By JUAN FORERO
 
LIMA, Peru, Feb. 15 — With his embattled presidency in danger of collapse, Alejandro Toledo will turn on Monday to a tactic he has used to resuscitate his poor political fortunes and name a new cabinet.

Since his election in 2001, President Toledo has gone through three major cabinet shakeups and four prime ministers, shuffling his 16-member cabinet when his government has hit its most difficult stretches.

The idea has been to add a blast of "oxygen," as Peruvians put it, and restore confidence — qualities Mr. Toledo's administration has never needed more than now, with his popularity rating at just 7 percent following a string of scandals and personal gaffes.

But political analysts and some former cabinet members say that Mr. Toledo's new cabinet could well be his last, a troubling sign in the politically tumultuous Andes.

In Bolivia, Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada resigned as president in October in the face of violent protests. In Venezuela, the political situation remains tense as opponents of President Hugo Chavez push for a referendum that they hope will lead to his ouster.

Analysts here say the Toledo administration's revolving door has conveyed weakness and a lack of direction in the presidency rather than the firm hand the president wants to convey.

"The president is disconnected from reality," Federico Salazar, a columnist in the respected Lima daily, Peru 21, wrote on Saturday. "So much so that he believes a new cabinet can resolve the crisis."

Several influential politicians, as well as the country's leading newspaper, are pushing for Mr. Toledo to take a subordinate role and give broad new powers to his prime minister, Carlos Ferrero.

They say Mr. Toledo should also name an independent cabinet, its members free to choose their own teams rather than guarantee employment to governing party officials. The president is expected to name as many as nine new ministers to such key ministries as economy and finance, justice, education and agriculture.

"This is the only way there will be stability and allow the president to finish up his term," Fernando Villarán , a former labor minister, said in an interview. "If it does not happen, then the cabinet will be fragile, and he will continue in this free fall."

Mr. Toledo has not publicly responded to the admonitions. But politicians, former cabinet ministers and political analysts say the president needs to "step aside" and cede power to the cabinet if his government is to finish out its five-year term.

"Do a great duty and build a good and strong cabinet, but let it work," Alan García, a former president and Mr. Toledo's central political foe, said in a fiery speech on Friday night. "Change, or the Peruvian people will surely change the government."

Polls show that Mr. Toledo has lost credibility among Peruvians because of his often ostentatious life style that has alienated those who once saw his government as reformist. Many Peruvians also view him as incapable, disorganized and deceitful.

The president has come under particularly harsh criticism since accusations surfaced in January that a former adviser, César Almeyda, had conspired in 2001 with an army general to bribe judges investigating corruption. The revelations, made public in an audiotape of the conversation, were a blow to a president who won election promising to strengthen state institutions weakened under President Alberto Fujimori, who ran a quasi-dictatorship until he resigned in 2000.

In the latest opinion poll in Lima, where one of five Peruvians live, 44 percent believe Toledo should resign or be removed from office and 78 percent believe that Mr. Toledo will not change his governing style.

Peru's economy still remains one of Latin America's strongest, posting a 4 percent growth rate last year. The country has lately been free of anti-government marches.

But much of the economic growth has been in mining, which provides few jobs and largely benefits foreign investors.

Next week, the situation could turn for the worse when coca farmers, who are at odds with the government's efforts to eradicate the crop, plan to protest in Lima. In March, Peru's largest labor confederation is scheduling a large anti-government protest.

Four former ministers said in interviews that this cabinet shuffle has been particularly difficult because many prospective members have no interest in serving a government that could throw them out in the next crisis.

In the latest reorganization in December, Mr. Toledo, under pressure from old-line politicians in the governing party, got rid of Peru's first-ever female prime minister, Beatriz Merino, whose rising popularity and efforts to reform the tax system and government bureaucracy made her many enemies.

"The sensation now is that in this government you cannot do anything," said Cecilia Blondet, the former minister of Women and Social Development. "There is a sense that it is not interested in reforming the state or changing the country, bur rather in finding jobs for its own people."

Former ministers and political analysts say Mr. Toledo has too easily discarded able ministers who were trying to make important reforms in such key areas as the state bureaucracy, the police, the educational system and the Defense Ministry, all traditional hotbeds of patronage.

"The president does not make decisions to meet objectives," said Nicolás Lynch, a sociology professor and former education minister. "He makes decisions based on friendships and the mood of the moment."