Cuban-American politicians, long dominant in Miami-Dade County, are now trying to make their influence felt more in state and national races.

BY PETER WALLSTEN

Florida's Cuban-American politicians, long limited to success in the state's Spanish-speaking areas, are about to find out whether the skills honed on Calle Ocho translate to the fish fries and possum festivals that define campaigns in the rest of the state.

The biggest test looms next year, when two Cuban Americans could face off as their parties' nominees for U.S. Senate -- a potential historic moment for a minority that has lived here in large numbers for 40 years but has never produced a statewide contender.

The matchup could happen if U.S. Housing Secretary Mel Martínez, from the Orlando area, decides in the coming days to run. If he were to survive a competitive Republican primary, the Cuban-born Martínez could face Miami-Dade County Mayor Alex Penelas, a Cuban-American Democrat who is running for his party's nomination against two rivals.

Another major test was seemingly passed in recent days, when state Rep. Marco Rubio secured enough votes from his legislative colleagues to be designated the state House speaker in 2006. If Rubio, a Miami Republican, maintains his mandate, he would become the first Cuban American to achieve that lofty post, thrusting him into a national spotlight just as the GOP struggles to appeal for Hispanic voters nationwide.

The convergence of events marks what Cuban-American leaders and political experts call a threshold moment for a group that has long been viewed as a critical voting bloc for presidents, senators and governors -- capable of swaying U.S. foreign policy on Cuba -- but never actually producing leaders to compete at the state and national levels.

Al Cárdenas, the state Republican Party chairman from 1998 to 2002 and the first Cuban American to head the Florida GOP, calls the coming days pivotal in proving whether voters on a mass scale are ready to empower a minority courted by party bosses.

''This is the stage where we see, will the voter at large feel the same way as the leadership in our respective parties?'' Cárdenas said. ``That's what's going to be tested if Mel jumps in and now that Alex is in the picture.''

SHIFTING IMAGE

Until now, the prevailing view of Cuban-American politicians outside Miami-Dade County, experts say, has been shaped by the community's passionate concern about the regime of Cuban President Fidel Castro. That was symbolized for many by the exile community's response to the Elián González case, when local leaders tried to block the boy's return to his father on the island -- a position viewed with disdain by many outside Miami.

The new image, they say, is characterized largely by a generational shift in Cuban-American politics due in part to term limits in the Legislature. Gone are the old-guard Miami exiles focused on Castro, replaced by younger, more Americanized lawmakers who focus on education policy, criminal justice, health and other issues.

They can drink café con leche in the Versailles restaurant or, as Penelas and Rubio have done in their statewide efforts, glad-hand in Panama City and Jacksonville.

''This is the beginning of the next step in an evolution of the Cuban-American community,'' said Rubio, 32, a former West Miami city commissioner who was elected to the House in 2000 and, for the past year, has served as a key lieutenant to Speaker Johnnie Byrd.

Experts liken the Cuban Americans' path to those of other ethnic groups in the United States, such as Irish Catholics and Jews, that ultimately gained acceptance from voters. The 2004 election, they say, could be for Cubans what 1960 was for Catholics when John Kennedy was elected president.

''These aren't the old-fashioned Cuban politicians,'' said Dario Moreno, a Florida International University political scientist who studies ethnic politics, referring to the Cuban legislative delegation in Tallahassee. ``These are American politicians that happen to be Cuban, just like JFK was an American politician who happened to be Irish Catholic.''

As that test unfolds, both parties have a great deal at stake, both in Florida and across the country as they work to woo an increasingly large and unpredictable bloc of Hispanic voters.

While the traditionally Republican-leaning Cuban-American bloc that dominates Miami politics contrasts sharply with the typically Democratic non-Cuban Hispanics in Central Florida and other immigrant-heavy states such as Texas, New York and California, party strategists say that a high-profile Cuban American elected statewide in Florida would still make a big symbolic statement.

Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe met recently with Cuban-American leaders during a party gathering in New Mexico to discuss strategy, while several of the nine Democratic candidates for president have been honing their stances on policy toward Cuba in the hope of winning votes in South Florida.

For their part, Rubio, Martínez and Penelas are well positioned to ease Cuban Americans into the mainstream of Florida politics. But each, too, faces complications tied to his ethnicity.

Martínez is considered a moderate on Cuba issues, and he doesn't have the support of many of Miami-Dade's Cuban-American leaders. Penelas is likely to face questions from Democratic primary voters about his comments during the Elián crisis. And Rubio has been criticized by some within his party for pressuring the Bush administration on Cuba issues.

TEENAGE REFUGEE

Martínez, 57, fled Cuba in 1962 as part of the Roman Catholic relief program Pedro Pan, which helped thousands of children escape the island. He grew up in Orlando, not Miami, and went on to be elected chairman of Orange County, a region where politics is dominated by non-Hispanic whites, blacks and Puerto Ricans, and where Castro is not an issue.

The White House -- eager to shore up Hispanic support across the country and soothe tensions with South Florida exile leaders as the president faces reelection -- has been urging Martínez for months to enter the Senate race. If he does not run for the Senate, Martínez is seen as a likely 2006 candidate for governor.

But Martínez, who could not be reached for comment, is considered a moderate on Cuba issues such as the U.S. trade embargo -- a point that could give him trouble in a GOP primary in which old-guard exile voters still play a vital role. Martínez says he would win broad support among Cuban-American voters, but he would have to campaign without the help of many key elected leaders.

Cuban-American state House members are sticking by Byrd, a non-Hispanic white legislator from rural Plant City who is also running for the Senate. Cuban-American senators have made it clear they will back a non-Hispanic white colleague, state Sen. Daniel Webster of suburban Orlando. Lincoln Díaz-Balart and Mario Díaz-Balart, brothers and Republican members of Congress from Miami, are supporting former U.S. Rep. Bill McCollum, from the Orlando suburbs.

MAYOR'S PROSPECTS

Penelas, one of only a few high-profile Cuban-American Democrats in Miami-Dade, is considered by many in his party to be an underdog in the primary against U.S. Rep. Peter Deutsch of Pembroke Pines and former state Education Commissioner Betty Castor. A recent Mason-Dixon poll showed Castor with a wide lead.

More than most, Penelas remains saddled with the Elián affair, thanks to a highly publicized threat to stand up to federal officials if they tried to remove the boy. In recent months, though, Penelas has acknowledged that he ''let my emotions go'' in the controversy, and has moved to build a statewide network of non-Cuban Hispanics and blacks.

Rubio says that his ethnicity was rarely an issue as he crisscrossed the state looking for votes.

Still, there were signs that electing a Cuban American to a job long dominated by white men from Orlando to the Panhandle was a point of discomfort in some circles.

As Rubio netted more votes this month, an anonymous flier was distributed to lawmakers, accusing him of ''crimes against Republicans,'' noting that he signed a letter to the White House suggesting that the president risked losing his support in the community if he did not stiffen his policies against Castro.

Nevertheless, Rubio secured the votes for the speakership days later when several rivals stepped aside. Now he has three years to keep his coalition together -- meaning that he will be a major political player in state House campaigns next year and in 2006.

Rubio could well encounter Martínez and Penelas -- each facing far different challenges and goals but with a unifying significance in the history books.

''Penelas, Martínez and Marco Rubio are not happening in isolation,'' said Moreno, the political scientist. ``These things are connected.''