Analysis |

Even though the U.S. military could handle another mission, a lack of political will probably means American troops will stay out of Haiti.

BY DREW BROWN

WASHINGTON - In spite of President Bush's suggestion Wednesday that the United States would support an international security force in Haiti, it was not clear what role the United States would play in any peacekeeping.

Secretary of State Colin Powell on Feb. 14 ruled out the use of U.S. forces in Haiti, and White House spokesman Scott McClellan on Wednesday confirmed that the administration still held that position.

Even with 120,000 U.S. troops in Iraq and 10,000 in Afghanistan, the United States could pull off another intervention, military experts said, largely because Aristide abolished Haitis army after he was restored to power in 1994, so large, organized opposition would be practically nonexistent. Far fewer troops would be needed than the 20,000 U.S. soldiers who intervened in Haiti 10 years ago.

But the overall mission would be murky. Few U.S. officials and lawmakers are eager to be seen as propping up Aristide, whose corrupt government and authoritarian style has alienated many earlier supporters in the United States, and there is also concern about the rebels, who include former Haitian military officials linked to human-rights violations before 1994.

''Its not too clear whose side youd be on or what the exit strategy would be,'' said John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, a military and intelligence analysis group.

Rep. Mark Foley, R-Fla., a longtime Haiti watcher, heard testimony Wednesday from Roger Noriega, a top State Department official who participated in last weeks negotiations with Aristide and his political opponents.

Foley described U.S. options in Haiti as ''somewhat limited'' and said administration officials were pursuing a ''prudent'' strategy in striving for an international solution.

``The administration has been trying not to be seen as the aggressor here, in that were not going to prop up Aristide or intervene.''

France, Haitis former colonial ruler, issued a plan that includes sending a civilian peacekeeping force to restore order and helping prepare for presidential elections under a transitional government.

White House officials said they had no immediate response to the French plan. Meanwhile, military analysts said it is likely any U.S. role will be behind the scenes.

Foley said even as the Bush administration called for a solution that would keep Aristide in power until his term ends, theres a resignation among U.S. officials that the rebellion has spelled an end to his presidency. And that means it is likely the U.S. must get involved somehow.

''We cant just stabilize, run and say youre on your own again,'' he said. ``They need help with crops. They need help with infrastructure. Our involvement has to be more than as a stabilizing force.''