A new Cuban exile group enters the debate on Cuba's future with a poll showing that Cuban Americans retain hard-line attitudes on Fidel Castro.

BY OSCAR CORRAL

As controversy over U.S. policy toward Cuba intensifies, two wealthy, conservative Cuban exiles have formed a new group and conducted a poll to help influence the debate.

Miami car dealer Gus Machado and Leopoldo Fernandez Pujals, a Cuban exile who built a pizza empire in Spain, have enlisted the aid of Washington lawyer Mauricio Claver-Carone to represent their group, Cuba Democracy Advocates.

Its first major action: hiring Miami-based Campaign Data Inc. to survey 600 Cuban-American registered voters in Miami-Dade and Broward counties.

Their poll, conducted from Feb. 16-24 and released Wednesday, shows that Cuban Americans maintain hard-line attitudes toward Fidel Castro and want to continue the U.S. embargo.

It also found that there is little support for Cuban dissident Oswaldo Payá's Varela Project, and that many younger Cuban Americans -- nearly 46 percent of the respondents between 18 and 39 years old -- say the United States should take military action against Castro.

The margin of error was plus or minus three to five percentage points.

The poll's conclusions are at odds with those of similar polls conducted during the last two years that show Cuban Americans moving away from hard-line positions.

The survey's questions have drawn criticism. One independent polling expert said they were asked in an unbalanced way likely to draw a predetermined response.

DIFFERENT DIALOGUE

The group's leaders defend its methodology, saying they were only providing accurate information to participants.

''What's happening in the community is quite fascinating,'' said Claver-Carone, who is lobbying Congress full time for the group. ``It's a very interesting period where we are having a different kind of dialogue more directed at the future of Cuba.

``The Varela Project is part of the Miami debate, and part of a debate on a future transition in Cuba.''

The Varela Project, led by Payá, has focused on gathering tens of thousands of signatures on the island during the past two years to petition the Cuban government to respect human rights and allow basic civil liberties. It has been flatly rejected and condemned by the Cuban government.

Payá seeks change by targeting a loophole in the communist constitution that says the Cuban people can petition for change.

QUESTION ON VARELA

Pollsters asked respondents this question about Varela: ``The Varela Project accepts the continuation of the current Cuban constitution and the Communist Party as the only political party in Cuba. Knowing this, do you support the Varela Project?''

Most people, about 66 percent, said they do not support Varela, while only 16 percent said they support it. Nearly 18 percent said they had no opinion.

A separate poll conducted late last year for the Cuba Study Group showed very different results. In that poll, conducted by Sergio Bendixen, Cuban-American voters were asked simply, ``What is your opinion of the Varela Project?''

A majority of those respondents, about 59 percent, thought it was good, while 25 percent said it was bad.

The Cuba Study Group, which is also made up of prominent Cuban exiles, is a strong supporter of Payá and the Varela Project.

The independent expert asked by The Herald to review several of Cuba Democracy Advocates' questions said they were unbalanced.

''The very one-sided way in which the questions are asked really leads the respondent to an answer,'' said Mark Schulman, past president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. ``I can say that this particular survey is useless in determining attitudes toward Cuban policy.''

But Claver-Carone said the survey merely provided accurate information about Castro's Cuba that other polls did not.

Professor Dario Moreno of Florida International University, who wrote the poll questions with input from members of Cuba Democracy Advocates, said the Varela Project question ''is probably leading,'' but defended the questions and the results of the poll.

He said the group disclosed the wording of the questions so people can make up their own minds about its validity.

''To argue that there has been a change in attitudes in the Cuban-American community is really making a huge leap of faith,'' he said.

At a time when plans are being drawn up in both Washington and Miami for a post-Castro transition in Cuba, the Varela Project has become one of the most intensely debated efforts among exiles to bring about change in Cuba.

''My own sense is that there is enormous support for the Varela Project,'' said Carlos Saladrigas, chairman of the Cuba Study Group. ``I'm not questioning the validity of the numbers, but I don't think [the new poll] undermines the support that exists in the community for Varela.''
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Herald database editor Tim Henderson contributed to this report.