the U.S. dollar from circulation after more than a decade.

Still, despite all the anti-Bush rhetoric, Cuban officials have taken a cautious, wait-and-see approach to Kerry.

"First, one has to know what Kerry thinks and what he will do," Ricardo Alarcon, head of Cuba's parliament, said recently. "Given what he's said already, it seems like with him it would be more of the same."

Mindful that Cuban-Americans were crucial to Bush's 537-vote win in Florida in 2000, Kerry has tried to siphon off support from recent emigres who are upset by the tightened sanctions.

He has said he would favor a "major review of U.S. policy toward Cuba" and would like to see more Americans travel to Cuba, but would not unilaterally lift sanctions.

Soraya Castro, a researcher at the University of Havana's Center for Studies on the United States, said Bush and Kerry's "style may vary but the essence [of U.S. policy toward Cuba] will not change."

Still, she would rather give Kerry the benefit of the doubt than face four more years of Bush.

Kerry "is not committed to a policy of pre-emptive strikes; I think he would try to recover and listen to allies," said Castro, who is not related to the Cuban leader.

But not all Cubans favor Kerry.

At Havana's so-called "hot corner," an elegant, tree-shaded plaza where baseball fans gather daily to discuss games, players and recent trades, the U.S. election triggered varied opinions.

A construction worker, Benito Castillo, echoed many U.S. voters who feel swayed by their confidence in Bush's anti-terrorism credentials. "If I were American I would vote for Bush," Castillo said. "He has maintained a tight grip on security."

Daike Charlot Perez, 19, a bakery worker, disagreed, scorning Bush's decision to go to war in Iraq. "Kerry hasn't committed so many atrocities and so many murders," he said.

Engineer Idelgarde Antheno, 57, said he hoped Kerry would follow in the footsteps of other Democratic presidents like Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, who held more moderate positions on Cuba and "didn't interfere in internal issues."

Henry Peña, 36, backed Bush's tighter sanctions, despite their economic impact on ordinary Cubans.

"All people should sacrifice something for freedom," he said.

For Laura Pollan, whose husband, dissident Hector Maseda, is serving a 20-year prison sentence, choosing sides is not easy.

She thinks a Kerry victory could diminish U.S.-Cuba tensions and put Castro more at ease, possibly benefiting her husband and scores of other political prisoners.

On the other hand, Pollan says Bush is the first president to tighten the screws on Castro and push for a democratic transition.

"If Kerry is elected we as [dissidents'] wives and ordinary citizens will be benefited because Democrats take a softer line and therefore Mr. Castro will relax," Pollan said from her central Havana home. "In the general sense, for the democratization of Cuba, Bush is more favorable."

How will Cuba be affected? Pollan is waiting for Tuesday to find out. "Many people are … saying you have to wait until November and see what happens," she said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report. Vanessa Bauzá

can be reached at vmbauza1@yahoo.com

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