Seniors, Cuban exiles key forces
BY MARK SILVA
Republican George W. Bush, big brother of Florida's governor,
built his victory in
Florida on a surprisingly strong vote among senior citizens,
traditionally aligned
with Democrats, and overwhelming support among Cuban Americans
disaffected
with the Clinton administration's handling of Cuban affairs.
``Among Cuban Americans, it is spectacular,'' said U.S. Rep. Lincoln
Díaz-Balart,
R-Miami, co-chairman of the Bush campaign in Florida, eyeing
high voter turnout
projections. ``Can you believe these turnouts? It speaks so well
of our
democracy.''
The GOP organization spent millions of dollars here, and the Bushes
campaigned
among massive and adoring crowds that lent them an air of invincibility.
But Gore
campaigned long and hard in Florida, too.
``Six months ago, Florida was written off. It was declared Bush
country,'' said
Florida's senior senator, Democrat Bob Graham of Miami Lakes.
``Al Gore would
not accept that and contested it very aggressively.''
Democrats insisted the popularity of Bush's brother did not guarantee success.
``People vote for a president based on that person . . . and I
do not believe
anybody can transfer a vote to anybody else,'' said Attorney
General Bob
Butterworth, chairman of Gore's Florida campaign. ``We always
said Florida was
in play.''
The magnitude of a female vote for Gore -- especially among working
women --
worked in Gore's favor, according to a Voter News Service survey
for The Herald of
voters leaving the polls.
Add to that a high black voter turnout and Gore came close to winning.
The Voter News Service survey found that women turned out in far
greater
numbers than men and handed a cascade of votes to the vice president.
Fifty-four
percent of Florida's vote was cast by women, three points higher
than in the last
election.
According to the survey, blacks cast 16 percent of Florida's presidential
vote, six
points higher than in 1996.
But the turnout of blacks and women didn't offset Bush's successful
effort to split
with Gore a vote among senior citizens that traditionally goes
to the Democrat.
Jim Kane, a Fort Lauderdale pollster, suggested that Bush's strength
among
senior voters in a race in which Gore campaigned hard on Social
Security and
Medicare shows that an older, traditionally Democratic generation
of aging ``New
Dealers'' is passing on.
Susan MacManus, an author on the political power of senior citizens,
called the
Florida vote ``good news for Bush, because the 65-and-older vote
has traditionally
been the most Democratic group. It means he made inroads into
the senior
population.''
The Clinton administration's handling of the young shipwreck survivor
Elián
González also worked in Bush's favor: Cuban-American voters
in Miami-Dade
County overwhelmingly backed Bush. The Republican has amassed
support
among Cuban Americans that rivals former President Ronald Reagan's
vote in the
1980s.
Clinton had made inroads, capturing as much as 40 percent of the
Cuban vote in
his reelection. But Gore apparently was limited to less than
20 percent of this
influential vote largely because of lingering resentment over
Clinton's handling of
Elián. The gender gap was also apparent in Florida as
women and men took
different sides in a contest that Gore attempted to cast as a
battle over the future
of the Supreme Court itself.
Because the next president may appoint three or more justices,
Gore has
maintained that his support of a woman's right to choose abortion
will ensure a
court that upholds the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling. Bush insisted
he would have
no ``litmus test'' for appointees, but pointed to some of the
most conservative and
anti-abortion justices, such as Clarence Thomas, as his models.
``I think it was an important factor, particularly with middle-aged
women,'' Graham
said.
Gore held a 10-point advantage over Bush among Florida's women,
Bush an
eight-point lead among men. Among working women, Gore's advantage
was
greater: 60 percent to 38 percent.
The Clinton administration's handling of survivor Elián
González also worked in
Bush's favor.
Gore's advantage among black voters was 9-1, traditional for a
Democratic
candidate in Florida.
The Democratic Party, the NAACP, the Rev. Jesse Jackson and others
campaigned hard in Florida to turn out voters alienated by the
governor's ``One
Florida'' initiative. Jeb Bush replaced affirmative action in
state university
admissions with a guarantee that the top fifth of high school
graduates are
admitted.
State Sen. Kendrick Meek, a Miami Democrat who protested Jeb Bush's
move
with a sit-in earlier this year in the governor's office, campaigned
in black
precincts around the state with a simple plea for everyone turning
out to vote:
``Arrive with Five.''
His mother, U.S. Rep. Carrie Meek, D-Miami, proclaimed in a rally
outside the
new Shoppes of Liberty City on NW 54th Street: ``We want a 100
percent turnout
in Liberty City.''
Ultimately, it didn't work.
But Florida offered Democrats at least one gain Tuesday.
Democrat Bill Nelson took one of the nation's few open Senate
seats, which
Republican Connie Mack has held for 12 years.
Yet Republicans maintained a comfortable edge in both houses of
the state
Legislature and it appeared that the GOP's two candidates for
open state Cabinet
seats would prevail.
Overshadowing all these contests was the one race in which the
Republican
Party of Florida invested most heavily, raising and spending
millions of dollars on
a personal cause for Florida's governor.
Asked about pressure to deliver Florida, Jeb Bush said: ``I feel
pressure as a
brother.'' But he said he had not ``guaranteed'' his brother
victory.
``The notion that this was a lock I have rejected from the beginning,''
Jeb Bush
said midway through Election Day. ``Because I know the state
pretty well. This is
a pretty dynamic place.''
The Herald Capital Bureau's Steve Bousquet and staff writers Tyler
Bridges and
Phil Long contributed to this report.