Mexico's Credit Rating Is Raised to Investment Quality by Moody's
By JULIA PRESTON
n a surprisingly broad endorsement of Mexico's economic strength
and financial management, Moody's Investors Service raised the
country's credit
rating today to investment grade for the first time.
The announcement
was a powerful vindication of President Ernesto
Zedillo's efforts
to convince investors that Mexico will make it through
national elections
this year without the kind of economic disaster that has
marred every
presidential turnover for the last two decades.
"It's a signal
that allows the investor to say, I can assume that the overall
economic context
is a sound one," said Finance Minister José Angel
Gurría
Treviño.
With the upgrading
from the junk-bond category, Moody's moved
Mexico into
the league of countries that present a very low risk of failing
to pay their
debts. Now the government and many private Mexican
corporations
will have access to a wider range of financing at lower rates.
The new rating
clears the way for many large institutions in the United
States to buy
Mexican bonds, which they were barred from doing
without the
investment grade status.
Moody's pointed
to Mexico's "dynamic export sector" and successful
integration
with the United States economy since the 1994 North
American Free
Trade Agreement. Because Mexico's foreign debt is
clearly manageable,
Moody's said, "a slowdown in the U.S. economy
should not be
seriously disruptive."
The agency was
also unusually optimistic about the prospects for stability
through the
balloting on July 2 and the handing over of power Dec. 1.
"The widespread
consensus on the importance of sound financial policies
combined with
a vibrant multiparty democracy provides additional
support to continued
fiscal discipline," Moody's said.
Mr. Zedillo,
a Yale-trained economist, has focused economic policy for
the last year
on taking Mexico through the end of his term without a
devastating
peso crash like the one that he faced in his first days in office.
While foreign
reserves stand at $31 billion, the country has already
refinanced the
foreign debt scheduled to come due this year, and faces
"very comfortable"
repayments next year, Mr. Gurría said.
Moody's decision
immediately began to push interest rates down. The
rate on the
benchmark 28-day Mexican treasury bonds dropped to
13.95 percent,
the lowest since the period before the crisis began in
December 1994.
As recently as September 1998, in the middle of a
crisis created
by turmoil in Russia and Brazil, the rate had soared to
41.33 percent.