The New York Times
September 15, 1998
 
Mexican Prices Feel the Squeeze of World Economic Trouble
 
 

          By SAM DILLON

                MEXICO CITY -- The manager of a store selling imported kitchen utensils says many
                customers walk out when they see his prices.

          Some auto repair shops report that car owners are not retrieving their repaired vehicles, apparently
          because as Mexico's economic difficulties grow, they cannot scrape together the money.

          Yet a salesman at a Mexico City Chevrolet dealership says that he is still selling about 20 new cars a
          month, the same as usual, despite soaring interest rates.

          "We don't feel like we're in crisis here," the auto salesman, Roberto Aviles, said.

          In recent weeks, the peso has lost 18 percent of its value, interest rates have soared above 40
          percent, and many companies on the Mexico City stock exchange, have lost more than half their
          value. But the Mexican economy was growing at such a robust rate before the financial storm hit that
          so far, signs that the market turbulence is contaminating the broad economy remain anecdotal and
          mixed.

          Figures for August, when the devaluation of the Russian ruble heightened an investor stampede from
          emerging markets, will only be released here next month. Analysts expect to see signs of a downturn
          then, but growth was so strong in 1997, at 7 percent, and during the first half of this year, at 5.4
          percent, that many believe Mexico will still see 4 percent growth or more in 1998.

          "Everybody's expecting a slowdown, but we can't see strong, unequivocal signs yet," said Jonathan
          Heath, an independent economics consultant here. "A train that is going 500 miles an hour doesn't
          stop instantly."

          Monday the stock market had a good day, with the main index rising 3.64 percent. The peso traded
          here late Monday around 10.4 to the dollar, improved over Friday.

          Elsewhere in Latin America, Venezuela's main market index rose 1.64 percent. Stocks in Chile were
          down 1.2 percent. In Argentina, the benchmark Merval index rose 5.45 percent. Brazilian shares
          were stronger still, soaring 7.79 percent.

          Global economic troubles hit Mexico early in the year, when world prices for basic commodities
          including metals, grain and oil began to plunge. One Mexican steel company laid off 3,000 workers
          in July. And since oil exports make up about a third of its revenue, the government has cut the 1998
          budget three times, slicing a total of $2.8 billion from an original $58.4 billion.

          The government cuts have hurt hundreds of companies whose prosperity depends on public
          contracts, especially heavy construction companies, said Francisco Caballero, director of the Center
          for Economic Studies, which examines 116 manufacturing sectors.

          And since late last month, when the markets plummeted, the peso accelerated its slide and interest
          rates began to soar, the financial turbulence has translated into falling demand in more areas of
          business, although most Mexican companies still have not been affected, Caballero said.

          "Domestic demand is dropping, but the majority of our industries still haven't felt it yet," he said.

          Two that have felt the turbulence have been the domestic construction and auto industries, which are
          particularly sensitive to interest rate shifts.

          With rates above 40 percent, banks have simply stopped extending mortgages. "It's a good
          assumption that housing will be one of the industries affected in the short run," said Gordon Lee, a
          construction analyst with Deutsche Bank Securities. But investors have exaggerated the degree to
          which the largest builders will be hurt, he said.

          For instance, share prices of Casas Geo, Mexico's largest builder of residential housing, have fallen
          77 percent this year. Yet there seems to be little reason for such pessimism, since about 85 percent
          of the company's clients are low-income buyers who receive government financing that is not pegged
          to commercial interest rates, Lee said.

          Domestic auto sales also seem likely to suffer because most, if not all, of dealers have in recent days
          canceled generous financing programs that helped spur a boom this year.

          And there are other anecdotal signs of a downturn. Andres Gonzalez, an analyst with the Spicer
          division of the auto parts giant DESC, said that in the last two months, many independent repair
          shops had fallen behind in paying parts suppliers because car owners who delivered vehicles for
          repair were not picking them up, apparently suddenly short of money.

          "That's giving us a lot of problems," Gonzalez said.

          Pedro Moreno, a shopkeeper who sells glass kitchenware, much of it imported, said his store had
          enjoyed strong sales until the world financial crisis reached Mexico. With the slide in the peso's
          value, most of his prices have sharply risen.

          "Now they just look at our prices and go out the door," Moreno said.