Some, frustrated, see stalemate on Castro

By Amie Parnes, Globe Correspondent

MIAMI -- As Cuban-American men gathered in small groups in front of Versailles, a popular Cuban restaurant here, trading the latest gossip from their birthplace over cafe con leche and Dominican cigars, Frank Chinea shared a secret.
 
"I can't say this very loud," he said in almost a whisper, several feet away from men who regard George W. Bush, Bush's father, Ronald Reagan, and other Republicans as heroes. "But I'm voting for John Kerry."

Chinea, 51, a registered independent voter, said he was tired of rhetoric; President Bush, he said, made empty promises in the months leading to the 2000 election. "I believe Bush has done a lot of good things, but Cuba is not one of them."

Like Chinea, more Cuban-Americans have begun to do some political soul-searching, unhappy with the Bush administration's handling of Cuban affairs. A recent poll indicated that an increasing number of Cuban-Americans -- one of the Republican Party's key constituencies -- felt the administration had done little to support the issue most important to them: how to bring an end to the Fidel Castro regime.

In the poll, compiled for Univision-23, a local Spanish-language television station in Miami, one-third of the Hispanic voters surveyed in South Florida, 70 percent of whom are Cuban-American, said the current administration had done a poor job of "promoting democracy and regime change" in Cuba. The poll signals that the Republican Party could lose a considerable number of voters who supported conservative candidates in the past, said Rob Schroth, a Washington pollster who conducted the survey of 400 voters.

"At some point, frustration sets in," Schroth said. "That frustration has obviously started now. For Cuban-Americans, it has been 30 years of promises."

The poll gives Democrats a new burst of energy, strategists said, adding that Senator John F. Kerry could win Florida if the party could lure some of the Republican and independent Cuban-American voters in South Florida. President Clinton received 40 percent of the Cuban-American vote in 1996 and walked away with a victory in Florida.

But in 2000, Vice President Al Gore was virtually shut out in the Cuban-American community, where rage over the Elian Gonzalez custody battle still lingered and the community denounced the Clinton administration for taking the boy in a predawn raid and sending him back to Cuba.

Bush has made efforts in recent months by promising to crack down on illegal travel to the island and appointing a special commission headed by Secretary of State Colin L. Powell. The panel, Bush said, would develop ways to assist the Cuban people in bringing a peaceful end to the Castro dictatorship while establishing democratic institutions and a free economy in Cuba. Bush has also promised more help to Cuban dissidents in reaching the United States.

Some Cuban-Americans, though, said they wonder about the timing of the administration's measures as Bush seeks reelection.

The Cuban-American community "expected significant action from President Bush and the current administration," said Jaime Suchlicki, the director of the Institute for Cuban and Cuban American studies at the University of Miami. "And in return they received a lot of rhetoric. They are tired of rhetoric. They want action. So now they wonder if the administration is really delivering what Bush promised."

Alex Perez, 52, a bus driver, hears a similar dialogue on his daily routes. "A lot of the Cuban people here feel Bush takes us for granted," he said. "He went and took care of a dictator in Iraq, but what about the dictator right underneath us?"

"He's fooling everyone," said Perez, who fled Cuba in 1967. "I think the Republican Party is going to be very surprised when they see that more Cubans in Miami are going more to the middle."

Anthony Russo, 28, voted for Bush in 2000 because he thought the younger Bush would emulate his father. "I thought his father was a great president," he said. But as time wore on, Russo said, he began to have second thoughts.

"He told us that he didn't like Castro and that he would fight for democracy in Cuba," Russo said, tugging at a gold chain with a Cuban medallion. "But it never happened. Castro is still around doing the same kinds of things and Bush is running again for reelection."

Still, inside Versailles, Pedro Gomez, 51, a banker who immigrated to Miami as a child, said he was more than pleased with Bush's first term. "What people don't understand is that he is the president of approximately 300 million Americans," said Gomez, who voted for only one Democrat, Jimmy Carter, in his lifetime. "[Bush] has so many issues and policies and so many people to please. It is an honor for me, even if it is in the last months of his presidency, that he imposed sanctions on Cuba. It is commendable."

And a victory in Florida for Kerry would be difficult, Cuban Americans here say. "He leans too much to the left," said Juan A. Pena, a retired machinist from Miami.

Many in the community are not particularly sure where Kerry stands on Cuban issues or whether they can trust his campaign promises.

In recent years, Kerry has said that the US has a "frozen, stalemated, counterproductive policy," with Cuba

affected by "the politics of Florida." Kerry has said he would not lift economic sanctions against Cuba, but would like to ease travel restrictions.

Cuban-Americans "will not rush to vote for Kerry," Suchlicki said. "But I think the administration's policies have caused enough doubt that I think . . . it will be just enough for the Democratic Party."

© Copyright 2004 Globe Newspaper Company.