LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

Question: President Bush announced measures aimed at hastening the fall of Cuban President Fidel Castro and his government. Do you believe the new measures will have a substantial impact on Cuba?

Answer from William Rogers, a senior partner at Arnold & Porter and former U.S. assistant secretary of state for inter-American affairs: The Bush administration has tightened up the Cuba sanctions once again. And once again it claims that this latest mean-spiritedness will help ''liberate the Cuban people from tyranny.'' The suggestion that democracy will come the sooner if the U.S. slashes family visits and private remittances is one of the more laughable foreign policy canards. The suffering people of Cuba will suffer that much more; the latest steps will have zero effect on the mechanisms of repression in Cuba itself. Cuba's security services will be not a whit weaker or a penny poorer. The administration cannot be so blind as not to know this. But it reckons the electoral equations in Florida more carefully.

From Dennis Hays, managing director in the Global & Government Affairs Practice at Tew Cardenas LLP: It worked in Serbia, Eastern Europe and South Africa. Why would anyone think it wouldn't work in Cuba? It is, of course, an aggressive program of support for democracy activists, trade unionists, students, professionals and others interested in standing up to a repressive regime. And the reaction of the Castro regime to these proposals? Near hysteria. They understand, even if not everyone in the U.S. does, that when you break the monopoly dictatorships hold over information, employment and civil society, ever increasing numbers of citizens begin to question the status quo and demand their dignity and rights.

From Dan Erikson, director for Caribbean Projects at the Inter-American Dialogue: Fidel Castro is probably disappointed that the Bush administration's report was not able to come up with something more creative. Although the Cuban newspaper Granma dutifully declared that the U.S. had imposed ''brutal economic and political measures'' against Cuba, the White House proposals consisted mainly of a smorgasbord of warmed-over ideas that have either been ineffective, counterproductive or ignored in practice. Given Cuba's rocky relations with several Latin American countries, the region's negative reaction to the White House announcement provided a rare opportunity for consensus between Castro and his erstwhile allies.

From Beatrice Rangel, a member of the Latin America Advisor board and a senior advisor to the chairman at the Cisneros Group of Companies: Should there be any impact at all, it will most likely be in the U.S. The evenly divided electorate in the U.S. makes minorities very important, particularly in swing states. The measures will undoubtedly provoke a response from Castro, who will certainly consider in his reaction its impact upon the Cuban-American community. The Cuban government already announced that it is raising prices of dollar-denominated products. This will make life harder for those who thrive on the remittances sent by relatives in the U.S. but will hardly make life more difficult for Castro.

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