FIU survey reveals local exiles' views

 BY ANA ACLE

 In the aftermath of the Elián González case, more Cuban exiles than ever before
 believe there will never be major political change in Cuba, according to a poll
 released Thursday by Florida International University.

 While 33 percent of local Cuban exiles said they foresee change on the island
 within 2 to 5 years, a surprising 28 percent said change will never occur -- a
 significant increase from the 9 percent who answered the question that way in
 1991.

 ``We have an exhausted exile community out there that is searching for reasons
 to maintain the ideals and dreams,'' said Guillermo Grenier, director of FIU's
 Center for Labor Research and Studies.

 The exile view contrasts with the national point of view, where a majority of those
 polled said they expect political change within a decade. Only 12 percent of the
 national audience said they expect things to remain the same in Cuba.

 The poll, conducted every odd year since 1991 except for 1999, is specifically
 designed to measure the attitudes of the local Cuban-American community about
 U.S.-Cuba policy and how those attitudes impact Miami-Dade County.

 This year's results show a softening of views among local Cubans on specific
 issues regarding U.S.-Cuba policy, such as allowing medicine sales to the island,
 but a nearly monolithic view on issues such as the Elián González case.

 The Elián case directly impacted exiles' pessimistic views on any foreseeable
 political change in Cuba. It also created a backlash against the Democratic Party.
 An overwhelming majority of exiles said they would vote for George W. Bush in
 the November presidential election. Three years ago, 34 percent of exiles said
 they voted for President Bill Clinton.

 ``More than anything else, the case of Elián has focused the energy of the Cuban
 community,'' Grenier said. ``This and other studies show the diversity of the
 Cuban community. But I must admit, given that diversity, I have never seen a
 community behave in such a monolithic fashion as it did around the Elián affair.''

 Frustration about Cuba's reluctance to embrace democratic changes showed
 throughout the poll. Most local Cubans favored a U.S. invasion or military
 intervention of Cuba, a move strongly opposed by other locals and the national
 audience.

 The majority of those polled overwhelmingly supported human rights groups inside
 Cuba.

 Local Cubans acknowledged the embargo was not working but, in an apparent
 contradiction, overwhelmingly favored tightening it anyway. More than half said
 they would continue to prohibit allowing U.S. companies to do business with the
 island.

 The exceptions: More than half of the exiles said they favored selling medicine
 and food to Cuba, establishing dialogue and permitting unrestricted travel to the
 island.

 ``The [embargo] is a policy that's hard to wipe off the screen,'' Grenier said.
 ``There are contradictions in the community because both [sides] want to try
 anything and many things.''

 FIU experts believe those changes in attitudes come from recent arrivals (after
 1984) and the first generation of Cubans born in the United States. Both groups
 tend to be more willing to try new ways of making changes on the island.

 For example, 52 percent of those born here favor continuing the embargo while 49
 percent favor stopping it. Of those who arrived after 1984, 47 percent favor its
 continuance and 53 percent say it should be dropped.

 ``Almost no one in the group that arrived after 1984 and those born in the United
 States feel change will happen right away,'' said Hugh Gladwin, FIU's director of
 the Institute for Public Opinion Research.

 Neither side feels the other is listening. Local Cubans feel that opinions voicing
 stronger opposition to Fidel Castro are falling on deaf ears, while non-Cubans say
 the same about opinions supporting open relations.

 In the case of the Elián custody fight, everyone agreed that the case hurt the
 Cuban-American community -- even though the groups differ on the outcome.
 Local Cubans still believe the boy should have stayed in this country, while
 non-Cubans locally and others polled nationally said the U.S. government should
 have acted sooner.

 Regarding the Elián case, 46 percent of local Cubans disapprove of Janet Reno
 and 31 percent disapprove of Clinton. Twenty-six percent of local non-Cubans
 disapprove of the Miami relatives and 21 percent disapprove of Miami-Dade Mayor
 Alex Penelas.

 The majority of all locals said that, despite the differences, relations within the
 community stayed the same (60 percent of Cubans and 54 percent of
 non-Cubans). In contrast, 31 percent of Cubans and 37 percent of non-Cubans
 said relations have worsened. Nine percent in each said relations were better.

 To see all of the poll questions, go to www.fiu.edu/orgs/ipor/cuba2000