BY LESLEY CLARK

With his popularity flagging, President Bush will bask Friday in the warm embrace of Cuban-American leaders in Miami.

After eight years in office, Bush remains perennially popular among hard-line exiles for his steadfast refusal to blink when it comes to relaxing U.S. policy toward Cuba -- and his championing of the island's dissidents.

''The fact that today you have the most active, widespread civil society in Cuba in the last 50 years is a testament to his commitment to Cuba,'' said Mauricio Claver-Carone, a leading pro-embargo lobbyist referring to what he said was the flowering of dissident groups. ``He has sought to make their plight known to the world.''

Yet Democrats suggest it was Bush's decision in 2004 to further tighten sanctions against the island that has given them what may be their best shot ever at unseating Miami's three Cuban-American members of Congress. For the first time, they say, there is an opportunity to compete for votes among an electorate once considered diehard Republican.

''He opened the door,'' said Democratic strategist Jeff Garcia, who contends that the restrictions capping remittances and visits to the island have turned off Cuban Americans who want to visit family more frequently. ``He completely misjudged and misread the community that had been solidly behind him, and that support has eroded every day since.''

At a White House Hispanic Heritage event Thursday, Bush thanked ''those who are working to hasten the day of freedom for the Cuban people.'' He's expected to avoid public politicking Friday on what may mark his last visit to Miami as president. After a Coral Gables fundraiser, Bush is to meet privately with Cuban-American leaders.

A senior administration official said Thursday that Bush ''will talk about where things are with Cuba and what the president has done.'' The official said Bush is also interested to ``hear from individuals in his time remaining, what we should be thinking about.''

Some have lobbied to temporarily lift the 2004 restrictions to allow Cubans to travel to the island to help those affected by hurricanes, but the official said no changes are expected.

One Bush fan -- radio and TV host Ninoska Perez Castellon of the Cuban Liberty Council -- noted Thursday that Bush's 2006 visit to Miami coincided with Fidel Castro's announcement he'd turn the government over to his brother, Raul.

''Everybody had hoped that under George Bush we would celebrate a free Cuba,'' she said. ``He has remained faithful to his friends. The last four years he hasn't needed a vote, but he's been consistent. It's a matter of principle for him.''

Joe Garcia, former executive director of the Cuban American National Foundation and Republican Rep. Mario Diaz Balart's election opponent, noted many aid-to-Cuba programs including Miami-based Radio and TV Marti have been the subject of critical reports and accused of mismanagement and political cronyism.

Garcia says it was Bush who politicized Cuba policy by tightening the restrictions just before the 2004 election to please ardent exiles.

'Before George W. Bush, Democrats' and Republicans' positions mirrored each other on Cuba policy,'' Garcia said.

The travel restrictions are a point of contention in this year's presidential and congressional elections. Both sides support the embargo, but Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, along with Garcia and congressional candidates Raul Martinez and Annette Taddeo, have called for the restrictions to be lifted.

Republican John McCain and the congressional incumbents, Reps. Mario and Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, oppose easing the restrictions. They note there is Democratic support for their stance, including New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez and Rep. Albio Sires.

Still, analysts say the November election could serve as a referendum on Bush's policies. Polls put Garcia and Martinez within striking distance of the Republicans, though both incumbents appear to have comfortable margins among Cuban-American voters.

Jeff Garcia suggests the margin is shrinking and that Obama could benefit.

''They're still winning among Cuban Americans, yes,'' Garcia said. ``But if not by the same huge margins, that's a tremendous problem.

''If these restrictions weren't there, there wouldn't be this opportunity,'' said Garcia, who helped recruit Martinez to face Diaz-Balart. ``They've created this wedge argument that now favors the other side.''

But state Rep. David Rivera, a Miami Republican, said he's heard it all before.

''They're deluding themselves if they think there's going to be any change,'' Rivera said. ``Cubans vote on Cuba. And they don't distinguish on travel restrictions and the embargo.''