The Miami Herald
January 29, 2001

Mexico's Zapatista rebels outmaneuvering Fox

Leaders plan high-profile national tour

 BY JANE BUSSEY

 MEXICO CITY -- Rebel leader Subcomandante Marcos -- who will storm the
 capital in a whirlwind media splash in a matter of weeks -- once again has the last
 word on his newest adversary, the government of President Vicente Fox.

 ``If you are going to arrest us, we ask that you put us in the high-security (ha!)
 Puente Grande Penitentiary,'' Marcos wrote in a weekend letter outlining the rebel
 contingent's itinerary.

 ``I say this because at some point we might have a hankering to go out and eat
 tortas ahogadas [sandwiches in chile sauce] in Guadalajara,'' Marcos said in a
 dig at a recent escape from the prison. A major Mexican drug kingpin, Joaquín
 ``El Chapo'' Guzmán, broke out on Jan. 19, deeply embarrassing the Fox
 government.

 In either a major misstep or a masterful stroke, Fox had appeared to embrace the
 announcement by the leader of the Zapatista National Liberation Army to leave
 the safe harbor of Chiapas and march on the capital. During his presidential
 campaign last year, Fox repeatedly claimed he could break the stalemate with
 the Zapatista rebels ``in 15 minutes.''

 But now, some critics charge that the charismatic Fox has been outmaneuvered
 early in his administration by the equally photogenic and media-savvy Marcos.

 With pictures of masked Marcos dominating the media, teenagers clamoring to
 see him and other opposition groups lining up in support, a furious debate has
 broken out among the captains of industry and finance, Mexico's political
 factions, the Catholic Church hierarchy and political commentators about the
 wisdom of the unleashing the rebel forces on the country. There are fears that the
 situation could provoke violence, although the 19 men and five women who will
 stage the 16-day tour of 11 states and the Federal District are not considered an
 armed threat.

 ``I am not sitting down with masked men,'' grumbled Ricardo García Cervantes, a
 member of Fox's own National Action Party and head of the lower house of
 Congress. ``I will not lend myself to a ridiculous situation, a mockery or a wild
 bash.''

 Political commentators have outlined how in two separate meetings with
 legislators and professors of the Colegio de México, Fox has talked at length
 about the problem of the Zapatistas in Chiapas. Thegreatest concern is that Fox
 lacks a real strategy.

 ``We don't know if the administration is counting on [the support of] public
 opinion,'' said Alberto Fernández, president of the Business Leaders
 Confederation. ``But if that is the case, this situation threatens to get out of hand.''

 Marcos is not leaving the Chiapas highlands to negotiate surrendering weapons
 but to press Congress to pass a series of laws that will extend constitutional
 recognition to indigenous rights and culture. There are no ground rules set for
 restarting long-abandoned negotiations.

 Last week, news photos showed Fox's commissioner of peace, National Action
 stalwart Luis H. Alvarez, going to remote Chiapas communities in a fruitless effort
 to meet with the Zapatistas.

 Even a continuation of thestalemate is a victory for Marcos because of the lift he
 is receiving in the news.

 On the other hand, if Fox is able to negotiate an end to the Chiapas problem, it
 would hand him a major victory on one of his central campaign promises.

 In one sign of how serious the issue has become, during
 Even a continuation of the stalemate is a victory for Marcos.

 last week's meeting of the world's corporate and political elite at the World
 Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the first question from the forum's
 president, Klaus Schwab, to Fox was about the Zapatista situation.

 Fox insisted that investors should not be concerned about the situation, adding
 that a solution to the rebel problem was urgent.

 The ragtag guerrilla band, taking their name from martyred revolutionary hero
 Emiliano Zapata, launched an attack on army posts in Chiapas on New Year's
 Eve 1993. The attack was timed to coincide with Mexico's entry into the North
 American Free Trade Agreement with the United States and Canada. The
 Zapatistas claimed the pact spelled the extermination of Mexican indigenous
 groups. Although open armed conflict has been avoided for five years, two
 presidents have failed to negotiate a solution with the rebels.

 The masked Marcos -- who in another life was Rafael Guillén, an instructor of
 communications theory at the Metropolitan Autonomous University -- captured the
 hearts and minds of Mexicans and international supporters.

 Militarily, the Zapatistas present no threat. But the public would not stomach a
 military solution, because even the government recognizes that indigenous groups
 have been treated unjustly and consigned to poverty and marginalization in
 southern Mexico.

 More significant than the digs in Marcos' latest missive was the open challenge
 as he announced he was adding two states and five days to the tour.

 The Zapatista excursion will now take 16 days, from Feb. 24 to March 11, winding
 through 11 southern and central states before reaching the Federal District.