By SAM DILLON
MEXICO CITY -- The manager of a store selling imported kitchen utensils
says many
customers walk out when they see his prices.
Some auto repair shops report that car owners are not retrieving their
repaired vehicles, apparently
because as Mexico's economic difficulties grow, they cannot scrape together
the money.
Yet a salesman at a Mexico City Chevrolet dealership says that he is still
selling about 20 new cars a
month, the same as usual, despite soaring interest rates.
"We don't feel like we're in crisis here," the auto salesman, Roberto Aviles, said.
In recent weeks, the peso has lost 18 percent of its value, interest rates
have soared above 40
percent, and many companies on the Mexico City stock exchange, have lost
more than half their
value. But the Mexican economy was growing at such a robust rate before
the financial storm hit that
so far, signs that the market turbulence is contaminating the broad economy
remain anecdotal and
mixed.
Figures for August, when the devaluation of the Russian ruble heightened
an investor stampede from
emerging markets, will only be released here next month. Analysts expect
to see signs of a downturn
then, but growth was so strong in 1997, at 7 percent, and during the first
half of this year, at 5.4
percent, that many believe Mexico will still see 4 percent growth or more
in 1998.
"Everybody's expecting a slowdown, but we can't see strong, unequivocal
signs yet," said Jonathan
Heath, an independent economics consultant here. "A train that is going
500 miles an hour doesn't
stop instantly."
Monday the stock market had a good day, with the main index rising 3.64
percent. The peso traded
here late Monday around 10.4 to the dollar, improved over Friday.
Elsewhere in Latin America, Venezuela's main market index rose 1.64 percent.
Stocks in Chile were
down 1.2 percent. In Argentina, the benchmark Merval index rose 5.45 percent.
Brazilian shares
were stronger still, soaring 7.79 percent.
Global economic troubles hit Mexico early in the year, when world prices
for basic commodities
including metals, grain and oil began to plunge. One Mexican steel company
laid off 3,000 workers
in July. And since oil exports make up about a third of its revenue, the
government has cut the 1998
budget three times, slicing a total of $2.8 billion from an original $58.4
billion.
The government cuts have hurt hundreds of companies whose prosperity depends
on public
contracts, especially heavy construction companies, said Francisco Caballero,
director of the Center
for Economic Studies, which examines 116 manufacturing sectors.
And since late last month, when the markets plummeted, the peso accelerated
its slide and interest
rates began to soar, the financial turbulence has translated into falling
demand in more areas of
business, although most Mexican companies still have not been affected,
Caballero said.
"Domestic demand is dropping, but the majority of our industries still haven't felt it yet," he said.
Two that have felt the turbulence have been the domestic construction and
auto industries, which are
particularly sensitive to interest rate shifts.
With rates above 40 percent, banks have simply stopped extending mortgages.
"It's a good
assumption that housing will be one of the industries affected in the short
run," said Gordon Lee, a
construction analyst with Deutsche Bank Securities. But investors have
exaggerated the degree to
which the largest builders will be hurt, he said.
For instance, share prices of Casas Geo, Mexico's largest builder of residential
housing, have fallen
77 percent this year. Yet there seems to be little reason for such pessimism,
since about 85 percent
of the company's clients are low-income buyers who receive government financing
that is not pegged
to commercial interest rates, Lee said.
Domestic auto sales also seem likely to suffer because most, if not all,
of dealers have in recent days
canceled generous financing programs that helped spur a boom this year.
And there are other anecdotal signs of a downturn. Andres Gonzalez, an
analyst with the Spicer
division of the auto parts giant DESC, said that in the last two months,
many independent repair
shops had fallen behind in paying parts suppliers because car owners who
delivered vehicles for
repair were not picking them up, apparently suddenly short of money.
"That's giving us a lot of problems," Gonzalez said.
Pedro Moreno, a shopkeeper who sells glass kitchenware, much of it imported,
said his store had
enjoyed strong sales until the world financial crisis reached Mexico. With
the slide in the peso's
value, most of his prices have sharply risen.
"Now they just look at our prices and go out the door," Moreno said.