Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo says a 'mafia' is out to get him. Even if that isn't true, some allegations against him have been bizarre.

BY LUCIEN O. CHAUVIN
Special to The Herald

LIMA - Whether or not a nefarious ''mafia'' is really out to topple President Alejandro Toledo, a bizarre string of recent scandals and incidents is once again threatening his almost perennially crisis-struck presidency.

The latest twist in Peru's presidential saga was the publication last week of photographs -- regarded by most analysts as frauds -- of a naked Toledo sprawled across a bed with an unidentified woman.

Toledo and his aides immediately blamed the photos on the ''mafia'' that he has long insisted is bent on toppling him -- followers of former President Alberto Fujimori and spy chief Vladimiro Montesinos, who ran Peru with a strong and corrupt hand in the 1990s. Montesinos is now in prison here; Fujimori is in exile in Japan.

RESPONSIBILITY

But even neutral analysts say an inept Toledo has dug much of his own hole, resulting in his single-digit support in recent public opinion polls.

''Of course there are people linked to Montesinos actively working to destabilize the administration, but the president cannot blame everything on them. The government needs to respond by doing intelligent things, and we are not seeing this,'' said Luis Nunes, Peru director for the U.S. National Democratic Institute.

The recent scandals and allegations against Toledo range from the ridiculous to the serious:

• Some media outlets have published copies of two credit card receipts from 1998 showing Toledo bought some $8,000 worth of gifts at a pharmacy -- saying that this supports past allegations that Toledo was involved in a drug-fueled orgy at the time. The two receipts do not appear to be signed by the same hand, and there was no explanation of where the receipts have been for the past seven years.

• The newspapers that published the alleged photos of Toledo never explained how they got them. Toledo has always insisted that at one point in the late 1990s he was drugged by Fujimori agents and perhaps photographed.

''When I turn on the television, I'm not sure I'm watching the news or a horror film,'' Nunes said.

But other events have been more serious.

• A strange New Year's Day rebellion by retired Army Maj. Antauro Humala and 150 followers in a remote Andean town, demanding Toledo's resignation, left six dead and forced the resignation of Interior Minister Javier Reategui, who oversees the National Police.

• Toledo's sister Margaret was put under house arrest on charges of organizing the ''forgery factory'' that churned out more than 1.2 million signatures needed to register his political party for the 2000 presidential race against Fujimori. The 18 million names submitted by all the parties were one-third more than the 12 million registered voters. The president announced on thursday that he would testify before the congressional commission investigating the signature fraud.

• Cesar Almeyda, Toledo's former personal lawyer and head of the country's intelligence service, is under investigation for allegedly accepting a $2 million bribe from Colombia's Bavaria brewery to buy Peru's only beer company. The main witness in the case claims Toledo got a cut from the bribe, which Bavaria denies paying and Almeyda denies receiving.

Combine all these problems and it's easy to understand why only one in 10 Peruvians approve of Toledo and 59 percent believe he should either resign or be impeached, according to recent surveys by Apoyo, the country's top polling firm.

Political scientist Alberto Adrianzen says this newest barrage of scandals has indeed revived the call for Toledo to leave office before his five-year term ends in 2006.

''The issue of vacating the presidency has resurfaced because there is no faith in public institutions. It is not just the executive. Support for Congress and the judiciary is also in single digits,'' Adrianzen said.

SURVIVAL LIKELY

But Nunes says that Toledo will likely survive, even though the final 18 months of his administration are likely to be more of the same, with the administration spending its time fighting fires instead of governing effectively.

''The country would achieve nothing by moving up the elections by a few months. Removing Toledo would do nothing to change the situation, except hurt the economy,'' he said.

In fact, shielding the economy from all the political crises has been the administration's major accomplishment. The economy has expanded since Toledo took office, up to 8 percent a year. Per capita income has increased from $2,100 to $2,600 under his watch, and the country's trade surplus is at an historic high.

And that may well be the oddest aspect of Toledo's governance -- that a president who has notched impressive economic achievements could be saved from ouster merely because he has only 18 months left in office.