Politics: With reelection on their minds, they know the 2000 Florida tally shows that even a small percentage of voters can be crucial.

By JOHN-THOR DAHLBURG
TIMES STAFF WRITER

MIAMI -- If President Bush's hard-line, anti-Castro speech this week was a naked play for the votes of Cuban Americans, a key Florida constituency, he
succeeded splendidly--at least among the customers at Juan Sosa Jr.'s cigar store Tuesday.

"People are talking about Monday's speech, and they're all with Bush," said Sosa, owner of Aroma Cigars in the heart of Miami's Cuban American exile community.
"He's against lifting the embargo ... and that's a good thing for the Cuban people. This should boost the popularity of the president and of his brother," Republican
Gov. Jeb Bush, who is seeking reelection in November.

In the autumn of 2000, all of America watched as the presidential race was decided by a razor-thin margin in the Sunshine State, a victory still disputed by many
Democrats. According to some political observers, that explains the assiduous attention paid this week by the Bush brothers to Cuban Americans, who make up an
estimated 8% of Florida's electorate. On Monday, President Bush staunchly rejected mounting pressure from Congress to ease up on Fidel Castro's one-party
regime, and he flew to Miami to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with his brother during ceremonies honoring Cuban Independence Day.

"To me, this had nothing to do with foreign policy and everything to do with domestic policy," said Terry McCoy, a professor of Latin American studies and political
science at the University of Florida in Gainesville. "It was telling the Cuban Americans that they are important and that this president is with them."

It was also an opportunity for Jeb Bush, who wants to become the first Republican governor in Florida to win a second term, to mix with the Cuban American
community. He hopscotched the airwaves Monday from one Spanish-language radio and TV station to another, and addressed the Independence Day ceremony in
Spanish.

"He's practically Cuban, just taller," state Rep. Marco Rubio, a Miami Republican, told the Miami Herald.

Presidential exit polls indicated that 80% of Cuban Americans voted for George W. Bush over the Democratic candidate, then-Vice President Al Gore, in
November 2000. But with the final tally of the Republican victory a scant 537 votes, the lesson was clear: Florida, and any segment of its voters, shouldn't be taken
for granted.

The Bush brothers' stand on Cuba policy likely won't have any measurable influence on Floridians of other ethnic backgrounds, McCoy said. But the last presidential
election showed how in this state, "a relatively small percentage of votes, Cuban American or others, could make a difference in the outcome.

"That gives the Cuban American vote even more leverage," McCoy said.

Since the 1960s, Cuban exiles and their offspring have been a dependable vote bank for Republicans, but demographic changes in Florida make hanging onto their
allegiance even more crucial. Advisors to President Bush, mapping strategy for the 2004 campaign, are worried that the growing population of non-Cuban Latinos in
Florida--including Puerto Ricans and Mexican Americans--might tilt the electoral balance against them.

Those other Latinos, whose numbers are growing much faster than the Cubans', historically have tended to vote Democratic. In 1990, Cubans constituted 43% of all
Latinos in Florida, but their share has shrunk to 31%. That makes retaining the loyalty of Cuban American voters even more of a priority for the GOP, presidential
advisors say.

Since Bush has been in the White House, he has visited Florida nine times. He also appointed the first Cuban American Cabinet member, Housing Secretary Mel
Martinez. One newspaper columnist disapprovingly judged the president's actions this week to be only the latest attempt at currying political favor here.

"It was a replay of countless speeches and proposals by American politicians eager for Cuban votes," Max J. Castro wrote in the Miami Herald. "It was a speech full
of platitudes, kudos for Cuban Americans and tough talk against Castro, but lacking any real substance except more of the same failed, hard-line policy."

Republican officials vigorously disagreed Tuesday. "What President Bush did was clear up absolutely any confusion as to where his administration is in regards to the
Cuban embargo and Cuban relations," said Towson Fraser, press secretary for the Florida Republican Party in Tallahassee.

Jeb Bush's probable Democratic opponent in the fall is former Atty. Gen. Janet Reno, who, while a Miamian, is loathed by many Cuban Americans because of her
role in sending a young Cuban shipwreck survivor back to the island. The Miami relatives of the boy, Elian Gonzalez, had choice seats at the Independence Day rally
addressed by the Bushes.

"You wouldn't think Jeb Bush would be concerned about the Cuban American vote," McCoy said. "But he's not leaving anything to chance."

Although the growing ranks of other groups may threaten Cuban Americans' clout at the ballot box, they remain Florida's wealthiest and most influential Latino
community by far. As a token of that status, Armando Codina, Jeb Bush's former Miami real estate partner, threw a private, $25,000-a-couple fund-raising dinner
Monday for the Republican Party of Florida that raked in a reported $2 million.

"Basically, [President Bush's visit] brought an opportunity to raise money for his brother's campaign, and that's the impact you'll see politically," said Ryan Banfill,
communications director for the Florida Democratic Party. "But when it comes to basic policy statements, I don't think he broke new ground.... The speech he gave
was what we saw before: Cuba si, Castro no."

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