El Salvador vote recalls cold-war power play
Salvadorans choose a new president on Sunday.
By Catherine Elton | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
SAN SALVADOR - On the stump the right-wing presidential candidate touts
his tight relations with the United States government and
warns of a communist threat. The left-wing party is running a former guerrilla
commander and avowed communist. The US is taking sides.
Twelve years have passed since a peace accord ended El Salvador's bitter
civil war and closed the curtain on one of the US's hottest
cold-war theaters. But Friday, on the eve of Sunday's presidential elections,
this tiny Central American nation seems to have gone back in
time. Its relationship with the US is at the center of the country's political
debate once again.
US officials are even making highly controversial statements that hint
that relations, including immigration policy, could be affected if the
leftist candidate wins.
"A lot of the [US] State Department's high-level people concerned with
Latin America came out of the cold-war era, and they continue to
see Latin America through that lens," says Geoff Thale of the Washington
Office on Latin America, a nongovernmental organization. "From
the Central America perspective, relations with the United States are important,
not because they need to fight off guerrilla insurgencies or
negotiate a peace accord, but because, among other reasons, Central America
survives on migration."
Indeed, one of the cornerstones of the campaign by the Nationalist Republican
Alliance (ARENA), the ruling party, is immigration and the
remittances migrants send home. More than a quarter of El Salvador's 6.5
million citizens live in the US, and Salvadoran economist Robert
Rubio estimates that remittances account for 16 percent of the country's
economy. He likens the flow of remittances to a life-support
system for the country's poor economy.
At a rally in San Miguel - in the eastern part of the country where emigration
rates are high - right-wing ARENA candidate Tony Saca, a
sportscaster turned radio magnate who is leading in opinion polls, asked
the crowd to think about what a win by the leftist Faribundo Marti
National Liberation Front (FMLN) and its candidate, Schafik Handal, a former
guerrilla commander, would mean for remittances.
"The administration that assures tranquility for our brothers in the United
States is ARENA and Mr. Saca, because we have good relations
with the United States," he bellowed to the crowd.
Saca's message strikes a chord with voters like unemployed Mirna Hernandez
who lives off remittances sent by her relatives in the US.
"Tony Saca has good relations with the United States, and according to
what we've heard, if the FMLN wins, the United States is going to
deport the Salvadorans" who live there, she says.
The US Embassy explained this week that visas and deportations are based
on legal, not political, criteria. Still, the ARENA message may
well be working.
"I have no way to measure it, but I have no doubt that this message has
an impact," says Miguel Cruz, director of the public opinion
institute at the University of Central America in San Salvador. "Among
less-educated voters in rural areas this could make people decide to
vote for ARENA."
And some analysts say that the comments by US officials may be bolstering
ARENA's message. Last Sunday, White House Special
Assistant Otto Reich gave a phone-in press conference at ARENA headquarters.
According to local newspapers, he said he was worried
about the impact an FMLN win could have on the country's "economic, commercial,
and migratory relations with the United States."
In February, Assistant Secretary of State Roger Noriega told voters to
"consider what kind of a relationship they want a new administration
to have with us." He met with all the candidates except Mr. Handal. Last
week, 28 US Congress members sent a letter to Secretary of
State Colin Powell saying Mr. Noriega "crossed a boundary" and that his
remarks were perceived as "interference in Salvadoran electoral
affairs." This week two US congressmen blasted Reich's comments as inflammatory.
In the end, Washington may not have anything to worry about. Saca has as
much as a 25-point lead over Handal in polls. Two other
candidates are polling in the single digits. If no candidate wins more
than 50 percent of the vote, the top two vote getters will advance to a
runoff in May.